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For those who think a China invasion / attack on Taiwan is inevitable, what year does it happen?

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posted on Nov, 26 2021 @ 05:49 PM
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Of course, there is the separate question of how drawn in the USA / Japan / Australia will be...but let's keep it simple and focus on the invasion year.

Right now I am stating - 2027 at the earliest. I reckon it could happen a little earlier or later - 28/29....anyway, here's my research / logic:


China will have another election in 2022 - after China Winter Olympics. Xi Jinping likely supported/elected for another 5 years - as 2 term limit abolished in 2018. 2022-2027. [Maybe this is where the attack by 2027 remarks came from some now retired admiral or what not]

www.republicworld.com... .html [just found that]

China won't do anything in 2022. Earliest probable invasion is 2023 then. Invasion can only happen in certain months due to weather. Reports stating China will be ready by 2025 are floating around.

My logic that it won't happen until around 2027 is: [In addition to being the end of Xi Jinping's assumed 3rd term]


China:

3rd aircraft carrier will be ready/more seasoned
chinapower.csis.org...

4th aircraft carrier just starting construction supposedly, thus if timeline on #3 holds, will be ready for launch by 2025, active 2027..(takes about 4 years if #3 rumor -> launch is any guide. +2 more years for active service) reports that it could be nuclear powered.
eurasiantimes.com...


Reports of China wanting to build 3 of these potentially nuclear categories...earlier reports stated 2035 to have 10 or something like that.
But Chinese can be quite secretive/deceptive...so could secretly be building these pieces. And in a few years - boom it's revealed, they are almost ready to go. Which would mean not just a 4th one, but #5 and #6 too?

Building more amphibious assault carriers. Currently at 8 per Wikipedia + 1 of these bigger ones.

edition.cnn.com...

2 more coming online soon. Type 75. China will need more of these amphibious assault ships before they can strike....that alone pushes out any attack for a few years at least.


www.washingtontimes.com...

thediplomat.com...


Reported building of ~250+ new nuclear missile silos, which may be partially decoys, but maybe some new nuclear missiles as further deterrent.

fas.org...

Big jump in (quasi, 4.5?) 5th Gen J-20 aircraft production...currently number 150-200, but would have 100 more at least?

Report of J-31 (more direct F-35 competitor) may be ready to go by mid-to late 2020s as well. At least in limited quantities. To be used on new aircraft carriers.

Lots more China drones
news.yahoo.com...

bases under construction

www.thedrive.com...

www.thedrive.com...

---
So that's the logic for China build up.

Now, Taiwan is busy building their arms.


TAIWAN
---------


Upgrade of F-16s to F-16V will be completed by 2023 - 141 aircraft
66 new F-16V to arrive by 2026 [competitive with most of China's air force, but as more J-20s come out....]

Upgrading missile air defense systems - sounds like adding more sites - 12, I saw in a video? Which is needed, because the 1st wave of an attack by China would likely be a barrage of missiles. Many will get through, but the more that can be shot down....

Adding many missiles as well - 400 Boeing Harpoons ordered. Anti-ship missiles.

www.forbes.com...
www.forbes.com... a674b0d1aa0

The 400 Harpoons, fired by 100 truck-mounted quad-launchers supported by 25 mobile radars, would grow the Taiwanese anti-ship missile arsenal by half to 1,200 rounds. Locally-made Hsiung Feng II and Hsiung Feng III missiles and older Harpoon models would make up the balance....And in any event, it could be 2025 before Taiwan finally gets its new Harpoon trucks. And 2026 or later before it gets enough missiles fully to arm each truck.

1-3 new Taiwan submarines (out of 8) by this time perhaps. First delivery in 2025 reportedly. No timetable indicated for others. But since it's a first effort, there could be delays.

www.thedefensepost.com...

250 stinger missiles from USA as well....

48 Mk 48 torpedoes has been scheduled for 2028, but Taiwan is trying to get them by 2026 - for their new submarines.

--
So the longer China waits, it will have more arms / readiness to attack/deter, but then Taiwan is rapidly getting more missiles / equipment to deter. So what's the sweet spot - if you're China?

I'll say the attack "window" doesn't open until 2025, but low odds in my estimation on 2025, rising rapidly as we get to 2030.

