Here Comes Hurricane Ida

What are the chances that this storm intensifies to a category 5? Or are current projections fairly accurate?

a reply to: MDDoxs

I think they are.

Our local meteorologist worked down in Florida tracking hurricanes for a time, and he does a weather blog where he still geeks out over hurricanes like this. He's not thinking it will go above Cat 4 and he's usually pretty good when it comes to tracking these things and reading the data that's coming in.

Joe's Weather Blog

You will note that he doesn't think it will make it past Cat 4, if that, but at the same time, he notes that the potential is certainly there for very rapid strengthening in the Gulf, so he won't completely rule out something worse.

a reply to: ketsuko

This is true. Some hospitals are so desperate for help, an ICUI nurse can command upt to $145 per hour now. We may be on the brink of another kind of disaster here. It we're not already.

a reply to: MDDoxs

I believe it went from 80mph sustained winds when I posted this and it's at 100mph now.

a reply to: GravitySucks

No sympathy man, they build a city in a bowl that is below sea level and is dependent on levees and pumps to keep it dry on a good day. Then they get destroyed by a hurricane in the past and build back exactly the same as before. Same with people that live in the flood plain of the ohio river whos houses get destroyed and build it back in the same exact area.

a reply to: norhoc

True, but it’s darn hard to just pack up, move and start all over from scratch especially when you make minimum wage with a family of four. People forget that it’s not just the wind and rain, it’s the weeks without power, no stores open, no AC, no plumbing, no safe running water, etc…and the bugs!

Hurricanes suck.

a reply to: norhoc

The oldest parts of New Orleans aren't below sea level. The problem is that it grew from that small little town into something quite a bit larger.

originally posted by: GravitySucks
a reply to: MDDoxs

I believe it went from 80mph sustained winds when I posted this and it's at 100mph now.

Yep Confirmed as a cat 2 at 2pm today. No signs that it will weaken.

This looks bad for "the Big Easy" with lots of info/models/local alerts on Storm2k. That last shift put it in that northeast quadrant, it depends on if that holds.



www.storm2k.org...

a reply to: GravitySucks

It is currently strengthening forecast to strengthen until landfall. Last I saw the official forecast calls for 130mph winds at landfall tomorrow afternoon to evening.

Unfortunately the storm took a jog slightly beast of the forecast track which takes it closer to a direct hit on New Orleans.

Not a good scenario unfolding.

Latest update

Hurricane Ida strengthened into a dangerous Category 4 storm and was continuing to intensify as it neared Louisiana on Sunday morning, the National Hurricane Center said.

Sustained winds went from 130mph to at 140mph in the last hour.




[Link]

Sustained winds at 145mph.

ETA: This is 12mph away from a cat 5

Up to 150 mph now. Pressure is at 936mb, a 50mb drop in less than 24 hours. Very near cat 5 strength, however it appears the surface winds have not yet caught up to the pressure drop.

Praying Ida has peaked and the levees will hold.

a reply to: jrod

Just saw that as well. Doesn't seem like it's peaked, but there't time yet before it makes landfall this afternoon.

7am(CDT) update, pressure is down to 933mb winds are still 150mph.

Ida may have not peaked yet, furthermore the strongest winds may not have reached the surface, which is terrible timing as the surface winds peak will coincide with landfall.

The track will take it just west of New Orleans with the western suburbs likely see the eyewall. By that time the winds should weaken a bit as it will have several hours over land/marsh. Unfortunately marshland does not weaken hurricanes as quickly as dry land.

Obviously one of the major concerns is flooding. If the levees fail, this could be worse than Katrina because New Orleans will also have significantly higher winds that they experienced. Hospitals are already close to capacity with COVID, so a mass casualty event will most certainly put them over.

The National Guard should be ready for rescue and relief operations as soon as the weather clears, as well as the Cajun Navy.

Most if New Orleans was NOT under a mandatory evacuation. Hopefully those below sea level and other low lying areas have moved to higher ground.

This is a very sobering report:

twitter.com...

Texas Storm Chasers
@TxStormChasers
·
30m
642AM: Our chase team is abandoning/evacuating Larose, LA and heading north. This town is not survivable in a high-end Cat 4+ hurricane. Town is "sticks and tin" (wood and tin construction) and will be full of flying debris. Lots of folks did not evacuate and are still in town.

a reply to: jrod

I'm keeping up to date with this YouTube channel:



Storm chaser livestream:



Good luck to anybody out there..this thing is looking crazy

a reply to: jrod

Very sobering. This is terrible.

About an hours ago it was reported that waterspouts were already forming over the marshes too.

a reply to: keukendeur

Thanks.

NWS New Orleans Twitter is another good one.