So What's Next?

We have all been watching the goings-on in Ukraine and Russia with intense interest the last few months. It's been debated to death. But one thing hasn't been debated yet; one question has not been asked.

Let us suppose that we all wake up tomorrow to the wonderful news: Ukraine has won. All disputed territories, including Crimea, are back under Ukrainian control. The Russian troops have fled in retreat to deep inside Russia. Putin has announced that he is cancelling the offensive entirely. Everything we wanted to happen has come to pass. It's over and the good guys won.

What happens next?

In the wake of all this, Europe still has lost the Nord Stream pipelines. The Ukrainian pipelines are all that's left to Russia, and I seriously doubt even a defeated enemy will be quick to somehow resume operations. Besides, all of Russia's assets are frozen, so they can't be paid and they cannot pay for pipeline use. So Europe is still looking at a long, dark, cold winter.

Russia is going to continue to sell LNG and oil to China. The pipelines are there and we have made sure there is no one else they can sell to. So that alliance is going to grow. China is going to gain economic power as they take advantage of Russia's disability.

And, lest anyone forget, if Putin were to resign... a definite possibility since he is showing signs of bad health and any leader who loses militarily will always lose political support... who would replace him? The position of President of Russia will not simply dissolve away into some fairy-tale mist. It will still exist, and someone will fill it. Who?

I found this page: After Putin: 12 people ready to ruin Russia next. First in line, and according to Politico the most likely to replace Vladimir Putin, is Nikolai Patrushev:

Should Putin accept that his position has become untenable, Kremlin watchers see Nikolai Patrushev as his most likely successor. The former head of the FSB spy agency, now secretary of the Security Council of Russia, has the advantage of sharing a worldview with Putin — one that is shot through with hostility toward the West in general, and toward the United States in particular

If anything, Patrushev’s views are more extreme: In a Security Council meeting days before Putin ordered troops into Ukraine in February, Patrushev accused Washington of pursuing a hidden agenda to bring about “the collapse of the Russian Federation.” It’s a familiar trope: Patrushev years ago accused former U.S. Secretary of State Madeleine Albright of saying that Siberia and the Far East should not belong to Russia. This allegation had no known basis in fact, leading to speculation that it originated in a top-secret project where Moscow spies hired mindreaders to tap into the thoughts of Western leaders.

Sounds like he would make Putin look less like Hitler and more like Mother Teresa by comparison.

Mikhail Mishustin is presently the Russian Prime Minister, and the Russian Constitution specifies that the sitting Prime Minister will fill the role of President should it become vacant. So it's likely that he would assume power, but such power is intended to be quite temporary. The Prime Minister does not become President... he simply fulfills the role of President while a new one is chosen. Besides, Mishustin is a tax guy. If he even wanted the position, it is doubtful he would be able to effectively fill it.

So what can we expect from Nikolai Patrushev?

Nikolai Platonovich Patrushev (Russian: Никола́й Плато́нович Па́трушев; born 11 July 1951) is a Russian politician, security officer and intelligence officer who has served as the secretary of the Security Council of Russia since 2008. He previously served as the director of the Federal Security Service (FSB) from 1999 to 2008. Belonging to the siloviki faction of president Vladimir Putin's inner circle, Patrushev is believed to be one of the closest advisors to Putin and a leading figure behind Russia's national security affairs. He is considered as very hawkish towards the West and the US and has promoted various conspiracy theories. Patrushev is seen by observers as one of the likeliest candidates for succeeding Putin.

"Very hawkish towards the West"... doesn't sound like a good team player for the rest of the planet. What about his political views?

In December 2000, on the anniversary of the founding of the Bolshevik secret police, the Cheka, an interview with him was published in a Russian national daily. In defence of the emerging trend of co-opting officers in the security and intelligence apparatus into high government posts, Patrushev noted that his FSB colleagues did not "work for money [...] [they] are, if you will, modern 'neo-nobility'." The term "new nobility" gained currency afterwards, as in the eponymous book The New Nobility.

Ben Noble, Associate Professor of Russian Politics at University College London, describes Patrushev as "the most hawkish hawk, thinking the West has been out to get Russia for years". He was quoted as saying, "The Americans believe that we control [our natural resources] illegally and undeservedly because, in their view, we do not use them as they ought to be used." Patrushev has referenced "Madeleine Albright’s claim 'that neither the Far East nor Siberia belong to Russia.'" According to the New York Times, this remark can be traced back to a psychic employed by the FSB who claimed to have read the thoughts in Albright's mind while in a state of trance.