Of course, the above leaves out USA intervention....but let's leave that out for the moment.



posted on Nov, 26 2021 @ 05:54 PM
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a reply to: dontneedaname

For many reasons ... i think they will never attack Taiwan.
For other purposes .. Strategically they will do it next year .. Why?

Good chance of Russia invading Ukraine... Sleepy joe will have his hands full with that if it comes to pass.

Spring time 22 is the start of the Window the Chinese have with the sea conditions in the Taiwan straight to land an invasion fleet.


Likely all wrong but its my best assessment.



posted on Nov, 26 2021 @ 06:00 PM
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a reply to: dontneedaname
Once they feel their navy is strong enough, in whatever year the United States is too distracted to think of intervening.
In other words, waiting for the right opportunity rather than pre-planning a date.



posted on Nov, 26 2021 @ 06:18 PM
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I believe it goes down in 2026, although it could happen previous.

There is a point where fighting breaks out everywhere. I think that was at the midpoint of the Tribulation. I am expecting nuclear war at some point during that period. Likely at the 3 1/2 year mark. I think we are close to the beginning now

For the past 50 years I wondered how people worldwide would be so diseased and have festering boils. Failed injections, and nuclear war come to mind now. It appears 58% of human kind succumbs



posted on Nov, 26 2021 @ 06:23 PM
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Some really good aggregation there, OP!

Shipyards to be rebuilt?

I know that the Navy has battled back and forth with the idea of fixingmaintaining it's current fleet vs. expanding it and adding new.

I'm sure someone more familiar with the topic can explain the current situation.

With that said, you might look to the US and it's plans to rebuild its Navy as the more determining factor.



posted on Nov, 26 2021 @ 07:01 PM
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a reply to: dontneedaname

Biden's hands are already full. They'll do it right after the Olympics if they intend to at all. At pace there won't be a need for them to do so in 2027.


Strategically, you make a good case. Especially if they need a big navy.



posted on Nov, 26 2021 @ 07:33 PM
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I believe it will happen before or during the year of 2024. The USA is in civil chaos, has no clear leadership. We couldn't even perform a military withdrawal from Afghanistan efficiently under the current administration. It literally was handled in the worst way possible.

Here is an interesting article I read recently.


China's military prepares for war, while America's military goes 'woke'

Xi insists that “peaceful reunification” is the CCP’s objective. But any reunification will be on Beijing’s terms, whether Taiwan capitulates or is invaded and subjugated. Moreover, if conflict begins, Xi knows the U.S.’s Taiwanese red line, albeit fuzzy and fleeting at times, likely still exists; American intervention could bring along Japan, Australia, likely South Korea, the Philippines and Vietnam, and possibly NATO. Nevertheless, Xi understands that regional conflict is probable, and global conflict possible, if China assaults Taiwan. Hence, the candor of his speech.

***SNIP***

But the 1990s and 2000s proved more troublesome than expected. Civilian leaders called upon the military to execute a variety of tasks, from humanitarian relief and “peace enforcement” to counterinsurgency. The Army, and the military more broadly, prophesied the erosion of American military power if the armed services did not dedicate themselves to fighting and winning conventional wars. Any additional task would hollow out U.S. military competence — see, for example, then-Lt. Col. Charles Dunlap’s fictional account of a 2012 coup, the kerfuffle over Apache gunships’ deployment to the Balkans, or even Les Aspin’s resignation as Defense secretary as examples of this trend.

It is therefore astonishing to witness the contortions the military and defense establishment have worked themselves into defending “woke” measures within the armed services.

thehill.com...


And then there's Russia and the Ukraine.

These are tense times. Xi's statements in the above article

"Those who attempt to drive a wedge between the party and the Chinese nation, he stated, will encounter “a great wall of steel forged by over 1.4 billion Chinese people.” He pledged to reinforce central control over the party, warning those who oppose its mission that they will be purged “like viruses.” He praised the party’s “courage to fight and fortitude to win,” making the CCP “invincible.” He committed to expanding and modernizing the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) to defend Chinese “sovereignty, security, and development interests.”
are extremely sobering. Especially the '1.4 billion Chinese people' part. That's the military force China has available and I'm sure with a little 'encouragement' they could quickly have many, many more. Combine the number of fearless CCP soldiers with the modern technology available to the military these days, the lack of backbone in many Western civilizations, well, it don't look pretty.
edit on 26-11-2021 by StoutBroux because: (no reason given)



posted on Nov, 26 2021 @ 07:47 PM
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originally posted by: Tempter
Some really good aggregation there, OP!

