Russia’s economy holds up. Over half of international companies keep doing business with Russia

2 news article mashup show why we are locked into a "forever war" in Ukraine. One big reason for Russia’s resilience: record fossil fuel earnings of $325 billion last year as prices spiked. The surging costs stemmed from fears that the war would mean a severe loss of energy from the world’s third-largest oil producer. Our fear of higher prices fueled Russia to record earnings in fossil fuels, that doesn't sound like a sound green plan.

Only 191 foreign companies have left Russia, and 1169 are "working" to do so. More than that are staying or taking the wait-and-see approach.

In a real-world war, Russia would have seized all companies from any country it deemed an adversary, or NATO countries would strongly discourage thier national companies from operating there.

Am I wrong? honestly I hope so or we likely have 3-4 more years of status quo at the very best

www.investmentmonitor.ai...

More than half of international companies keep doing business with Russia one year after the invasion of Ukraine

The majority of international companies that had ties to Russia at the start of 2022 continue to do business in the country, a new analysis of 3,078 multinationals reveals.

New data from the Kyiv School of Economics has found that 1,717 (56%) of international companies that had ties to Russia at the start of 2022 continue to do
business with the country.

Of the companies that had a local Russian subsidiary at the start of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, only one in ten has completed the liquidation or sale of its Russian business. The remaining companies paid at least $18bn in taxes to Russia in 2021 – enough to fund Russia’s war against Ukraine for two months.

“One year after the invasion and nine years since the beginning of Russia’s aggression, this is far too little progress,” said Eleanor Nichol, executive director of B4Ukraine, an international coalition of more than 80 civil society organisations. “While G7 governments have been supporting Ukraine, providing billions of pounds in support, almost 1,000 of their major companies have chosen to continue doing business with the regime – continuing to pay taxes, indirectly supporting this horrific war and undermining sanctions.”

When compared with the group’s contributions in aid, for every $7 G7 governments declare in bilateral aid to Ukraine, its companies may still be paying $1 in taxes to the Russian state. Companies in France, Germany, Italy and Japan have the poorest records when it comes to withdrawal. This has now long been the case, as shown by analysis from Investment Monitor. In mid-2022, we that found British, Canadian and US companies were leading the G7’s corporate exodus, while Italian, French, Japanese and German ones lagged far behind.

apnews.com...

While 191 foreign companies have left Russia and 1,169 are working to do so, some 1,223 are staying and 496 are taking a wait-and-see approach, according to a database compiled by the Kyiv School of Economics.

Companies are facing public pressure from Kyiv and Washington, but some have found it’s not so easy to line up a Russian buyer or say they’re selling essentials like food.

Moscow residents, meanwhile, have downplayed the impact of sanctions.

“Maybe it hasn’t affected me yet,” 63-year-old retiree Alexander Yeryomenko said. “I think that we will endure everything.”

Dmitry, a 33-year-old who declined to give his last name, said only clothing brands had changed.

“We have had even worse periods of time in history, and we coped,” he said, but added that “we need to develop our own production and not to depend on the import of products.”

One big reason for Russia’s resilience: record fossil fuel earnings of $325 billion last year as prices spiked. The surging costs stemmed from fears that the war would mean a severe loss of energy from the world’s third-largest oil producer.

a reply to: putnam6

I agree that western businesses have not completely divorced themselves from Russia, but I would argue a lot more companies have left the country, reducing product and services.

In my own industry for example, manufacturers from outside of Russia have closed their regional sales/distribution offices. I think this would represent a significant number of companies pulling out of the country, that would have a significant impact on availability of specialized product/equipment.

a reply to: putnam6

It will likely take years, but down the road, I think we will find out some of the same names funded both sides of this conflict. There, I said it.

a reply to: putnam6

This bring memories of Iraq and Iran conflict when US slapped sanctions on them two countries, but American and international big companies were still having business with them, remember the whistleblower that show the paper with all the US companies by name?, but the only problem was that all of them were black out.

Wars are only for the fools, for the big elites and globalist is business as usua.

a reply to: putnam6

It would be nice if Russia withdrew, maybe bring in India to be transitional peacekeepers. End this conflict and go back to peaceful trade.

originally posted by: Klassified
a reply to: putnam6

It will likely take years, but down the road, I think we will find out some of the same names funded both sides of this conflict. There, I said it.

How old school can you get, Klass! What's past history got to do with understanding this manufactured 'war'?

a reply to: Tebus
McDonald's quit, but a Russian firm bought them out I believe.
I understand that companies who already had pre-existing contracts with Russia did not have to comply with the sanctions. But if their contracts had renewal date they would not be allowed to re-new. This was in the UK, but they gave companies/NGO's about a month, which gave them time to re-new those contracts I guess
Rainbows
Jane

Most Western Banks are the ones falling.
One thing you dont see on MSM how they arent blaming the sanctions for the rise of inflation and food items.

