Russia Ukraine Update Thread - part 3

a reply to: Islandparty

Trenches often have grenade sumps. I expect if a drone drops one into a trench with a sump, the ordnance would go down into the sump. Would chicken wire at an angle over the trench work ? In some cases, yes. A lot depends on the earthworks and if they incorporate overhead cover.

Fixed defenses like trenches and forts are not gone as defensive measures, but as you mention, advances in technology have made them more vulnerable ... until the other side runs out of high tech gear. I suspect this is one problem dogging the Russian air force; keeping jets flying depends on a steady supply of spare parts and good maintenance crews. Supply of parts may be a problem for them and probably for Ukraine as well.

Cheers

20 November Update

* Russian and Ukrainian sources reported ongoing fighting along the Svatove-Kreminna line on November 20. Russian sources noted that deteriorating weather conditions are impacting hostilities.

* A Ukrainian military official stated that Ukrainian forces have liberated 12 settlements in Luhansk Oblast since the start of the eastern counteroffensive.

* The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed to strike a Ukrainian troop concentration in the area of Novoselivske, Luhansk Oblast.

* Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and western Donetsk directions.

* Ukrainian officials reported that Russian forces continued to transfer some forces from the east (left) bank of the Dnipro River to other operational directions, but still maintain a significant force presence in southern Kherson Oblast.

More at URL above.

Cheers

If this is true in this article it's disgusting and shows they dont respect even own troops


burning bodys in landfill

a reply to: Kenzo

of course they dont respect their own troops they keep feeding them into the meat grinder because putin cannot admit they have no strategic goals. its only a matter of time until crimea comes under fire and russia will need to fall back again...

a reply to: LouisCypher

Probably tactical nukes.

Interesting first footage of Tornado-S which is basically big HIMARS. 300 mm rockets compared to 227 mm rockets.

twitter.com...

originally posted by: peacewarrior4
Interesting first footage of Tornado-S which is basically big HIMARS. 300 mm rockets compared to 227 mm rockets.

twitter.com...

Close, but russia's actual 'claims' are that the average precision of tornado-s in Ukraine has been 15-21 feet, where repeated (consistent) evidence of HIMARS performance is in the 3 foot range.

Also, russia's 'claim' can only be mathematically true if russia only included the tornado-s missiles that actually came close to the target in it's 'average' since there is plenty of video evidence of some tormado-s missiles being nearly a mile off target (sometimes they even land in areas where no target can be found for miles in any direction)

Also 2, tornado-s missiles are missing certain HIMARS in-flight capabilities that have so far prevented russia from shooting many (maybe any) down so far, where shooting down a tornado-s doesn't appear to have been any more difficult than any other russian missile.

Also 3, tornado-s warheads aren't anything 'special', not bad, but they aren't 'special' like HIMARS.

Also 4, russia's claim of 15-21 foot precision doesn't appear to be supported by any kind of evidence, even AFTER removing the missiles that didn't come anywhere near the target from their calculation (russia is lying about 15-21 foot average).

tornado IS about the best that russia has in this category, and IS a significant threat to Ukraine, but russia has several more generations of development to go before it can be compared to current day HIMARS with a straight face.

It is reported Russia received transfer of technology from Iran to locally manufacture Shahed-136 under the designation Geran-2. Of course, the engine are imported from China. The microchip might be imported from China or might be locally built by Angstrem / Mikron at Zelenograd.

link

It is reported Russia has received a new batch of Su-30SM2 AKA Super Sukhoi which have Irbis-E radar of Su-35 and French made HUD replaced by Su-35's Russian made HUD. These are also reportedly equipped with modern link enabling it to control attack drones such as Hunter-B.

link

a reply to: ShowTheEvidence

There is no evidence M30/31 is more accurate than 9M544. Sure, it can hit a bridge if you fire hundreds of rockets at it. But then again, so can 9M544.

21 November Update

* A Ukrainian official acknowledged that Ukrainian forces are conducting a military operation on the Kinburn Spit, Mykolaiv Oblast.

* Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations in eastern Ukraine amid worsening weather conditions.

* Russian forces continued ground assaults near Bakhmut and Avdiivka.

* Russian forces continued conducting defensive measures and establishing fortifications in Kherson Oblast south of the Dnipro River as Ukrainian forces continued striking Russian force accumulations in southern Ukraine.

More at URL above.

Cheers

originally posted by: peacewarrior4
a reply to: ShowTheEvidence

There is no evidence M30/31 is more accurate than 9M544. Sure, it can hit a bridge if you fire hundreds of rockets at it. But then again, so can 9M544.