Shipyards to be rebuilt?

I know that the Navy has battled back and forth with the idea of fixingmaintaining it's current fleet vs. expanding it and adding new.

I'm sure someone more familiar with the topic can explain the current situation.

With that said, you might look to the US and it's plans to rebuild its Navy as the more determining factor.


interesting...never thought of that angle. the article states 2029 for the shipyards to be completed. way too late/slow in my timeline.



posted on Nov, 26 2021 @ 07:51 PM
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I think that Russia's move right after the Sochi Olympics into Crimea will be mimicked by China in the timing of Taiwan.

China can't wait until 2024 as the US may elect a President that the people trust; the China appeasing Dotard won't be in charge of our military forever.
edit on 26-11-2021 by GenerationGap because: (no reason given)



posted on Nov, 26 2021 @ 07:55 PM
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originally posted by: DISRAELI
a reply to: dontneedaname
Once they feel their navy is strong enough, in whatever year the United States is too distracted to think of intervening.
In other words, waiting for the right opportunity rather than pre-planning a date.



Well...on the surface I agree...but, Taiwan Semiconductor supplies 65% of world computer chips..and monopoly on certain higher end chips. for strategic reasons alone I see intervention. Maybe more guarded at first. Depends on how determined China is/ how long it drags on.

I wouldn't want to be in the stock market when the invasion starts. China surely is calculating the social / economic ramifications as well. They may not have X year, but I think they have a rough target. Or at least a small group at the top echelons directing things.

Read this the other day:

Shutting Down Historical Debate, China Makes It a Crime to Mock Heroes - NY Times

www.nytimes.com...

There's another one related too from NY Times, don't remember the title though.

China is laying the ground work...MILITARY heroes...don't want to criticize them. ---> can't criticize the war!

Also China has changed Hong Kong now. That was a step toward Taiwan. Watched a few videos about Hong Kong suppression recently.



posted on Nov, 26 2021 @ 07:55 PM
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mhm...
let me guess?

Do the 5G base stations and antenas in the world come from China?

maybe, just maaybe...

Not before the 5G is highly deployed worldwide.


what they could consider more important?
Taiwan or the 5G or the worldwide's manufacture they do?



oec.world...



posted on Nov, 26 2021 @ 08:02 PM
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www.scmp.com...

fix - 2035 report says SIX aircraft carriers by 2035.

But maybe they go faster? Who knows.



posted on Nov, 26 2021 @ 08:06 PM
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a reply to: dontneedaname

I don’t disagree with any particular part of your argument. I think they will make an attempt only when they are very certain they can win. Part of that calculation is that they need to keep the US and allies out of the fight. I think that is the reason for the build up of their ballistic missile fields. Those ballistic missiles and their nuclear warheads could easily take until 2026 to bring online.

When the day comes, I hope the US is smart enough to stay out of the shooting. We wouldn’t actually be able to prevent the mainland from achieving their objective and we would emerge out of the other side much weaker, having lost lots of personnel, ships, and planes. On the other hand, if we allow the mainland and Taiwan to fight it out, the mainland will emerge much weaker militarily and politically. Our goal should be to make the mainland lose as much as possible while “winning”.



posted on Nov, 26 2021 @ 08:13 PM
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originally posted by: lux666
mhm...
let me guess?

Do the 5G base stations and antenas in the world come from China?

maybe, just maaybe...

Not before the 5G is highly deployed worldwide.


what they could consider more important?
Taiwan or the 5G or the worldwide's manufacture they do?



oec.world...


Huawei and ZTE are competitors. The largest firms for backend are Ericcson and Nokia. Samsung has a smaller share.

www.5gtechnologyworld.com...

At some point NATIONAL PRIDE comes before some of these economics. And after all....China considers this an internal matter.



posted on Nov, 26 2021 @ 08:22 PM
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originally posted by: 1947boomer
a reply to: dontneedaname

I don’t disagree with any particular part of your argument. I think they will make an attempt only when they are very certain they can win. Part of that calculation is that they need to keep the US and allies out of the fight. I think that is the reason for the build up of their ballistic missile fields. Those ballistic missiles and their nuclear warheads could easily take until 2026 to bring online.

