Analyzing the effectiveness of vaccines against new Covid-19 strains, part 2

It's been a few months since I did my first analysis so I thought it might be interesting to do the same thing again using the newest data. I'm not going to explain everything again so if you want to know exactly what these charts are showing then read the first analysis. The period of time I analyzed doesn't overlap with my first analysis so I thought it would be interesting to see if I get the same or different results. This analysis also looks at a longer period of time (the last 3 and half months) so it should be more reliable than the first.



This first chart showing the cases per capita vs the vaccination rate is really quite shocking, it demonstrates very clearly that there is a correlation between cases per capita and the amount of vaccines administered to a population. Now, some might claim those largely unvaccinated countries who are reporting very low case numbers don't really have low case numbers, they just have less effective Covid testing systems in place. However, we can ignore those poor nations and still see a very clear pattern in this data. The vaccine is causing case numbers to rise on average, meaning the vaccine wont prevent the spread of Covid and may even exacerbate it.



This second chart shows the deaths per case vs the vaccination rate, and again we see the same trend that we saw in the first analysis. This is actually quite strong evidence that the vaccine will reduce the severity of Covid symptoms and reduce the risk of death. However, I could also argue that the poorer nations who are less vaccinated also have less effective medical systems and they live in harsher conditions. Which could explain part of this correlation, but I'm not about to completely deny there does appear to be some correlation, just like we shouldn't deny the obvious correlation seen in the first chart.



This third chart shows the deaths per capita vs the vaccination rate, and once again we see what looks like a Gaussian distribution. Since the vaccine will cause higher case numbers it will also cause more deaths from Covid, but the vaccine will also reduce the chances of dying from Covid. Those two things work against each other, resulting in this strange trend where the most vaccinated and least vaccinated countries are doing fairly well, but those in the middle have the highest deaths per capita on average. Some may argue this is why we need to make sure everyone gets vaccinated but that is bogus logic for several reasons.

First of all, if a vaccine doesn't prevent the spread of a virus, and in fact allows the virus to spread more easily, then I would be very hesitant to call it a vaccine. A vaccine which doesn't prevent the spread of a virus is not going to stop this "pandemic", the science of pandemics is very clear, when 50% to 70% of a population has been vaccinated the pandemic will completely end because the virus wont be able to infect enough people. That's not the case with Covid, we have populations with well over 90% of their people vaccinated. Vaccinated people can still catch and spread the virus, but they are less likely to experience severe symptoms.

That means there is absolutely no argument for mandatory vaccines. We're simply not going to stop the spread of Covid regardless of what actions we take, most of us will catch it at some point. It's completely understandable if some people have personal circumstances which make them feel like they need a vaccine for Covid, it will give them some protection which might outweigh the risk of any side effects. However, I'm still relatively young and have always had a good immune system. Even knowing the risks of vaccine side effects are extremely small, I still prefer to rely on my immune system instead of boosters every 4 to 6 months.

The only person the vaccine protects is me so it should be a personal choice. Vaccinated people act like they have no faith in the vaccine, I seem to have more faith in it than most of them because I accept the fact it does provide some protection. It's very simple, if you want some protection then get the vaccine, so long as you're willing to risk any potential side effects by getting vaccinated every 4 to 6 months with a vaccine which has more adverse events than all other vaccines combined going back decades. Or you could take the risk which comes with not being vaccinated, and have a higher chance of severe symptoms in the event you do contract Covid.

But I'm not going to yell or force anyone into anything, because I'm not a delusional authoritarian. I accept those who wish to be vaccinated and those who don't. A few weeks ago there was a news story in Australia about one of our sun screen products having an ingredient which could cause cancer, and this is a well known brand which has been around for decades. The human body and our biological functions are more complex than almost anything else in our current realm of science. Therefore it's utterly ridiculous to claim mRNA technology which targets a novel virus and has never been used on this scale before is not experimental.

Here's the legend for the above charts:

Before I wrap up this thread I have 2 more charts which I think are very interesting. Recently, we're seeing a lot of fearmongering because Omicron is causing case numbers to spike to record levels all around the world. We're now seeing new mandates which confine unvaccinated people to their homes and fines for people who refuse to be vaccinated in places such as Austria. However, what no one seems to be mentioning is how global deaths from Covid have reached record lows, and if things continue on this course the "pandemic" could be almost completely over in several months. To be fair, I have heard some experts predict it could be over soon.



In the above chart I have summed the case numbers and death numbers for most nations in the world in order to get a global representation of the data. As we can see, Omicron has indeed caused a large spike in cases, yet at the end of last year the death line dropped below the case line for the first time ever. This indicates the Omicron strain is at least an order of magnitude less deadly than the earlier variants. Also, the fact Omicron can spread so rapidly in countries which have vaccinated over 90% of the population is all the evidence you need to know the vaccine wont stop the spread of Covid in the slightest.



