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Russia Ukraine Update Thread - part 3

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posted on Nov, 14 2022 @ 03:47 PM
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a reply to: Freeborn

I feel about ATS like this sometimes.

I met Lemmy once. Yep!

youtu.be...



posted on Nov, 14 2022 @ 03:47 PM
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a reply to: Silcone Synapse


There was a specific threat there that needed to be eliminated, I doubt Ukraine left anything more than a SF Recon team behind.

This wasn't the first time that Ukraine sent commandos after this specific threat, but I suspect that Ukraine may have been successful this time.




posted on Nov, 14 2022 @ 04:29 PM
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Quite a few tgram russian milbloggers are discussing what appears to be an unconfirmed russian rumor (to me, so far) that putin is being 'forced' by someone or some group to 'unmobilize' everyone who had been a student when mobilized.

I find it hard to believe that anyone tried to 'force' putin to do anything and lived to tell about it, but something to keep an eye out for over the next few weeks.




posted on Nov, 14 2022 @ 08:13 PM
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Well, one of biggest fears hasn't happened yet with the Kherson retreat. I had a sinking feeling that the Russians may have blown the damn as a form of protection against the Ukrainians after they got as much of their stuff across the Dneiper.

I also feared that they would start to replace the regular units from the VDV and the other elite units they moved into Kherson back in May with mobilized men and just throw them to the wolves to try and slow down the Ukrainian advance when the retreat came. Although I do believe they did do this to an extent, at some point, they saw the folly and just pulled them all out. Had they done it, it most likely would have turned into a total rout and put so much more pressure on the Russians trying to get across the river when 10K men try to flee in the face of the Ukrainian advance.

Either way, they still lost a lot of men in that retreat and I am sure the Ukrainians will be weeding out men who swapped uniforms for civvies for the next few months. Not like Operation Gladio kinda of way but just save their asses and hope to be able to find their way back home on their own



posted on Nov, 14 2022 @ 08:58 PM
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originally posted by: GAOTU789
Well, one of biggest fears hasn't happened yet with the Kherson retreat. I had a sinking feeling that the Russians may have blown the damn as a form of protection against the Ukrainians after they got as much of their stuff across the Dneiper.

I also feared that they would start to replace the regular units from the VDV and the other elite units they moved into Kherson back in May with mobilized men and just throw them to the wolves to try and slow down the Ukrainian advance when the retreat came. Although I do believe they did do this to an extent, at some point, they saw the folly and just pulled them all out. Had they done it, it most likely would have turned into a total rout and put so much more pressure on the Russians trying to get across the river when 10K men try to flee in the face of the Ukrainian advance.

Either way, they still lost a lot of men in that retreat and I am sure the Ukrainians will be weeding out men who swapped uniforms for civvies for the next few months. Not like Operation Gladio kinda of way but just save their asses and hope to be able to find their way back home on their own



Agreed.

I was also more worried than most about russia blowing the dam, and think the new russian commander only abandoned the mobiks plan you described when he learned just how few of his vdv, airborne, and naval marine forces were still breathing and equipped.



edit on 14-11-2022 by CombatMosquito because: (no reason given)



posted on Nov, 15 2022 @ 08:40 AM
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14 November Update



* Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations on the Svatove-Kreminna line and clashed with Russian troops near Bilohorivka.

* Russian forces unsuccessfully attempted to regain positions in northeastern Kharkiv Oblast.

* Russian forces intensified offensive operations in Donetsk Oblast and claimed to have gained territory around Bakhmut and southwest of Donetsk City.

* Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian troops launched an unsuccessful raid onto the Kinburn Spit.


More at URL above.

Cheers



posted on Nov, 15 2022 @ 08:50 AM
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originally posted by: GAOTU789
Well, one of biggest fears hasn't happened yet with the Kherson retreat. I had a sinking feeling that the Russians may have blown the damn as a form of protection against the Ukrainians after they got as much of their stuff across the Dneiper.


