Prospects for arming the Ukrainian army by the West

Hello ATS!

Today my thread will be purely analytical and military, with some analysis of the use of Western weapons in the theater of operations in Ukraine. So get ready - the text will be long and analytical. Who does not want to think can not read this long text.

On June 15, 2022, a regular meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group took place in Brussels at NATO Headquarters. It was attended by defense ministers from more than 50 countries providing military assistance to Ukraine, including from all 30 NATO countries.

Let me remind you that shortly before the meeting in Brussels, on June 13, adviser to the President of Ukraine Mykhailo Podolyak tweeted:

“To put it bluntly, to end the war we need parity in heavy weapons: 1,000 155mm howitzers; 300 MLRS; 500 tanks; 2000 armored vehicles; 1000 drones. On June 15, Brussels will host a meeting of the Contact Group of Defense Ministers. We are waiting for a decision."

Based on the data of the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), experts assessed the reality of the execution of this Ukrainian “order”. It turned out that the US Armed Forces, in particular, have at their disposal only about 900 towed howitzers M777 caliber 155 mm (already without 108 supplied APU) and 635 MLRS type M142 HIMARS and M270 MLRS. This means that Ukraine needs to give all its M777 howitzers and almost half of the MLRS. It is unlikely that the United States will agree to this.

We will completely fulfill the request for tanks. The US military has about 2,645 Abrams tanks in service, and about 3,450 tanks in storage. But here, of course, there are difficulties with the training of Ukrainian personnel. The crew of the Abrams tank consists of 4 people, respectively, it is necessary to train at least 2000 people, and there are also maintenance units. In general, this is not an easy task from the point of view of the organization, which requires considerable effort and time.

Of course, Podolyak's figures are somewhat overestimated, but they are taken for the future, taking into account potential losses. And the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation set a high pace for the disposal of heavy weapons of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. As of 11 a.m. June 17, 2022, the RF Armed Forces have destroyed a total of 205 aircraft, 131 helicopters, 1233 UAVs, 342 air defense systems, 3587 tanks and armored vehicles, 539 MLRS, 2013 guns and mortars, 3658 units of special equipment.

I'll digress. As of June 17, 74 more combat aircraft have already been destroyed in Ukraine than Ukraine had before the start of the conflict. It is clear that Ukraine confiscated a number of aircraft from Azerbaijan, Croatia, the Czech Republic and other countries that were at that moment in its territory for illegal repairs. Plus, Soviet-made aircraft are very quietly supplied by Eastern European countries. But their level and technical condition allow them to make an average of one sortie. Most of them are destroyed by Russian air defense even before approaching the combat mission, some of them perform this task, but are guaranteed to be shot down the next day.

Most aircraft for combat missions take off from the airfields of Romania (NATO countries). A few days ago, two Russian frigates armed with Kalibr missiles entered the exclusive economic maritime zone of Romania. The hint is more than understandable, and the planes stopped taking off from the territory of Romania. However, I'll get back to the topic.

By the way, on June 15, the head of the Pentagon, Lloyd Austin, and the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff of the US Armed Forces, Mark Milley, held a fairly informative press conference for journalists, where they revealed in detail the quantitative and qualitative parameters of military assistance to Ukraine.

Mark Milley explained to reporters that the Pentagon is guided by those requests for the supply of weapons that the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense sends:

“They requested 10 artillery battalions; 12 divisions of artillery were delivered. Again, I would say 97,000 anti-tank systems. That's more anti-tank systems than there are tanks in the world.

They asked for 200 tanks and received 237 tanks. They asked for 100 infantry fighting vehicles and got over 300. We delivered roughly 1,600 or so air defense systems and about 60,000 anti-aircraft shells. It's... when I say "we", I mean the international community."

Thus, Ukrainian applications are even overfulfilled. Ukraine has also received more than 700 Switchblade tactical unmanned aerial vehicles, 20 Mi-17 helicopters, thousands of small arms and hundreds of thousands of small arms ammunition.

At a press conference, data were given on how many Ukrainian servicemen were trained in the use of Western weapons: 420 people to work with the M777 howitzer, 300 people - with the M109 self-propelled gun, 129 people - with the M113 armored personnel carrier, 100 people - with unmanned aerial vehicles, 60 people June 15 completed training on the M142 HIMARS.