This last chart shows the number of deaths per case vs the total number of vaccines administered. The number of deaths per case is a good measure of how deadly a virus is because it tells us what fraction of cases result in death. For example a value of 0.02 would mean 2% of cases result in death, or 98% of people survive. For a while it hovered around the 0.02 range but Omicron has taken it down by an order of magnitude to the 0.002 range. If we also account for the fact most who die from Covid have multiple other health conditions or were simply near the end of their life the true lethality of Omicron is almost laughable.

Even if the early strains of Covid were quite deadly, the blue line shows us how the virus has evolved over time to become less deadly, even if it becomes more transmissible. I will admit the line does seem to drop as the vaccinations given rises, and I don't doubt the vaccine has some role in that because I accept the data which shows the vaccine will reduce severe cases. But it's also clear to see new strains of Covid are becoming less deadly, and there is well established science to tell us why that occurs, why all pandemics eventually burn out. My point is, we have high vaccination rates and very mild strains, there's no need for the fear anymore.

a reply to: ChaoticOrder

Nothing to say really, the numbers say it all.

Nice work.

SnF.

Well, here is interesting info about an antibody treatment that works. Now answer this, if the antibody protects others as a treatment and is present in people who have had it, why wouldn't this antibody from getting the disease protect the person who got the virus well? Evidently the antibody lasts fourteen days when injected, and there are no cells in that person producing the antibody so it is temporary while those who had the virus are constantly making it for who knows how long.

Read this and see if you come to the same conclusion as I did that natural immunity is superior to the vaccines we presently have. It is important to Note that this is not the antibody stimulated by vaccines.

scitechdaily.com...

I don't know if the vaccines or the higher contagability are the cause of high case numbers, but it's obvious when the vaccinated don't ever have to show they're covid-free but the unvaccinated do, the vaccinated are the ones doing the spreading.

a reply to: nugget1

I don't know if the vaccines or the higher contagability are the cause of high case numbers

It's a combination. Omicron is clearly much more contagious than previous strains including Delta. The vaccine does seem to increase case numbers, because it doesn't prevent infection or transmission, but vaccinated people feel safer to go back to living a normal life and they have less restrictions placed on them. The vaccine may also cause more asymptomatic cases because it helps prevent severe symptoms. But the vaccine wouldn't be enough to account for the massive spike in cases, also the spike in cases corresponds to the emergence of Omicron, plus the vaccines have been rolling out long before this Omicron spike.

a reply to: ChaoticOrder

It no work

www.timesofisrael.com...

This thread really should be pinned as suggested reading along with a corresponding well thought out supported counterpoint if there is one that still exists.

originally posted by: ChaoticOrder
a reply to: nugget1

I don't know if the vaccines or the higher contagability are the cause of high case numbers

It's a combination. Omicron is clearly much more contagious than previous strains including Delta. The vaccine does seem to increase case numbers, because it doesn't prevent infection or transmission, but vaccinated people feel safer to go back to living a normal life and they have less restrictions placed on them. The vaccine may also cause more asymptomatic cases because it helps prevent severe symptoms. But the vaccine wouldn't be enough to account for the massive spike in cases, also the spike in cases corresponds to the emergence of Omicron, plus the vaccines have been rolling out long before this Omicron spike.

So, Omicron is more contagious, the vaxed are the only ones allowed to 'roam' free without proof the don't have covid- and the vaxed ( being the majority) are successfully infecting each other in record numbers.
Crazy times.

originally posted by: ChaoticOrder
a reply to: nugget1

I don't know if the vaccines or the higher contagability are the cause of high case numbers

It's a combination. Omicron is clearly much more contagious than previous strains including Delta. The vaccine does seem to increase case numbers, because it doesn't prevent infection or transmission, but vaccinated people feel safer to go back to living a normal life and they have less restrictions placed on them. The vaccine may also cause more asymptomatic cases because it helps prevent severe symptoms. But the vaccine wouldn't be enough to account for the massive spike in cases, also the spike in cases corresponds to the emergence of Omicron, plus the vaccines have been rolling out long before this Omicron spike.

Well looking at all of this am I wrong in thinking the next to be hit will be 4-6 months after most people were getting their 2nd vaccine doses. We may already be seeing these heavily vaccinated states are getting popped a bit with hospitalizations and deaths

New Hampshire with 100% of the population with one dose 67% are fully vaccinated, yet the graph below tells a different story. Approximately 6 months after max vaccinations New Hampshire is getting loads of cases and ATH's in hospitalizations, not a good look in a heavily vaccinated population

So it looks like the vaccinated are killing more unvaccinated. if we all remained unvaccinated we'd be more like to stay in bed rather than walking around spreading it.

Thanks CO