The Russians are in a peculiar state.

On the one hand - The political angle is that following the referenda (yeah, I know), the city of Kherson and the surrounding area is now Russian territory, so by extension Ukraine has been attacking Russian lands. An attack on Russian territory (we were told) would force a military response that would raze Ukraine to the ground.

On the other hand - The military angle is that Kherson was too difficult to defend.

The political objectives are now out-of-step with the military objectives. Either Putin gave permission for his military to cede Russian territory, or the military did it without telling him, or Putin is confused what he said to whom, and when.

The Russian military is simultaneously going to decisively punish Ukraine for invading (yeah, right) Russian territory, and it's gonna pull as far back as it can to avoid further losses. Is this a paradox?
edit on 15/11/2022 by paraphi because: (no reason given)



posted on Nov, 15 2022 @ 09:41 AM
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a reply to: paraphi
A while back Putin said Donbas was the priority. If he had focused the initial invasion on Donbas instead of spreading his forces too thinly by also going after Kyiv and other territories, he might have been more successful. So the implication back then was he will not give up the Donbas and wanted to take more of it, even though the rhetoric talked about the 4 annexed territories, which was obviously problematic from the day that happened, when Russia didn't even control the entirety of some of those oblasts, like Kherson.

But, Putin has been silent about the Kherson strategic withdrawal, leaving defense minister Shoigu and the general in charge of Ukraine operations (Surovikin) to put on a scripted performance for television explaining the reason for the withdrawal, which for once was not another Russian lie; they could not keep the troops on the west bank of the Dnipro supplied and did it to save soldier's lives. You can hear part of the scripted performance starting at about 4:15 in this video:

Russia Orders Kherson Pullout, Says Futile To Keep Troops On Dnipro Right West Bank
(I hate them calling it right and left instead of west and east since "Right" is actually "left" or west on right-side up maps!)

Who wrote the script? I don't know, but Putin might have approved it, though there are some claiming Putin may no longer be in full control of the military at this point, and he's going to hide in his bunker.

The military command had been criticized for wasting so many soldier's lives on suicide attacks near Bakhmut, so they have to at least pretend to care about the soldiers lives to prevent more scenes like the 2000 troops chanting at the Russian general. From a military prespective it was the right call to save the 20,000 to 30,000 soldiers to fight other battles, who might have been captured or killed.

If those estimates 20-30k are correct, I don't know how they evacuated so many from the West bank of the Dnipro river so fast, since that was days ago and without the bridges, analysts said it would take weeks to evacuate that many on ferries. Or maybe they didn't all get evacuated...I wonder how many are still in Kherson wearing civilian clothes?

edit on 20221115 by Arbitrageur because: clarification



posted on Nov, 15 2022 @ 10:21 AM
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originally posted by: Arbitrageur
A while back Putin said Donbas was the priority.


Russia's priorities are in a state of constant revision. In February, the political objective was that Ukraine would be subdued, and the government replaced by a Russian puppet. Thus, Ukraine would be both "de-Nazified and disarmed". It quickly became apparent that the political objectives were not militarily achievable.

That objectives morphed a bit and Russia was interested in linking with Odessa and the Russian-supporting Transnistria, which is under occupation by Russia. Russia would be happy with half of Ukraine!

Then, when that went wrong, Russia went for the annexation of four regions of Ukraine as the next significant political objective, backed by laughable referenda. This has also been proven to be militarily unachievable, as Russia does not control any region, and has lost Kherson.

My point remains that Russia's political intent is beyond the ability of Russia's military to deliver. At some point, one has to give. If the Donbas is really all Russia wanted, then why the f'ing about, because the Donbas area was already pretty much under Russian control before February.

The estimates of Russian combat losses - killed and invalided - vary. The impartial tally seems to be a consensus of around 50-70K KIA, with a comparable number injured. That's a significant number. Worse are the numbers of civilians killed, which will only be known when the mass graves are investigated off the back of Russia's removal.

