It looks like you're using an Ad Blocker.

Please white-list or disable AboveTopSecret.com in your ad-blocking tool.

Thank you.

 

Some features of ATS will be disabled while you continue to use an ad-blocker.

 

So What's Next?

page: 5
28
<< 2  3  4    6  7  8 >>

log in

join
share:

posted on Oct, 12 2022 @ 09:50 AM
link   

originally posted by: TheRedneck
We have all been watching the goings-on in Ukraine and Russia with intense interest the last few months. It's been debated to death. But one thing hasn't been debated yet; one question has not been asked.

Let us suppose that we all wake up tomorrow to the wonderful news: Ukraine has won. All disputed territories, including Crimea, are back under Ukrainian control. The Russian troops have fled in retreat to deep inside Russia. Putin has announced that he is cancelling the offensive entirely. Everything we wanted to happen has come to pass. It's over and the good guys won.

What happens next?

In the wake of all this, Europe still has lost the Nord Stream pipelines. The Ukrainian pipelines are all that's left to Russia, and I seriously doubt even a defeated enemy will be quick to somehow resume operations. Besides, all of Russia's assets are frozen, so they can't be paid and they cannot pay for pipeline use. So Europe is still looking at a long, dark, cold winter.

Russia is going to continue to sell LNG and oil to China. The pipelines are there and we have made sure there is no one else they can sell to. So that alliance is going to grow. China is going to gain economic power as they take advantage of Russia's disability.

And, lest anyone forget, if Putin were to resign... a definite possibility since he is showing signs of bad health and any leader who loses militarily will always lose political support... who would replace him? The position of President of Russia will not simply dissolve away into some fairy-tale mist. It will still exist, and someone will fill it. Who?

I found this page: After Putin: 12 people ready to ruin Russia next. First in line, and according to Politico the most likely to replace Vladimir Putin, is Nikolai Patrushev:

Should Putin accept that his position has become untenable, Kremlin watchers see Nikolai Patrushev as his most likely successor. The former head of the FSB spy agency, now secretary of the Security Council of Russia, has the advantage of sharing a worldview with Putin — one that is shot through with hostility toward the West in general, and toward the United States in particular

If anything, Patrushev’s views are more extreme: In a Security Council meeting days before Putin ordered troops into Ukraine in February, Patrushev accused Washington of pursuing a hidden agenda to bring about “the collapse of the Russian Federation.” It’s a familiar trope: Patrushev years ago accused former U.S. Secretary of State Madeleine Albright of saying that Siberia and the Far East should not belong to Russia. This allegation had no known basis in fact, leading to speculation that it originated in a top-secret project where Moscow spies hired mindreaders to tap into the thoughts of Western leaders.

Sounds like he would make Putin look less like Hitler and more like Mother Teresa by comparison.

Mikhail Mishustin is presently the Russian Prime Minister, and the Russian Constitution specifies that the sitting Prime Minister will fill the role of President should it become vacant. So it's likely that he would assume power, but such power is intended to be quite temporary. The Prime Minister does not become President... he simply fulfills the role of President while a new one is chosen. Besides, Mishustin is a tax guy. If he even wanted the position, it is doubtful he would be able to effectively fill it.

So what can we expect from Nikolai Patrushev?

Nikolai Platonovich Patrushev (Russian: Никола́й Плато́нович Па́трушев; born 11 July 1951) is a Russian politician, security officer and intelligence officer who has served as the secretary of the Security Council of Russia since 2008. He previously served as the director of the Federal Security Service (FSB) from 1999 to 2008. Belonging to the siloviki faction of president Vladimir Putin's inner circle, Patrushev is believed to be one of the closest advisors to Putin and a leading figure behind Russia's national security affairs. He is considered as very hawkish towards the West and the US and has promoted various conspiracy theories. Patrushev is seen by observers as one of the likeliest candidates for succeeding Putin.


"Very hawkish towards the West"... doesn't sound like a good team player for the rest of the planet. What about his political views?

