Could Russia/Ukraine standoff be an interconnected plot to drive gas prices higher?

Although for long, Russia has decried NATO expansion, there seems to be no real reason now to put high pressure on Ukraine. So, why are they?

Globally speaking since the onset of the pandemic, crude and gas prices had all but sank, obviously leaving big oil and Russian oligarchs reaping less for their investment not to mention all OPEC nations. I feel it's safe to assume that they would like to see a resurgence of that purchasing power return. The upward pressure of gas prices is noticeable.

While reading an AP article on gas prices in NJ alone this morning, it occurred to me that perhaps this "standoff" could be a coordinated event to hike the prices of gas under the auspice of a global squeeze by Russia as a counter-measure to purported NATO expansion. If that were the case, its a win-win for everyone except anyone who isnt a CEO at big oil or a Russian oligarch.

As noted in the AP article:

Tracy Noble, spokesperson for AAA Mid-Atlantic, says concern that Russia will react to potential western sanctions by withholding crude oil from the already tight global market has put heavy upward pressure on crude oil prices. If they continue to climb, Noble says gas prices will likely follow suit.

A year ago, people in NJ were paying almost a dollar less per gallon than right now.

AAA Mid-Atlantic says the average price of a gallon of regular gas in New Jersey on Friday was $3.56, up 12 cents from last week. Drivers were paying an average of $2.64 a gallon a year ago at this time.

That loss has to affect their pocketbooks. The 3 prior month futures of gas look like this:



So, it leads me to question Western and OPEC country as well as Russian involvement in stoking the fears of invasion to Ukraine. I mean lets face it, once gas prices rise to pre-pandemic pricepoints, a reason to lower them would be almost impossible.

Anyone else thinks this could be possible?

gas has gone up 20-30 cents here this month.

if Putin backs off in April, we'll know this was a possibility.

The whole Ukraine/Russia thing might be connected to Ukraine's old debt to Russia from a few years ago.

Something like a $3 Billion Ukraine default in 2016?

Look deeper and see it 🔥

So yup, the plan is to get gas prices higher so some people can recover 🥥

a reply to: alphabetaone

I wonder if you recall what events transpired in the past 4 years that drove gas prices lower?

We even had members on this very site explaining how the system worked as they had businesses doing the exact work that made all of that possible.

when it gets YOUR wallet, all of the sudden, it's a real thing.

originally posted by: network dude
a reply to: alphabetaone

I wonder if you recall what events transpired in the past 4 years that drove gas prices lower?

The pandemic where travel almost came to a standstill?

originally posted by: network dude

We even had members on this very site explaining how the system worked as they had businesses doing the exact work that made all of that possible.

Im truly confused on 2 things, what "system worked", and what that has to do with a coordinated plan to artificially raise the price of gas?

originally posted by: network dude

when it gets YOUR wallet, all of the sudden, it's a real thing.

It really has nothing to do with affecting wallets, but more to do with whether or not raising the prices is the goal. The cost is an afterthought.

a reply to: alphabetaone

I think any discussion about how gas prices are manipulated by OPEC, and others who can drive supply, thus effecting the cost, should show how the US was able to manufacture enough energy that we became a net exporter of oil for a short time, and what changed that is Biden undoing much of what the previous administration had done.

If the US wasn't dependent on OPEC as much as we are, then their ability to change the supply side of supply and demand, would have less of an impact on the cost of fuel in the US.

a reply to: alphabetaone

Yes thats 1 of the birds.

originally posted by: alphabetaone


Im truly confused on 2 things, what "system worked", and what that has to do with a coordinated plan to artificially raise the price of gas?

When Trump took office, he looked at things from a business perspective and not from a world dominating perspective. He was quickly able to enact a few things that allowed production of fuel of our own to be made at a much faster rate, allowing us to rely much less on OPEC and others. Some state we were energy independent, and having seen the arguments against that, I don't think that's a totally factual statement, but we were a net exporter of gas.
www.eia.gov...