Russian belligerence, causing pain and misery for a hundred years. Prove me wrong!



posted on Nov, 15 2022 @ 12:12 PM
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www.bbc.co.uk...

A barrage of Russian missile attacks on cities.

Is this anything other than sheer spite?



posted on Nov, 15 2022 @ 12:37 PM
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www.reuters.com... poland was just "accidentally" hit with two russian missiles/rockets apparently so they are calling an urgent meeting ,i say accidentially as the polish are being pretty tight lipped about it but photos on twitter show what looks like a grain silo destroyed?

twitter.com...

dorzeczy.pl... for those that speak polish
edit on 15-11-2022 by RalagaNarHallas because: (no reason given)



posted on Nov, 15 2022 @ 12:38 PM
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Uh-oh...

At least two dead after Russian missiles land in NATO state Poland on Ukraine border

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posted on Nov, 15 2022 @ 12:41 PM
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a reply to: WeDemBoyz

Uh Oh.....indeed.


edit on 15-11-2022 by Oldcarpy2 because: (no reason given)



posted on Nov, 15 2022 @ 12:57 PM
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apnews.com... ap just confirmed it

KYIV, Ukraine (AP) — A senior U.S. intelligence official says Russian missiles crossed into NATO member Poland, killing two people. Polish government spokesman Piotr Mueller did not immediately confirm the information, but said top leaders were holding an emergency meeting due to a “crisis situation.” Polish media reported that two people died Tuesday afternoon after a projectile struck an area where grain was drying in Przewodów, a Polish village near the border with Ukraine.
i dont think they will invoke article 5 but knowing the poles they are going to be quite mad about this



posted on Nov, 15 2022 @ 01:01 PM
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a reply to: RalagaNarHallas

Agree. I doubt it will lead to the invocation of Article 5, but it does deserve a proportional response. Probably won't be today and it will probably be carried out covertly; but Poland won't let this stand.



posted on Nov, 15 2022 @ 01:11 PM
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So looks like 2 cruise missiles both presumably with the higher end of Russian navgation technology-both miss the supposed target of Lyviv,100km away.
Other missiles have hit Lyviv today.

Was that 2 malfunctioning missiles?
They both hit the same area,which seems odd.

Polish Prime minister is right now in an emergency meeting with his defence people.

Lets hope ths is not the event it has the potential to be.



posted on Nov, 15 2022 @ 01:13 PM
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originally posted by: Silcone Synapse
So looks like 2 cruise missiles both presumably with the higher end of Russian navgation technology-both miss the supposed target of Lyviv,100km away.
Other missiles have hit Lyviv today.

Was that 2 malfunctioning missiles?
They both hit the same area,which seems odd.

Polish Prime minister is right now in an emergency meeting with his defence people.

Lets hope ths is not the event it has the potential to be.


Well Poland has the right to protect itself from Russian aggression spilling onto their land.



posted on Nov, 15 2022 @ 01:15 PM
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a reply to: Silcone Synapse

Lviv is almost in a straight line south from the impact site , how big is the possibility that they entered the wrong coordinates in the targeting system ?


edit on 15-11-2022 by TheGreazel because: (no reason given)



posted on Nov, 15 2022 @ 01:25 PM
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a reply to: TheGreazel
If that is the case,I would hope the Russians have communicated that it was an accident to Poland pretty fast.
But I don't even know if the two countries are on speaking terms lately.



posted on Nov, 15 2022 @ 01:39 PM
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a reply to: Silcone Synapse

I'm not sure you can find two peoples who hate each other more than the Poles and the Russians. And for very good, historical reasons.

I really hope this doesn't escalate things but I've been concerned about this since day one. Russia has some hardware that has some huge CEP's so this has been a possibility as long as they have been targeting Lviv.




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