For those who think a China invasion / attack on Taiwan is inevitable, what year does it happen?

Sooner rather than later, this admin won't do anything beyond send a mildly worded letter, taking taiwan would also put them into a position to strangle the technological advancements of the west for some time.

after 2024 there is a good chance, an administration will be in power willing to tangle with china over taiwan so its either sooner or never really.

originally posted by: Irishhaf


after 2024 there is a good chance, an administration will be in power willing to tangle with china over taiwan so its either sooner or never really.

Spot on and Russia along with China will never have a better chance of taking back what they believe belongs to them.

With the pivot to surround China it's got to be now or never. Same with Putin and taking Ukraine.

From a bystanders perspective if these two nations don't act soon it will result in more Yanks and Brits etc on their borders, more NATO colonisation through bases / military training / supplies locally of war machinery. Encirclement of Russia and China is going to continue as sure as night follows day.

I'm no fan boy of either side in war and it's just totally horrendous. But from a Russian and Chinese perspective there will as you say never be a better time with America so divided plus ruled by a demented President to take back what is historically their and keep NATO out of the equation.

a reply to: dontneedaname

Before 2025

They need Taiwan to grow food, China will be to cold to produce sufficient

removed

originally posted by: ICycle2
a reply to: dontneedaname

Before 2025

They need Taiwan to grow food, China will be to cold to produce sufficient

China is making great strides to become more sufficient in food security. They have laws to reduce food waste, laws to increase food production etc.

In recent years, China’s food security has been closely linked to its national security. Food security has been listed as equally important as national energy security and finance security in the face of threats from the China-U.S. trade war and a “complicated global environment.” The importance of food security has been publicly noted by various top Chinese leaders. In April 2021, Chinese President Xi Jinping declared that “food security is an important foundation for national security.” The importance of food security was further emphasized by Tang Renjian, the new minister of agriculture and rural affairs, who additionally highlighted two key components of food security: seeds, “the ‘computer chips’ of agriculture,” and cultivated land, the “‘lifeblood’ of food production.”

Grain security was included in the Chinese central government’s 14th Five-Year Plan (2021-2025) draft for the first time. Under the plan, which sets out China’s national economic and social development objectives, China must achieve an annual grain production of more than 650 million tons a year. Also included in the plan are specific arrangements for the implementation of a food security strategy, including improving the entire industry for grains, and the development of agricultural and rural areas.

China has incorporated 'No waste' policies in the food department and increased their ability to produce more to attain food security. They also recently advised families on stock piling of food and items. China is a many tentacled animal and what they can't produce, they can take if it comes to that.

China has positioned themselves quite nicely on the world stage. They're clearly controlling W.H.O. and the UN while it's no secret that America is in decline on many fronts.

China heads four of the 15 principal agencies of the UN and has its deputies in nine other agencies, Mumbai-based Gateway House: Indian Council on Global Relations said in a report. Plus, there is a network of Chinese nationals at the lower rungs of the UN system as career professionals or diplomats.

They are also deeply integrated with Africa which is now their ally.

The mere population numbers are staggering:



About the only thing positive is China's negative popularity rating pretty much across the board with most of the world.



Unfortunately, being popular doesn't win battles or wars.

And then there's this article dated 11/4/21:

In recent days, the U.S. government said China tested a hypersonic missile that circumnavigated the globe and that Beijing plans by 2030 to quadruple its nuclear warhead total from the low 200s to roughly 1,000.
www.politico.com...

Of course it states "by 2030" but that's what, roughly 80 more per year? So, in two years, another 160 for a total of 360? Even if there's a delayed accumulation of their total, why are they now doing this so aggressively?

originally posted by: Irishhaf
Sooner rather than later, this admin won't do anything beyond send a mildly worded letter, taking taiwan would also put them into a position to strangle the technological advancements of the west for some time.

after 2024 there is a good chance, an administration will be in power willing to tangle with china over taiwan so its either sooner or never really.

but what if (some in) China wants the US to intervene

they want to show they can defeat the USA in a conventional war.

After all, if you've been humiliated (Historically in past century)....to overcome that you need to take down the bully. Telling the bully to just stay away is not enough.

Of course, if nukes are used, that's a separate story.

If one merely wanted to keep people from invading, nukes would be (largely) enough and a smaller conventional force.

But China is building a much larger conventional force. And one thing leads to another....you soon want to dominate. And it's right in the name of chinese name of China.

You want to be:

a reply to: visitedbythem

Christ is coming soon. He will fix this, his Rule started in 1994, the year of him being born again in Christ, in himself, so he’s Catholic, to come from Heaven the same way he came the first time, thru birth, he’s 27 now and is getting ready for his official second Coming, when all will see him come from the clouds. Ie. Like the Prophets told us. Amen. InShAlla. Merry Christmas 🎄.

2022. China will want it to be pretty much over by the time Trump or DeSantis wins the next presidency.

a reply to: dontneedaname

Biggest thing I can see holding them back is their own weakness on tactics and capabilities for moving that massive land force anywhere.