Obviously there are many more moving parts to the world petro dollar, and those forces are collectively working to drive the prices back up. (IMHO) Sort of the exact thing your post said. The pandemic and lockdowns did have a massive effect on the DEMAND part of the math. But since that dynamic has changed, we are now subject to the manipulation we see today.

Trump proved it was possible, but he also proved that those who would loose billions, would rather not, and will try to win, ...wait for it.....BAMN.

originally posted by: network dude
a reply to: alphabetaone

I think any discussion about how gas prices are manipulated by OPEC, and others who can drive supply, thus effecting the cost, should show how the US was able to manufacture enough energy that we became a net exporter of oil for a short time, and what changed that is Biden undoing much of what the previous administration had done.

If the US wasn't dependent on OPEC as much as we are, then their ability to change the supply side of supply and demand, would have less of an impact on the cost of fuel in the US.

We aren't all that dependent on OPEC these days. Our net oil imports peaked at 60% of total consumption in 2005 under George W. Bush and have continued to decline constantly ever since. By the time Obama left office net oil imports were down to about 24% of our consumption. By 2020, under Trump, net imports were effectively zero. This is driven by two long term trends which seem to have persisted over all three presidents. First, total consumption also peaked in 2005, declined through 2012--the first half of Obama's term--and then slowly increased through the last half of his term. Total consumption continued to grow under Trump through 2019, but never quite reached the peak it did under Bush. So demand was not really growing, on the average. In 2020, the first year of the pandemic, consumption fell off a cliff and still hasn't recovered. The reason we were self sufficient in oil in 2020 is because of the pandemic. If we had not experienced the recession that occurred as a result of that, we probably would have been a (small) net importer for the last couple of years:

www.eia.gov...

Next year is forecast to be a boom year for oil production in the US, driven by market forces:

worldoil.com...

I'm sure that Biden's popularity will get a boost from that, even though he has nothing to do with it. That's how it always goes; the President (whoever that happens to be at any given time) gets the benefit when gas prices are low and loses popularity when they are high, even though he has almost nothing to do with prices at the pump.

a reply to: 1947boomer

How dare you bring reason, and critical thinking in here.

You should know better.

I think you're on the right track. The trajectory of the scamdemic lock downs, mandates and forced vaccinations have all been primarily in Western (i.e. European) countries. NZ and Australia are of the same stock. Africa, Asia, India? they have been less affected both by covid as well as the government overkill methods.

This is all about taking down the most economically and technologically advanced countries since they are the greatest obstacle to world corporate governance.

So this happens this morning

Russia's defense ministry claimed Tuesday that it started pulling back some troop units taking part in military exercises near Ukraine's border, but it gave no specific details on where the troops were pulling back from, or how many.

And, sort of like magic, this happens too

US oil prices jumped above $95 a barrel Monday for the first time since 2014 on concerns about the Russia-Ukraine conflict. However, crude reversed course Tuesday morning, falling to $92 a barrel.

What a coincidence, no? Oil slips while the DOW futures surge.....thats a big coincidence. If I were an investor, i would certainly bet on 2 things, that Putin wil disavow any progress made, and that as a result, oil futures will climb back up.

Hey if Biden says we have a beef with Russia, why did he close the Embassy in Ukraine and leave the Embassy in Russia open ? 🤣🤣🤣🤣

a reply to: xuenchen
Good point.

originally posted by: xuenchen
Hey if Biden says we have a beef with Russia, why did he close the Embassy in Ukraine and leave the Embassy in Russia open ? 🤣🤣🤣🤣

Having a beef with someone and being at war with someone is entirely different.

The Ukranian embassy staff was moved out of Kyiv and into Lviv, to protect them in the event of hostilities...it was a pragmatic move.

Right now, we're not exactly willing to completely sever ties (nor should we in the near-future) with Russia.