In December 2000, on the anniversary of the founding of the Bolshevik secret police, the Cheka, an interview with him was published in a Russian national daily. In defence of the emerging trend of co-opting officers in the security and intelligence apparatus into high government posts, Patrushev noted that his FSB colleagues did not "work for money [...] [they] are, if you will, modern 'neo-nobility'." The term "new nobility" gained currency afterwards, as in the eponymous book The New Nobility.

Ben Noble, Associate Professor of Russian Politics at University College London, describes Patrushev as "the most hawkish hawk, thinking the West has been out to get Russia for years". He was quoted as saying, "The Americans believe that we control [our natural resources] illegally and undeservedly because, in their view, we do not use them as they ought to be used." Patrushev has referenced "Madeleine Albright’s claim 'that neither the Far East nor Siberia belong to Russia.'" According to the New York Times, this remark can be traced back to a psychic employed by the FSB who claimed to have read the thoughts in Albright's mind while in a state of trance.

Patrushev believes in various conspiracy theories and often gives interviews to state-controlled media in Russia. He claimed that the West is seeking to reduce "the world's population in various ways," including creating "an empire of lies, involving the humiliation and destruction of Russia and other objectionable states." Mark Galeotti, an expert in the field of Russian politics and security, said that Patrushev, one of Putin’s closest advisers, is the "most dangerous man in Russia" because of his "paranoid conspiracy-driven mindset."


"The most dangerous man in Russia."

The instigator of the Ukraine conflict.

A man who hates... hates... the West, with the Russian nuclear arsenal at his command. What could go wrong?

Is it possible to lose by "winning"?

TheRedneck


How come America is allowed to be swaggering, belligerent, and borderline delirious but it's Russia whose leaders are dangerous to the world if they let a conspiracy addled tyrant replace a parkinson's addled tyrant?



posted on Oct, 12 2022 @ 10:07 AM
link   
a reply to: TzarChasm

Hella funny and somewhat ironic watching everyone squabble in this thread when one nation above all stood to benefit from consuming Europe's share of Russian energy.

Happens to be the same nation which seated the current US president and is the final bastion of Comminism.

edit on 12-10-2022 by iamthevirus because: (no reason given)



posted on Oct, 12 2022 @ 10:14 AM
link   
a reply to: TheRedneck

The West could and probably will lose by winning. Look at the results of previous regime change operations. Libya comes to mind. And have no doubt about it, regime change is exactly what the Obama Whitehouse under Puppet Biden wants. And end to Putin.



posted on Oct, 12 2022 @ 10:21 AM
link   

originally posted by: vNex92
a reply to: TritonTaranis

Furthermore Ukrainian President isn't even Ukrainian.
But lets not go there.


Have a look at your own Prime Minister before throwing that around
Pots and Kettles vNex

edit on 12-10-2022 by ufoorbhunter because: (no reason given)



posted on Oct, 12 2022 @ 10:25 AM
link   
a reply to: TheRedneck


Very good question. What happens going forward?

Military Perspective: Every military analyst on the planet is watching the war. First conclusion – neither side was ready for a boots-on-the-ground conflict. The result will be a massive build up and reorganization of military assets in the important countries. China has been doing this for years and is way ahead of the game. The United States will follow suit. I know the Marine Corps is already proposing serious restructuring.

As for Russia, their problem is time. They don't have it. Restructuring their ground forces considering all the assets required in manufacturing, distribution and training takes years, maybe even a decade. That's why they're in a protracted war now with no end in sight. That's not to declare a failure for either side – yet.

Financial Perspective: Russia started liquidating their American bond holdings in 2018. Currently, they own just about zero in American bonds. China and Japan are the top two American bond holders with China increasing its positions at every bond auction. Russia, on the other hand, initiated their own bond market. Their recent auction in September sold over 1bn in sovereign debt at a 10%+ yield. Sanctions are conveniently lifted when Wall Street wants to get involved. And who do you think bought a big chunk of Russian sovereign debt? United States investors. If Russia needs more cash, they can go to their bond market. A very smart move on their part to initiate their own bond market.