The UniParties and Globalists thought they could simply destroy Russia economically and start protests in Russia.

Unfortunately for the war mongers perhaps they should seek an actually peaceful resolution in Ukraine instated.

One where the US isn't the one in charge of the dealing for the peaceful negotiations.

a reply to: putnam6

The problem is who supplies the figures on the Russian economy , the truth may differ.

The second pillar of Russia’s disinformation involves delaying the publication of poor data. This is precisely what happened a few days after the IMF released its optimistic number, when the Russian Federal State Statistics Service suddenly postponed the release of actual GDP data for December 2022 and the full year. With no Russian number for actual GDP to go by, most Russia watchers mistakenly assumed that the IMF estimate was the official recession number. Since the IMF was far more bullish on the Russian economy than expert consensus, this confusion served the Kremlin’s interests well.

Moscow finally released a single growth number with a two-week delay: a 2.1 GDP decline over all of 2022, just about the same as the optimistic IMF estimate. Yet it is unclear how Russian statisticians even came up with their figure; verification is impossible because they have still not released GDP data for the fourth quarter of 2022. Assembling the pieces of this statistical puzzle paints an intriguing picture: If the full-year recession figure is 2.1 percent, as Russia claims, then doing the math using already reported data for the first three quarters of 2022 results in a GDP drop of around 4 percent in the fourth quarter of 2022 compared to the fourth quarter of 2021.

This is theoretically possible, but available figures on Russia’s economy in the fourth quarter suggest a steeper contraction. In December 2022, Russia’s own official statistics showed that industrial production and retail sales recorded their steepest annual drops in almost three years, suggesting a deep slowdown in activity. The prices for oil massively receded in late 2022, which weighed on exports. Finally, Russia’s imports bounced back in the fourth quarter from the lows reached earlier in the year, further weighing on GDP.
foreignpolicy.com...

Russia's economy is probably being held up by all of the defence spending the Kremlin are doing but still fell by 2.1%.

originally posted by: Tebus
a reply to: putnam6

I agree that western businesses have not completely divorced themselves from Russia, but I would argue a lot more companies have left the country, reducing product and services.

In my own industry for example, manufacturers from outside of Russia have closed their regional sales/distribution offices. I think this would represent a significant number of companies pulling out of the country, that would have a significant impact on availability of specialized product/equipment.

Hell, I know businesses that have pulled out of Russia too but... if you are gonna argue then it needs to be more than your anecdotal opinion.


The article is actually from the Kyiv School of Economics. You know as in Kyiv Ukraine, and AP news, do their findings sound ambiguous or uninformed? As wary as I am about America's relationship with Ukraine, how much we are sending, and how it's probably prolonging the inevitable. I can easily see a university project to actually tally and find this out. Even AP news still has an air of legitimacy compared to other western sources

Do you have another source or do you know personally the situations of the alleged 1717 international companies still doing business in Russia?

kse.ua...

New data from the Kyiv School of Economics has found that 1,717 (56%) of international companies that had ties to Russia at the start of 2022 continue to do business with the country.

Of the companies that had a local Russian subsidiary at the start of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, only one in ten has completed the liquidation or sale of its Russian business. The remaining companies paid at least $18bn in taxes to Russia in 2021 – enough to fund Russia’s war against Ukraine for two months.

originally posted by: gortex
a reply to: putnam6

The problem is who supplies the figures on the Russian economy , the truth may differ.

The second pillar of Russia’s disinformation involves delaying the publication of poor data. This is precisely what happened a few days after the IMF released its optimistic number, when the Russian Federal State Statistics Service suddenly postponed the release of actual GDP data for December 2022 and the full year. With no Russian number for actual GDP to go by, most Russia watchers mistakenly assumed that the IMF estimate was the official recession number. Since the IMF was far more bullish on the Russian economy than expert consensus, this confusion served the Kremlin’s interests well.

Moscow finally released a single growth number with a two-week delay: a 2.1 GDP decline over all of 2022, just about the same as the optimistic IMF estimate. Yet it is unclear how Russian statisticians even came up with their figure; verification is impossible because they have still not released GDP data for the fourth quarter of 2022. Assembling the pieces of this statistical puzzle paints an intriguing picture: If the full-year recession figure is 2.1 percent, as Russia claims, then doing the math using already reported data for the first three quarters of 2022 results in a GDP drop of around 4 percent in the fourth quarter of 2022 compared to the fourth quarter of 2021.

This is theoretically possible, but available figures on Russia’s economy in the fourth quarter suggest a steeper contraction. In December 2022, Russia’s own official statistics showed that industrial production and retail sales recorded their steepest annual drops in almost three years, suggesting a deep slowdown in activity. The prices for oil massively receded in late 2022, which weighed on exports. Finally, Russia’s imports bounced back in the fourth quarter from the lows reached earlier in the year, further weighing on GDP.
foreignpolicy.com...