Continued below...

I will digress to the review and effectiveness of the M777 howitzers, or, as they are called in Russia, "three axes". First, they are towed. In modern counter-artillery combat, when a retaliatory strike after the application of the system sometimes decides not even minutes, but seconds, these towed howitzers are very vulnerable. Every day there are reports from the General Staff of Russia about the annihilation of 1 - 2, and sometimes 3 platoons of M777. Moreover, it is enough to destroy the tractors, and the howitzers turn into a simple motionless target.

In addition, the M777 is delivered to Ukraine without digital fire control systems, which makes them an average weapon of the second world war. Well, "cherry on the cake", according to Russian military analysts, M777 barrels after 100 shots lose their effectiveness and accuracy by 35-50%. And the deliveries themselves M777 come to Ukraine are no longer new. That is, howitzers of the M777 type with a caliber of 155 mm are capable of conducting only non-selective shooting at areas. It is in this capacity that they are used by the Armed Forces of Ukraine for indiscriminate shelling of Donetsk and other peaceful cities of Novorossia.

Yes, precision-guided munitions can be used in them, but they are too expensive, one might say in single copies, and they are not supplied to Ukraine for quite logical reasons.

The supply of multiple launch rocket systems deserves special attention due to their high combat power and long range. Four M142 HIMARS launchers from the United States and three M270 MLRS launchers from Britain will soon be delivered to Ukraine. Germany will hand over three M270 MLRS launchers in August. Total: 10 launchers.

As General Mark Milley said, "This is the starter kit." He also named the maximum range of destruction of the M142 HIMARS - 85 kilometers. It is obvious that the volume of supplies of MLRS will be directly related to the number of trained Ukrainian specialists. According to Milley, the US "will transfer HIMARS systems, ammunition and trained crews for operational use for the defense of Ukraine by the end of June."

According to these MLRS. Theoretically, they can be used for attacks on the territory of Russia. The US stated that they strictly prohibited the use of these weapons on the territory of Russia, but the initial National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine immediately stated that this could happen "by mistake." Russia immediately stated that in this case, Russian precision-guided missiles would strike "decision-making centers that may be located outside of Ukraine."

Deliveries of cannon artillery will also be continued. The United States will hand over 18 more 155mm M777 towed howitzers and 36,000 shells for them. In total, according to the results of the meeting in Brussels, the donor countries are ready to provide Ukraine with about 100 towed and self-propelled howitzers in the near future. Thus, the total number of cannon artillery transferred by the West will reach 300-400 units.

An important point. According to the results of the current meeting of the Contact Group for the Defense of Ukraine, the volume of deliveries of Western weapons is significantly, several times, less than the volumes that were agreed upon at previous similar events.

It seems that the United States and other Western countries have already chosen their surplus weapons, and further supply of Ukraine can be carried out only through their partial disarmament. And this is quite a painful question.

Yes, and the Kyiv regime gives initiative after initiative. While in Washington, the head of the faction of the Ukrainian ruling Servant of the People party, David Arakhamia, said that Ukraine had mobilized one million people into the armed forces and had the opportunity to mobilize another two million. Potentially, the number of the Armed Forces of Ukraine can reach three million people.

However, there is nothing to arm them with yet. I won't say anything about training. It takes more than one year to train a modern specialist soldier and motivate him enough. In Russia, this work has been built very clearly since the times of the USSR. Each man underwent military service during which he received a military specialty. For example me. I will no longer be called up due to age. But at one time I completed a three-year training at the University at the military department, then at military training camps, and received the specialty "platoon commander of radiation, chemical and bacteriological protection." If now I express a desire to again conclude a contract with the Russian Armed Forces, then it will take me less than a month to renew my knowledge and skills, and I will be able to command a minimum of BRDM, and a maximum of RCM (radiation chemical machine). This is an armored monster with a lead capsule for the crew, which goes to the center of a nuclear explosion or chemical attack and shoots flags with levels of radiation or chemical contamination from an external suspension.