Patrushev believes in various conspiracy theories and often gives interviews to state-controlled media in Russia. He claimed that the West is seeking to reduce "the world's population in various ways," including creating "an empire of lies, involving the humiliation and destruction of Russia and other objectionable states." Mark Galeotti, an expert in the field of Russian politics and security, said that Patrushev, one of Putin’s closest advisers, is the "most dangerous man in Russia" because of his "paranoid conspiracy-driven mindset."

"The most dangerous man in Russia."

The instigator of the Ukraine conflict.

A man who hates... hates... the West, with the Russian nuclear arsenal at his command. What could go wrong?

Is it possible to lose by "winning"?

TheRedneck

Russia will solidify the annexed regions with there Regular Army , which hasnt really been involved yet, mainly offshoot branches so far.

They will also Secure Odessa and Kharkiv.

Things about to get Real very fast and Kiev will wish that it negotiated months ago...

Stay Safe

Riouz

If anything, Patrushev’s views are more extreme: In a Security Council meeting days before Putin ordered troops into Ukraine in February, Patrushev accused Washington of pursuing a hidden agenda to bring about “the collapse of the Russian Federation.”

How is that more extreme? Putin has the same mindset. Kadyrov or Prigozhin would be worse imo, not that they're realistic candidates. But Patrushev would just be more of the same.

a reply to: Riouz5

What do you mean by regular army and offshoot branches.? They've been using their professional troops, now they're using conscripts. But those are both regular army imo. Then there's mercenaries.

a reply to: Riouz5

I asked a hypothetical. Assuming everything happens the way TPTB want, and Putin is gone, the conflict is over, even Crimea is resolved to Ukraine's satisfaction... assuming all that, then what?

Until you make that assumption, you aren't addressing the question. We have tons of threads on the present state of the conflict. I don't care to participate in that kind of discussion. It leads nowhere. Believe me, I found that out first hand.

TheRedneck

In part, the West has grown weak. It was bound to invite aggression. But concurrent with this has been decades of foreign policy blunders. Some so stupid, they almost have to be intentional.

Regardless, we are all on the same ride now.

a reply to: Cutepants

Putin has the same mindset.

So what good does it do to get rid of Putin?

Do we need to just bomb Moscow next? Is that what you're saying?

TheRedneck

a reply to: TheRedneck

Well it's like when Stalin died, they were able to admit he made mistakes, they could reverse some of the decisions he made. It breaks the spell, the cult of personality. So the main benefit of "getting rid" of Putin, however that happens, would be that it's easier for the next guy to deescalate. Because even if they have the same world view doesn't mean they are the same person.

They should have gotten rid of him years ago. Having the same guy in charge for decades is risky, as we have seen.

More and more advanced weapons for Ukraine is next


Let’s dispelled the pure lies Russia hasn’t used its regular army yet…. because they’re mostly dead & wounded hence the desperate conscription of drunks

Russia has nothing to offer militarily other than terror attacks and nuke threats

Those nuke threat are more than likely going to increase the further Ukraine pushes into the last remaining increasingly smaller parts of occupied Ukraine

Ukraine is about to receive ATACMS officially and lots of new advanced air defence systems including winter gear

Russia is the biggest and best 3rd world army the world, thank god they kept all this junk to sacrifice to the blood gods

a reply to: TheRedneck

I have tied to answer your hypothetical question ,unfortunately the delete key keeps getting pressed...

So if what you asked happens,there is no Next.MAD would happen..

Stay Safe

Riouz

a reply to: Cutepants

That assumes the next guy wants to de-escalate. Everything I read about Patrushev says he is the last person to expect to de-escalate anything. Do you know something about him I don't?