It is one thing to build the boats, it's something wildly different to manage the logistics, and land troops under fire.

a reply to: StoutBroux

You did your homework well on your post. Millions of Americans don't know what you posted does affect their lives.

a reply to: dontneedaname

They need to do it before trade returns to pre 2020 levels.It can't be so soon that it disrupts the return though. It will be more electronical warfare than armements. They need the country whole as possible or it's pointless. Starvation & civil disbandonment would be the efficient course of action. Noone want missles flying across a world trade route.

There is no set date because it depends on how the world recoups after this silence. Also, it is already happening, psyops, economical fractions & translucent cross country engineering.

I has to be over before the next US Presidential election cycle, so it’s going to start very soon. I expect early next spring.

originally posted by: rigel4
a reply to: dontneedaname

For many reasons ... i think they will never attack Taiwan.
For other purposes .. Strategically they will do it next year .. Why?

Good chance of Russia invading Ukraine... Sleepy joe will have his hands full with that if it comes to pass.

Spring time 22 is the start of the Window the Chinese have with the sea conditions in the Taiwan straight to land an invasion fleet.


Likely all wrong but its my best assessment.

Id say April as the weather will allow it. And the clock is ticking they know they want Joe Biden in office so it will be soon. Even Putin figured out Joe is useless so expect the rest of Ukraine to fall also. When you have a president that is hiding from the press and can't read a teleprompter they know its safe.

a reply to: dontneedaname

The very first opportunity they get, which is impossible to predict.

a reply to: dontneedaname

It will happen 1 month after china is sure that they can bet the usa in a fight.

Or if china is sure that the usa will not fight.

Many people from all over the world come to ats.

It's nice to see that so many understand the piece we have on earth has a lot to do with the strength of the usa.

Everything/anything "governments" are going to do, is prepared at least 10 years in advance. All information is about getting the "national pride" ready for "hard times" and the "unity" that is needed to win!...

The point is? Is that it will happen! It doesn't matter when. China sees Taiwan as a "war" that is unfinished... And China is right!

The only thing that is left for "us plebes", that still hate the ideaoledgy of Communism, Socialism and the weakness of "Democracy", (Which only leads to Communism, Socialism (Nazism)...
Is to support the last outpost of Chinese people that should've won the war, that is still being fought.

a reply to: Irishhaf

I don't see many asking if the usa should fight china over taiwan.

But should we?

We didn't fight russia over the ukraine. Imagine if we had. We would be years into world war 3 right now. Would there even be working internet for us to come and speculate on? Would you and I have been drafted to the front lines? Would our kids?

But then I think of history. I'm sure we all know about appeasement and how well that worked on hitler.
And then there are treaties to consider.

The real question, the hard question , is this; Is world war 3 better than letting china take over taiwan?

originally posted by: scraedtosleep
a reply to: Irishhaf

I don't see many asking if the usa should fight china over taiwan.

But should we?

We didn't fight russia over the ukraine. Imagine if we had. We would be years into world war 3 right now. Would there even be working internet for us to come and speculate on? Would you and I have been drafted to the front lines? Would our kids?

But then I think of history. I'm sure we all know about appeasement and how well that worked on hitler.
And then there are treaties to consider.

The real question, the hard question , is this; Is world war 3 better than letting china take over taiwan?

Ukraine doesn't equal Taiwan. Tell me the strategic value of Ukraine to the USA?

Taiwan supplied 65% of world semiconductors.

Correction to initial post.

China only has an estimate ~50 J-20s (Not 150-200 as I wrote), some/most with older engines which don't make it a "true" 5th Gen fighter.

[Different sources say different things, but journalists make mistakes, which means I'm gonna make a mistake. Otherwise I'm nearly perfect. /s]

If what I posted in another thread is semi-accurate:

www.abovetopsecret.com...

"This analysis feeds into an attack timetable. If you believe the press reports -- 4 J-20 Mfg lines are operational, making 1/month. That's ~50 aircraft per year. Not 100% clear how many J-20s China has now....but if we say the NEW J-20B (or whatever) is now entering production per reports in 2021...would take about 5 years to amass 200-250 of them. "


~ONE per month per LINE.


So...China cannot go to war over Taiwan until mid-2020s, as they do not have the right equipment. NOT ENOUGH:

- amphibious assault ships
- not enough advanced fighters to counter US F-35 / F-22
- nuclear deterrent not enough (In their eyes)

That's why reports say not ready until 2025, though technically they have an "initial" capability now. Near term scare mongering / kick in the pants motivation statements.





General Miley doesn't see anything in next 2 years or so. Which I concur.


I think too much importance is placed on who is US President. If you don't have the military might, it doesn't matter who is US president for the most part.

I think a large part of the 2nd chapter/part of the attack is a DRONE attack. To draw out Taiwan anti-air systems, etc...and to locate & destroy.
China needs more time to build sufficient DRONES. They have many now, but new newer and better.

1st chapter - missile attack

but think a separate post is better to delve into war scenario / game planning.