But even with all this, the Ukrainian army still needs to be armed. And Arakhamia put this question before the USA and the West as a whole. The essence of the information message of the Kyiv regime is clear: the readiness to conduct hostilities within the framework of the Western strategy of “war to the last Ukrainian”, and then “to the last Pole” is once again confirmed. train staff.

Continued below...

Of course, the solution of such a large-scale task for the most part will fall on the US military-industrial complex, because. Washington's allies are heavily armed with American weapons. If we consider this issue from a purely economic point of view, then receiving a defense order to equip the armed forces of three million people is a huge success and a lot of money. The same US Armed Forces have about 1.4 million people.

From an economic point of view, restarting the military-industrial complex could help the United States weather the global economic crisis and potentially even emerge from it with a plus. But at the same time, these costs have a negative cost. That is, this product does not produce anything and does not return to the economy, but it also requires huge costs for maintenance and maintenance. And this is an additional tax on ordinary citizens. For European citizens, this is suicidal.

However, if you look at the problem from the other side, then everything looks even worse for the West. After all, Russia will not sit idly by and will be forced to mobilize in order to oppose the Ukrainian three million people with a group of at least one and a half million people.

And no matter how much the West would like, sooner or later this Russian group of one and a half million people, equipped with the most modern weapons, having combat experience, the victorious army, will reach the borders of Moldova, Romania, Slovakia, Hungary and Poland.

And as Zelensky's speech writer Arestovich recently said, "in the event that Ukraine is conquered by Russia, the 1.5 millionth army of Russia, plus the 500,000th of Ukraine, will come to the borders of Europe," which has joined its composition. Moreover, these armies will be well trained, motivated and armed with the most advanced weapons.

So what is the West to do then?

It may be this or a similar situation that former British Chief of Defense General David Richards had in mind when he criticized the West for the lack of a coherent strategy on Ukraine, describing the existing approach as “let's see how it turns out”.

David Richards believes that “there is little understanding in London, Washington or anywhere” about how the current conflict in Ukraine should develop or how the West sees the future Russia, “especially on the vital issue of long-term relations with China.”

Thus, the position of the United States and Britain, as the main moderators of the Ukrainian crisis, in the style of "let's see how it turns out" has its own time frame and resource limit in the form of arms supplies to Ukraine.

The situation for Washington and London is coming to a crossroads: either to allocate weapons in small doses so as not to disarm heavily, or to restart the military-industrial complex for massive supply of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and get a guaranteed multiple build-up of Russian military potential in Ukraine with unpredictable consequences for the future. We will see the answer in terms of the volume of deliveries of Western weapons to Ukrainian territory.

Ufff!

Thank you.

a reply to: RussianTroll

If Putin's forces are still in the field and failed to accomplish their objectives before winter sets in, which I'm inclined to believe will still be the case, given Russia's piss poor performance thus far where her invasion of her peaceful neighbor is concerned, most of them will die in the snow just like the Nazis did in the last century.

a reply to: RussianTroll

Do you have any information about the alleged shelling of Lesnaya prison where Azov and foreign fighters are said to be held?

11:47 in this video.

a reply to: Kester

Hello. I don't have such information. The only thing I know is that when the prisoners from Azovstal were taken out, there were too many of them. Therefore, a general regime colony was allocated for their placement in the village of Yelenovka, Volnovakhsky district of the DPR (south of Donetsk). On the same evening, the Armed Forces of Ukraine launched an artillery-rocket attack on the colony. All shells were shot down. Subsequently, this colony was visited by representatives of various humanitarian international organizations and even representatives of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

Great post RT seriously.

I can't stand how much America has sent to Ukraine period and doing so without oversight and accounting it seems. It makes no sense and is nothing but a money grab. As I mentioned before Ive never seen so many American politicians go into an active and hot war zone within 30 days of an invasion. Not only top-level people but, lower-level ones as well other NATO countries are doing as well.

But generally, it fits my theory that no doubt some of these arms will be sold on the black market once it hits Ukraine. Especially the smaller arms, I would expect what Ukraine can't sell or use immediately will be mothballed and used or sold eventually.