When the day comes, I hope the US is smart enough to stay out of the shooting. We wouldn’t actually be able to prevent the mainland from achieving their objective and we would emerge out of the other side much weaker, having lost lots of personnel, ships, and planes. On the other hand, if we allow the mainland and Taiwan to fight it out, the mainland will emerge much weaker militarily and politically. Our goal should be to make the mainland lose as much as possible while “winning”.


yes. I haven't researched nuclear warhead construction timing much...but I know in the 1960s, USA/Russia quickly ramped up.
ok...just did this. So, yes, time to get this "deterrent" online pushes things out by several years as well.

nypost.com...
duckduckgo.com...
www.cbsnews.com...

Some of the points addressing whether US / Australia etc should intervene are covered here:





Tons of China-Taiwan war related videos / critiques are online now, most in the last 1 year.



of course...if you are in the "end times camp" then China-Taiwan leading to a larger war fits right in.



posted on Nov, 26 2021 @ 08:42 PM
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One big question is, what will America's defense of Tawain amount to substantially?

Will they send arms or actual intervention of troops, advisors?


Advisors, military hardware, and advice, sure, but would that be enough to repel China? And what will Japan do, or NATO do in addition to US aid?

Remember, Vietnam and most recently Afghanistan doesn't bode well for America's successful defense of Tawain, let's face it.



posted on Nov, 26 2021 @ 09:32 PM
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When the artificial islands China have been created and the military hardware is installed, then the heat from the tiger may jump. Until, nothing.
edit on 1100000020332021-11-26T21:33:20-06:00332011pm9 by musicismagic because: (no reason given)



posted on Nov, 26 2021 @ 10:37 PM
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If you attack in one direction, you want to guard your other borders - realizing there could be spillover or another front opening. Perhaps that's another reason China wants more nukes...fend off India.

Tracking China's Sudden Airpower Expansion On Its Western Border

www.thedrive.com...

China Is Building A Massive Helicopter Base On The Tibetan Plateau

www.thedrive.com...

Chinese Navy Using Commercial Car Ferries to Launch Amphibious Landing Craft - July 2021

news.usni.org...-87542

twitter discussion about adapting non-military ships for an amphibious invasion

twitter.com...


found some more info on Taiwan missiles. All these trucks/ground units will be important for PLA to take out and for Taiwan to keep mobile / hide. I think it's probable a significant % of Taiwan aircraft will be grounded due to runways being destroyed in a massive missile strike. And even if they do take off, where do they land if the runway is then destroyed?

Taiwan would definitely take out quite a few China installations / missile sites with return fire, and PLA would have to worry about their aircraft being taken out...and quite a few would be.

Taiwan Wants More Missiles. That’s Not a Bad Thing.


Taiwan aims missiles at China to foil invasion plans



www.overtdefense.com...

The US State Department had announced in late October 2020 that it had approved the sales of 11 HIMARS launchers and 67 ATACMS missiles for them, alongside 100 HCDS units and 400 Harpoon Block II missiles for them.

The ROC Army Command Headquarters is overseeing the HIMARS contract, which took effect on 1 June. The contract is valued at NT$9.62 billion (~US$346 million), with completion of system deployment expected in 2027. Navy Command Headquarters is tasked with oversight of the NT$39 billion (~$1.4 billion) HCDS contract that took effect on May 19, with the delivered HCDS expected to be deployed in 2028.



posted on Nov, 26 2021 @ 10:42 PM
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All those weapons/missiles/torpedoes are being delivered in 2026-2028..assuming no delays. It's gonna be interesting.

this is a good reference as well.

China amphibious ships wiki

Found the NY Times articles:

Xi Jinping rewriting the past

China’s Xi Jinping Remakes the Communist Party’s History in His Image


mk48 torpedo taking out a destroyer




posted on Nov, 26 2021 @ 10:50 PM
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2030 soft coup. China isn't attacking anyone. World hates them and it's not their style. They do not like warfare because that has been their downfall for centuries. They are not good at physical warfare. They get beat because the regimes are fragile. The current regime is very fragile. One false move and the whole thing topples. Xi can't leave the country. That's how fragile it has become. He ramps up tyranny but again, like all Chinese regimes more tyranny leads to collapse. They are very close to failure.




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