posted on Aug, 1 2005 @ 11:12 AM
China can invade Taiwan any time, but is unlikely to do that soon. There has been no balance of arms between the straits since mid-90's. Now China
has the capability of wipe out organized resistances in in Taiwan in 36 hour. Most of the Taiwan fighter jets (Even those hide in caves),
communications, power, water, port facilities, base, rader networks, would be knocked out within the first few hours of the war. Any large troops
would be destroyed by deadly bombs only next to full-fledged NK bomb.
The US military might is a concern, but is not the biggest fact for China in deciding if and when to draw the guns. China had fought direct or
indirect wars with the US, and never lost one. In addition, China has been watching US military adventures around the world for many year, and has
draw the conclusion that the US can only win the insymitrical wars like in Iraq and Afganistan. If the US does intervine, China will make sure that
the war is fought on equal footing, or let's say any American aircraft or missile would no longer be invisible, and NK strikes would be answered and
retaliated. China is almost there, not 100%, but close.
The US still have many advanced weapons that China doesn't have, but China also has a number of Assassin's maces that the American don't even know.
To bad that Taiwan may bring China and the US into a major conflict that could lead the world into a dark age. Don't know who is wrong and who is
right, that can only be judge by results.
China IS capable of taking Taiwan anytime from now, but the country has a habit of always preparing for the worst, that's why it's military,
especially the NK capability keeps growing fast.
Many people like to quote "China menace". But few like to admit that China has its own security concerns (Taiwan being the biggest one). Now the US
"defencive arms" is right on China's door step, but few would bother to ask how Chinese feel. If there is such a menace, then that is exclusively
targeted at Taiwan independent forces and possible foreign interventions, not the other peaceful neighbors.
The US has a agenda, to pitch China and Japan against each other, every educated Chinese know about it. Is it going to work? don't know. After all,
Chinese does hate Japanese. To the US, Japan is just a tained dog, but I bet no one can be sure if Japan will turn into wolf again.
If China fought with Japan over Taiwan issue, I am sure it would be a fight that can only have one survivor. China would use NK if she felt that the
war could not be won by conventional ways. Then the ball would be in the US's court, should they give JPs NKs? I guess yes. But I doubt Japan could
survive, while China probably can.
NMD&TMD? to me, they don't have much weight at this stage. The theory of using bullets to hit bullets is foundamentally flawed. The future laser
weapons will be far more effective. Fortunately, China lead the US in this area for 3 or 5 years. When laser weapons systems are widely in use in both
the US and China, both will get new headaches, the American's more serious - the value of their NK deterance will be seriously discounted.
I wish the US and China never fight each other again. If the war started, it would not be possible to controll the duration and scale, not even the
US. If the US think they can just copy the strategy and tactics in Iraq and Yugoslavia and win a air campain against China, they will be making a huge
mistake. The US will find their satelite down, Aircraft carriers sunk, planes lost in the most dense air-defence fire ever in human history, and
Taiwan will fall - it's just less than 150 miles from China and can't walk away.
[edit on 1-8-2005 by puri]