Russia's economy is probably being held up by all of the defence spending the Kremlin are doing but still fell by 2.1%.

Im not suggesting Russia isn't taking a hit, Im suggesting it isn't enough to force an end to their Special Military Operation, which is what we were sold as the purpose for all the NATO countries' military and financial support.
It didn't end the war in year one and it's likely not gonna end in year two.
This means double the destruction, double the deaths, and double the expenditure of arms and finances for every year we are engaged in this money pit of a war

The article showed where Russia had record profits on fossil fuels, thats not really defensive spending

Then we have this from Bloomberg seems they have enough buyers of the grain at cheap prices available to help starve off collapse

If there is an renewal of the grain deal on March 18th, it will definitely be a shot in the arm to Russia's overall economy, and my simplistic understanding is if the grain deal isn't done lots of developing nations will go hungry.

ie between a rock and a hard place...

We have had a year, did any NATO country step up its grain production so we aren't reliant on Russian wheat to feed the 3rd world? I don't know but I'll check and FWIW there are 2 sectors that have nothing to do with defense spending.

I'll add I hope I am wrong, and look forward to being proven wrong.just not seeing it so far

www.bloomberg.com...

Russia Wheat Exports Nearly Double What They Were Before War
Russia’s wheat sales have jumped, but Ukraine’s have struggled
The Black Sea grain-export deal is up for renewal in mid-March

www.thenationalnews.com...

Russia has repeatedly claimed that western sanctions are negatively affecting its agricultural exports in an effort to possibly block the renewal of a crucial grain deal next week, but data provided to The National suggest an overall increase in Russian fertilizer and wheat exports in 2022.

This does not mean that the sanctions, which have not been imposed on agricultural products or fertilizers, have not affected Russian exports, said Joseph Glauber, senior research fellow at food security think tank IFPRI and former chief economist at the US Department of Agriculture.

Because of the opacity of Russia's export figures, there is simply not enough public data to jump to such conclusions.

By escalating threats shortly before the grain deal's renewal date on March 18, Russia might be hoping to renegotiate the deal on more favorable terms. Moscow made similar statements before the last renewal in November but agreed to it anyway.

“There’s been a lot of popular support among developing countries for this deal. I think there will be a lot of pressure for it to be extended,” Mr Glauber told The National.

The Black Sea grain initiative was brokered by the UN and Turkey in July to prevent a global food crisis by allowing Ukrainian grain, blockaded during Russia’s invasion, to be safely exported from three ports. Russia and Ukraine are among the world’s largest grain and fertilizer exporters.

You can bet that most of the companies that supposedly left Russia are actually still operating there, via a shell company.
It's what they all did in South Africa.

Heck, all of the McDonalds in Russia have since re-opened under some other name. Ostensibly they were taken over by a Russian entrepreneur, but probably he's just a middleman hired by Mickey D's to provide deniability.

originally posted by: infolurker
a reply to: putnam6

It would be nice if Russia withdrew, maybe bring in India to be transitional peacekeepers. End this conflict and go back to peaceful trade.

I agree 100 percent, India would be perfect in this situation globally but I'm not gonna lie, it bothers me how close this has pushed them to Russia in comparison to its previous relationship with America. Regardless if they could find a way to end this sooner rather than later, its something Id wish they would consider

originally posted by: AndyFromMichigan
You can bet that most of the companies that supposedly left Russia are actually still operating there, via a shell company.
It's what they all did in South Africa.

Heck, all of the McDonalds in Russia have since re-opened under some other name. Ostensibly they were taken over by a Russian entrepreneur, but probably he's just a middleman hired by Mickey D's to provide deniability.

Exactly where in the west, some believe the sanctions will eventually cripple Russia's economy and force Putin's hand. The reality is it hasn't upset the average Russian day enough to put pressure on Putin.

I suspect the thinkers behind this knew this when they decided to participate at such a high level of involvement, and if they didn't perhaps they should be our thinkers making the decisions that lead to forever Special Military Operations.

We can't bring Russia to its knees economically without seriously stressing the 3rd world's ability to feed itself.

originally posted by: putnam6

originally posted by: infolurker
a reply to: putnam6

It would be nice if Russia withdrew, maybe bring in India to be transitional peacekeepers. End this conflict and go back to peaceful trade.

I agree 100 percent, India would be perfect in this situation globally but I'm not gonna lie, it bothers me how close this has pushed them to Russia in comparison to its previous relationship with America. Regardless if they could find a way to end this sooner rather than later, its something Id wish they would consider

It's also pushed Saudi Arabia toward Russia. The petrodollar is now effectively dead.