Russia and China are also the only two major countries on the planet whose currency is backed by gold and precious metals. That's why bond investors have little fear of investing in Russian bonds. They're backed by gold, unlike Venezuela which defaulted big time and screwed all the bond holders. When Russia defaulted earlier this year, they eventually paid in rubles. That was the plan. And investors keep buying. The notion that Russia can't afford to rebuild is out of date. But their enemy is time.

The "debt" that everyone freaks out about is actually what the U.S. government owes to bond holders. When Russia bailed out of American bonds, there was zero problem with liquidity. The U.S. paid every dime they were owed. Liquidity is everything when it comes to debt - and the U.S. still has it.

About the dollar: The terms “strong” and “weak” are totally misunderstood (several posters hear have commented on the “weak” dollar). The dollar has been the major reserve currency since WWII due to liquidity of American markets. Approximately 95% of all trade is denominated in dollars. When the dollar is “strong”, prices of goods and services from the United States increase. When the dollar is “weak”, the price of American goods and services decreases. In other words, a weak dollar (not a crashing dollar) is a benefit to American trade. The Russian ruble, by contrast, is the strongest currency on the planet today. That's not a benefit for trade, but does support investment in the country. The recent pact with the Saudis and OPEC also strengthens the Russian position. Inflation and commodity prices help Russia, but hurt everyone else. That's also a plan.

Putin and Politics: Putin is going nowhere. The worst thing Russia could do is attempt a coup or replace him. It would trigger a sense of instability that would have far reaching consequences.

Breaking up Russia: Never happen because the quasi-independent countries are reliant on Russia for financial support i.e. trade, jobs, infrastructure development. Regardless what they say to the media, you're not going to see much support for total and complete separation from Russia. No one cares about history. They care about money and security.

Bottom line is there's no doomsday scenario here. The final chapter hasn't been written, but given the above descriptions, I would say don't count on Ukrainians and Americans opening military bases on Russian soil any time soon.



posted on Oct, 12 2022 @ 10:28 AM
link   
a reply to: vNex92


Furthermore Ukrainian President isn't even Ukrainian.
But lets not go there.


No please, let's do go there.
What is he then?



posted on Oct, 12 2022 @ 11:03 AM
link   
a reply to: Cutepants




They should have gotten rid of him years ago. Having the same guy in charge for decades is risky, as we have seen.


It's not like I keep up with the exact numbers... but don't those who
run against him (or threaten to become his sensible replacement)
just before the election process, usually end up in pretty bad shape?

# 1633


edit on 12-10-2022 by TheWhiteKnight because: (no reason given)



posted on Oct, 12 2022 @ 11:04 AM
link   

originally posted by: Freeborn
a reply to: vNex92


Furthermore Ukrainian President isn't even Ukrainian.
But lets not go there.


No please, let's do go there.
What is he then?


He's insinuating the typical antisemitic rhetoric. Zelensky is a Jew. But he's also Ukrainian. Stupid comment by vNex921. Everyone sees right through it.



posted on Oct, 12 2022 @ 11:08 AM
link   

originally posted by: Phantom423

originally posted by: Freeborn
a reply to: vNex92


Furthermore Ukrainian President isn't even Ukrainian.
But lets not go there.


No please, let's do go there.
What is he then?


He's insinuating the typical antisemitic rhetoric. Zelensky is a Jew. But he's also Ukrainian. Stupid comment by vNex921. Everyone sees right through it.



That’s what they’re insinuating

The Khazerian conspiracy BS was also dropped by the same member

We’re getting pretty close to the disgusting core values of much of the pro Russia voices on this board



posted on Oct, 12 2022 @ 11:22 AM
link   

originally posted by: ufoorbhunter

originally posted by: vNex92
a reply to: TritonTaranis

Furthermore Ukrainian President isn't even Ukrainian.
But lets not go there.


Have a look at your own Prime Minister before throwing that around
Pots and Kettles vNex


Do we even know who his PM or president is ?

I think he’s sitting in some 3rd world Internet cafe sponsored by a local Chinese mining company tbh



posted on Oct, 12 2022 @ 11:23 AM
link   

originally posted by: TritonTaranis

originally posted by: Phantom423

originally posted by: Freeborn
a reply to: vNex92


Furthermore Ukrainian President isn't even Ukrainian.
But lets not go there.