TheRedneck

a reply to: TritonTaranis
What targets did he specifically threaten with nukes? I hope he did not mention any American air bases, that would certainly be crazyy.

originally posted by: TritonTaranis
More and more advanced weapons for Ukraine is next


Let’s dispelled the pure lies Russia hasn’t used its regular army yet…. because they’re mostly dead & wounded hence the desperate conscription of drunks

Russia has nothing to offer militarily other than terror attacks and nuke threats

Those nuke threat are more than likely going to increase the further Ukraine pushes into the last remaining increasingly smaller parts of occupied Ukraine

Ukraine is about to receive ATACMS officially and lots of new advanced air defence systems including winter gear

Russia is the biggest and best 3rd world army the world, thank god they kept all this junk to sacrifice to the blood gods

Did you even bother to read the OP.

originally posted by: TheRedneck
a reply to: Cutepants

Putin has the same mindset.

So what good does it do to get rid of Putin?

Do we need to just bomb Moscow next? Is that what you're saying?

TheRedneck

No you don’t bomb Moscow, no need only works in Putins favour anyway, that’s the tard way Russia uses like Adolf

It’s actually insane and laughable that Putin has put his name to the terror bombings of Kiev which is 100% a war crime, and absolutely nothing of value was hit, it’s pure Nazi terror bombing showing how frustrated and emotionally compromised this stupid Russias leadership actually is, it seems Putin was just playing to the radicals and emotionally compromised within his power structure

All that needs to happen is you just beat Russia out of Ukraine and keep modernising Ukraines 1 million strong armed forces

The house will crumble internally after that defeat, they’ll start turning on each other and grabbing the scraps of the table

And then Russia becomes extremely fragile and ripe for colour revolutions

But this time the right thing needs to be done

Moscow must be decapitated from all its historical conquests, Russia broken apart, since Russia is built mostly on adjacent colonialism that’s how it’ll be broken down

Russia like China is well seated in anti west propaganda online regarding imperialism & colonialism yet those are the only two countries still left in the the world who are actively still practising it, and wielding it against the western world

So Russias breakup is 110% set in stone at this point, naughty mischievous little Russia tut tut

a reply to: TritonTaranis

Russia has nothing to offer militarily other than terror attacks and nuke threats

Russia is the biggest and best 3rd world army the world

That would seem to be two completely contradictory statements... not that i have come to expect less.

So you're saying that by removing one man, and replacing him with someone just as bad (if not worse; I am giving Cutepants the benefit of the doubt), suddenly the biggest and best 3rd world military on the planet is nothing to worry about? It just what? Disappears? Poof?

How do you come to that conclusion?

TheRedneck

a reply to: TritonTaranis

Its not Pure lies , around 15 to 20% of Russian Regular Army was used in the first 3 months then mostly withdrew..

Sparatists,loyal allied forces ,Wagner group, Chechen, Cossacks..want me to contine???

Have decimated Ukrainians Army Since..

That all Changed with the Annexed Regions ,now in the coming weeks, the west will see the Real Russian Force..

It is what it is..

Stay Safe

Riouz

a reply to: Riouz5

So if what you asked happens,there is no Next.MAD would happen..

That's what worries me.

Is MAD worth it?

TheRedneck

originally posted by: TheRedneck
a reply to: Riouz5

So if what you asked happens,there is no Next.MAD would happen..

That's what worries me.

Is MAD worth it?

TheRedneck

Absolutely and unequivocally Not

Stay Safe

Riouz

originally posted by: TheRedneck
a reply to: TritonTaranis

Russia has nothing to offer militarily other than terror attacks and nuke threats

Russia is the biggest and best 3rd world army the world

That would seem to be two completely contradictory statements... not that i have come to expect less.

So you're saying that by removing one man, and replacing him with someone just as bad (if not worse; I am giving Cutepants the benefit of the doubt), suddenly the biggest and best 3rd world military on the planet is nothing to worry about? It just what? Disappears? Poof?

How do you come to that conclusion?

TheRedneck

Russia has had 22 years of locking up and murdering its political opposition

Has that escaped you?

There are plenty of voices in Russia very similar to those in Ukraine who want friendly relations with the West and integration into the rules based international order and not the old dying soviet imperialism mindsets like Putin who caused this confrontation

a reply to: TheRedneck

I just assume he's a reasonably sane man who understands what is happening around him, whether he hates the USA or not. But the main reason Putin can't end this war is that he'd look so bad for loosing it. So he has to keep fighting it hoping he can win eventually.

See, I'm not saying Patrushev is different from Putin. It would be the same if Patrushev was president now and Putin was the successor. Then I'd think Putin will deescalate if Patrushev goes away.

Patrushev has less to loose and more to win than Putin.