It's was never about defending Ukraine it was we can make bank by sending them huge military packages and they send us kickbacks

a reply to: putnam6

Hello. Not only the Russian government, but ordinary people always think about the situation in Ukraine with the hope of Western sanity. After all, the Russians do not attack the West with aggression, it is NATO that has come close to our borders, and every Russian sees this as a threat to his families and the state.
Unfortunately, the West is only raising the stakes. The day before yesterday, Lithuania announced a complete transport blockade of Kaliningrad. Naturally, this will have consequences. After all, in this way Lithuania violated the conditions of its accession to the EU and the border agreement with Russia. The Russian deputies of the Duma immediately came up with the initiative to break the treaty with Lithuania and annul Stalin's Decree on the transfer of half of its current territory to Lithuania from Belarus. That is, another possible conflict with NATO, and this is not the fault of Russia.
In general, the further, the more unpredictable.

originally posted by: RussianTroll
a reply to: putnam6

Hello. Not only the Russian government, but ordinary people always think about the situation in Ukraine with the hope of Western sanity. After all, the Russians do not attack the West with aggression, it is NATO that has come close to our borders, and every Russian sees this as a threat to his families and the state.
Unfortunately, the West is only raising the stakes. The day before yesterday, Lithuania announced a complete transport blockade of Kaliningrad. Naturally, this will have consequences. After all, in this way Lithuania violated the conditions of its accession to the EU and the border agreement with Russia. The Russian deputies of the Duma immediately came up with the initiative to break the treaty with Lithuania and annul Stalin's Decree on the transfer of half of its current territory to Lithuania from Belarus. That is, another possible conflict with NATO, and this is not the fault of Russia.
In general, the further, the more unpredictable.

Yes exactly, this is my concern. It's why though Im against the invasion and continued occupation, I am also completely aware the war would be less deadly and shorter without all of the western military aid being sent, as well as it wouldn't spark a wider conflict.

The arsenals sent to Ukraine are up for grabs. Unstable, corrupt, and or at war is not a good atmosphere to send so many weapons. This is what happened in many ComBloc countries, South America, and Africa.

A government being corrupt can just sell the guns to the highest bidder. Doesn't have to be the whole government, either. A few people in key places with loose enough morals and in bad enough need of money, and guns get sold.

All it takes is the contacts and we know Joe and Hunter have garnered plenty of contacts in Ukraine since 2014


the longer this goes on the more likely it is to happen

a reply to: RussianTroll

The weather in Ukraine come December is not a fantasy RT but a reality especially so for any invasion force.

And a reality your troops are not prepared for, or can realistically hope to be so prepared, come the end of the year.

Good luck with all those poor sods coming back home with no fingers toes nose or eyelids, the lucky ones will die in the snow RT.

And that's not fantasy but historical fact my friend.

Freedom to Ukraine and down with the Russian invasion.

a reply to: andy06shake

Winter will slow Russia down but a Russian winter won’t defeat Russia anymore than it will defeat Kieve, both are in their homelands. Russia has access to all their requirements and the manpower.
Hitler had three or four fronts, 80 odd year old tech, an overwhelming well equipped Russian army at his throat and Napoleon, he had no food or modern transport and @ 200 year old tech and you think comparing is valid

I think the “critical drinker” is right, Scottish people on average are not built for thinking

Russia has fuel to burn, free fuel to burn, you would be a military clown to think a Russian winter is beyond Russian comprehension

a reply to: Raggedyman

I think the “critical drinker” is right, Scottish people on average are not built for thinking

Really, because "Scottish people" built the better part of your own nation.

Then there is the 33-degree Scottish right Masonry that are all over the place and in extreme positions of power throughout your 50 states.

Some of the most prominent inventions known to Man have come from the minds of Scots.

My comparison is as valid today as it was during the arse end of Operation Barbarossa, cold is cold you see.

And Russia is ill-equipped for a summer campaign right now. Running short of supplies and munitions, also running out of manpower and basic foodstuffs never mind being able to survive a winter campaign.

Time will tell Raggedyman and time is not on Putin's side.

www.scotsman.com...
www.bbc.co.uk...

a reply to: andy06shake
Winter is coming soon. Then we'll see.))))