Bleak science-based pandemic economic forecast

The following Bloomberg QuickTake post of September 12, 2021 is based on in-depth interviews with the eminent US epidemiologist Michael Osterholm, MD, MPH, and others:www.bloomberg.com...

In the next three to six months, what pandemic patterns do the leading epidemiologists see? As Edward Snowden once said, "nothing good."
And beyond six months? Not much is expected to change anytime soon. Economic teams at Bloomberg online then developed economic projections based on that science data. Such projections would normally have been done some time ago, but since SARS-CoV-2 is a novel virus,
a robust data set first had to be collected. That has now been done.

a reply to: Uphill

Tick Tock

Time is running out.

Most Roads Are Currently Leading To The Same Destination

www.abovetopsecret.com...

I disagree with the opening statement:

The race between vaccinations and new variant strains won’t end until Covid-19 has touched almost everyone.

It will never end. This is the new toy in the totalitarian toy box. It's new, is shiny, it's powerful and they are having fun with it. They will never let it go.

This was the plan from the beginning.

If you want a picture of the future, imagine a boot stamping on a human face—for ever. ~Geo. Orwell

they worry about the "next" vaccine resistant variant of corona

when the original, diet, fat free, variant of corona is vaccine resistant.

originally posted by: sraven
they worry about the "next" vaccine resistant variant of corona

when the original, diet, fat free, variant of corona is vaccine resistant.

and that is a feature . . . they designed the vaccine to be leaky
that means it was designed to allow corona to resist it.

a reply to: incoserv Incoserv and everyone, that is a chilling quote you provided from the one and only George Orwell. The American Library Association's publications catalog has a section related to intellectual freedom. Among other items there, they also sell bookmarks and a coffee mug, all labeled with the slogan, Make Orwell Fiction Again. ... no kidding.

The US government is continuing to look at all available evidence of where this novel virus came from, but that question is still far from settled. As time goes on, my impression is more that there was a natural origin, either somewhere in the People's Republic of China or possibly even incoming from a comet during a "favorable" lull in solar activity. If I had to vote right now, I'd recommend looking at Asian offshore marine mammals ... (theory says if it's from an animal source, that animal has to be a mammal). And last I heard, all of the in-depth genetic analysis done on Chinese mammals was only from *land* animals.

Getting back to the OP, however, since Bloomberg News has now started to look seriously at a much longer probable duration for the COVID-19 pandemic, they're also going to have to start reporting on long-term demographic effects, such as a possible extended drop in the human birth rate.

a reply to: Uphill

When they said newborn babies will be at risk, I quit reading. I started to suspect the moment I read that he was biden's covid advisor.

a reply to: Uphill

Bloomberg?

I bet he likes Bleak forecasts.

They don't want to come right out and say it will last 3 or 4 years like the Spanish Flu, instead they say it will probably last forever. There is truth to what they say in the details, except they have a very pessimistic view that it will never end. It will depend on how long governments can stretch this out, maybe forever, but I doubt it, nothing lasts forever.

I think we are looking at a 5 year timescale. There is potential for alot of misery ahead, not just with the virus and its variants but also with its impact on global supply chains, inflation and 'The West' tensions with China which are likely to be exasperated by further inquests into the particulars around the virus's emergence and spread around the globe. I can forsee a big war off the back of this unfortunately.

a reply to: Uphill

a reply to: Kuryous Kuryous and everyone, a big war off the back of this? Possibly eventually, but it's hard to see any of Earth's countries being willing to start a war while there is still no end in sight to this pandemic.

Meanwhile, I was just at the grocery store today (California), where a 5-pound bag of organic white flour is now going for the eye-watering price of $8.49 ... that's a big price hike since the start of the pandemic. Oddly, at that same store, vegetable prices are unchanged, even the organics.

And one hour ago, Reuters News posted a news article on US shortages in hospital and medical supplies:

www.msn.com...

In that article, they explain that many of these shortages are caused by raw materials shortages. Another recent news article pointed out that US shortages of house paint are largely caused by a shortage in metal cans that the paint is sold in at US home improvement stores. It's always something.

they did it to themselves, and the proles stood on their doorsteps and cheered it all along.

a reply to: carewemust

carewemust and everyone, the bias of Bloomberg in general is to focus mainly on large organizations driving the world's economies, plus also often taking a look at interesting economic trends. During and after 2020, however, they have carefully watched pandemic trends as well. This particular article is strikingly pessimistic, that's what caught my attention.

Their main news competitor seems to be the The Economist magazine, in terms of breaking economic news in print, on news websites and in social media. The Economist has avoiding forecasting any duration for the pandemic. So Bloomberg is trying to steal a march on The Economist with this foreboding article.