No please, let's do go there.
What is he then?


He's insinuating the typical antisemitic rhetoric. Zelensky is a Jew. But he's also Ukrainian. Stupid comment by vNex921. Everyone sees right through it.



That’s what they’re insinuating

The Khazerian conspiracy BS was also dropped by the same member

We’re getting pretty close to the disgusting core values of much of the pro Russia voices on this board



I'm pro russian and I don't have any disgusting core values.



posted on Oct, 12 2022 @ 11:42 AM
link   
a reply to: TritonTaranis


Step 1 - Russians defeat in Ukraine

Step 2 - Russias Color revolution

Step 3 - Russias territorial dismantling

So, you expect the West to invade and overthrow Russia then?

I have to ask this: it's not OK for Russia to invade and overthrow another country, but it is a good thing when we invade and overthrow Russia?

TheRedneck



posted on Oct, 12 2022 @ 11:45 AM
link   
a reply to: Riouz5

It sounds to me like the West has gone to war without any concept of what will happen... win or lose.

Putin may have done so, but again, this entire thread is based on what if Putin loses completely. So in this context, that is a given.

TheRedneck



posted on Oct, 12 2022 @ 11:48 AM
link   
a reply to: Phantom423


He's insinuating the typical antisemitic rhetoric.


Yeah I know....I was sort of hoping he'd have the balls and strength of his convictions to come out and openly say it rather than just imply.
I'm not surprised that he hasn't.

This is the same guy who when running out of excuses to justify Putin's invasion he trots out the 'its to rid Ukraine of Nazi's' excuse.

Pitiful.



posted on Oct, 12 2022 @ 11:49 AM
link   
a reply to: TheWhiteKnight

Yeah. But I was replying to OP who asked if it would be good or bad to replace Putin with another person.



posted on Oct, 12 2022 @ 11:52 AM
link   

originally posted by: Cutepants
a reply to: TheWhiteKnight

Yeah. But I was replying to OP who asked if it would be good or bad to replace Putin with another person.


It wouldn't make any difference. The West has had it in for a long time and that's what the Russian people think and they are right.



posted on Oct, 12 2022 @ 11:53 AM
link   
a reply to: TritonTaranis


There is a lot wrong with your assessments

I didn't mention one single word in that post about Russia's military prowess or lack thereof. You seem to be stuck in "kill Russia" mode. ^That is NOT what I am discussing. I am discussing what we do if (or when it makes you feel better), we (Ukraine, since they are our proxy) win. What happens then?

Do you really think the Russian people will be just fine and dandy with having their country invaded, their culture erased, and their history removed? Surely you don't think the West can do that and expect to be greeted with cheering crowds going "Thank you for destroying our country!"

Or do you really believe that? That is the only assessment I made, that the Russian people would be quite upset if we did that.

TheRedneck



posted on Oct, 12 2022 @ 11:54 AM
link   
They love to hate on America but then they turn around and scream:

AMERICUH PLZ POLICE THE WORLD...


fight your own fights, we already had to enter 2 world wars because of yall then yall got upset we became the Super Power...


I just dont feel obligated nor is it in our best interest to do so.


Figure it out and I want a refund.



posted on Oct, 12 2022 @ 11:55 AM
link   
A thought provoking thread OP.

I don't have any answers but some interesting analysis here.

It's not a long read and yes, it's the BBC, but anyway:


BBC News - What is Vladimir Putin thinking and planning?
www.bbc.co.uk...



posted on Oct, 12 2022 @ 11:56 AM
link   
a reply to: Cutepants


They just don't seem insane to me, I disagree.

OK, that's fine. I agree to disagree on how the guy who pushed for invasion is not really the bad guy here.


Wouldn't be the first time a king gets fooled by his advisor.

It may be the first time those oppressed by the fooled king put the one who fooled him into power instead.

TheRedneck




top topics



 
28
<< 2  3  4    6  7  8 >>

log in

join