Perhaps you should actually look at the Antonovsky bridge.

That wasn't a random pattern, and there were ZERO misses.

This was repeatedly hit with penetrator rounds (non explosive) in a precision pattern in order to Swiss cheese the road surface over the course of several weeks without damaging the concrete beams and supports under that surface.

This was done because Ukraine only wanted to prevent russian armor from crossing, not civilian cars, and they definately didn't want to drop a span.

Let us know when tornado-s, or ANY russian system, can do that from 30 miles away in all weather conditions and I'll be properly impressed. THAT will be the moment tornado can match current day HIMARS in at least the most basic ways (the older ones we gave Ukraine anyway). That moment is AT LEAST a decade away for russia, so it won't be until long after russia surrenders to Ukraine.

a reply to: F2d5thCavv2

* Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations in eastern Ukraine amid worsening weather conditions

I still see ZERO indications anywhere that Ukraine intends to take any kind of winter pause, in fact they appear to be going through the same offensive prep work that we've watched them do twice before.

If I were a betting man, I might bet the house that Ukraine is planning the largest counter offensive yet, but won't really kick it off until the weather gets near impossible for russian troops.

a reply to: F2d5thCavv2





You might enjoy this first run after action analysis.

I have to caution you though, there are are a few potential coffee spotting moments if you recognize them.

a reply to: ShowTheEvidence

It depends on the state of their forces, how worn their units are.

Down south, they may still be fresh enough to continue attacking. Donbas area sounds gritty at the moment and sounds like they're "hold the line" posture in the Kharkiv Oblast.

Winter ops have many challenges. Ukrainians are probably better equipped to deal with those.

Cheers

a reply to: ShowTheEvidence

The winter in the East has become a bit of a myth.

Well-equipped soldiers, with good tactics, morale, purpose, and equipment, can operate in the cold, rain and snow. The weather may shape the battlefield, concentrate and isolate troops, and will complicate logistics, especially if you are dug in a muddy trench, as seems to be the case with Russian occupiers.

originally posted by: F2d5thCavv2
a reply to: ShowTheEvidence

It depends on the state of their forces, how worn their units are.

Down south, they may still be fresh enough to continue attacking. Donbas area sounds gritty at the moment and sounds like they're "hold the line" posture in the Kharkiv Oblast.

Winter ops have many challenges. Ukrainians are probably better equipped to deal with those.

Cheers

Agreed, but missing some critically important info.

Most importantly, the troops Ukraine has been using for offensive operations are not at all drawn from those holding the lines in fixing operations, they are unique units that are staffed, trained, equipped & supplied completely separate from those 'line holding' forces.

All indications are that these 'offensive' troops have already left Kherson for their nice warm bases far from the war zone.

Also, Ukraine's 'offensive' forces participated in FAR less fighting than they had prepared for in Kherson, most russian forces ran to the river as fast as they could as soon as they realized those 'offensive' forces started to appear in the area. Seriously, I've seen large convoys returning large quantities of unused ammo & supplies bsck to their bases. Some of those 'offensive' forces hadn't even arrived yet by the time the last russian crossed the river.



I don't have any idea how Ukraine plans to fight a winter offensive, or how well it will go for them, but it appears that Ukraine is preparing to show us all how it's done.

originally posted by: paraphi
a reply to: ShowTheEvidence

The winter in the East has become a bit of a myth.

Well-equipped soldiers, with good tactics, morale, purpose, and equipment, can operate in the cold, rain and snow. The weather may shape the battlefield, concentrate and isolate troops, and will complicate logistics, especially if you are dug in a muddy trench, as seems to be the case with Russian occupiers.

With a background in defense industry manufacturing, I agree completely, but am anxiously waiting for Ukrainian forces to finally prove our long held opinions on 'winter fighting' as 'fact'.

a reply to: paraphi

Equipment is what I'm thinking of. It will take a mechanized force to conduct deep operations. That means logistics and maintenance support in enough quantity to resupply and conduct maintenance in sub-freezing weather.

Frozen ground allows for mobility, but ice can dump a tank or truck off a bridge or road into a gulley or worse. Their medical troops will have to deal with a lot of cold weather injuries, trench foot, etc.

It can be done (I've "done winter" during peacetime maneuvers), but an army needs all the pieces in place to keep rolling in the cold.

I expect one consequence will be Ukrainian civilians thrown out of their homes so that Russian troops will have shelter.

Cheers

a reply to: peacewarrior4

what are you talking about??