Viral dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 variants in vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals

originally posted by: chr0naut

originally posted by: amazingexplorer

originally posted by: chr0naut

originally posted by: butcherguy

This fits entirely with the way a vaccine works

a reply to: chr0naut
Just curious, is this the way that the MMR vaccine works?

Do you see a lot of vaccinated kids coming down with the mumps and measles?

Yes.

Despite the vaccinations, people still occasionally got the infections, however the campaigns of vaccination were so comprehensive that they have now suppressed the growth in numbers of those infected.

But this hasn't entirely wiped out the pathogens. If people stop the vaccinations, then the diseases will eventually gain foothold again, and come back in epidemic numbers, just like they did prior to the vaccinations.

Measles, Mumps, and Rubella (MMR) Vaccination: What Everyone Should Know - CDC

Covid-19 follows the same seasonal patterns as other human coronaviruses. Decreasing from April to September, then increasing from October to March. Vaccine has negligible effect on number of cases.

Canada data

Why hasn't the opposite been observed in the Southern hemisphere? Why have the initial infection outbreaks followed a arithmetic progression from each outbreak, in every county of the world, and each reduction in new infection numbers (like from lockdowns, masks, and from vaccinations) coincided with reduction in new infection numbers?

Depends on what parts of southern hemisphere. South America, South Africa are of course very different than Australia. In Australia I suspect a large rhinovirus epidemic delayed covid surge.

Rhinovirus rampant or testing triumphant?

originally posted by: butcherguy

Edward Jenner and the history of smallpox and vaccination - NCBI

What do you expect happens to a pathogen after 200+ years of successful vaccination of its hosts?

But you started with this:

This fits entirely with the way a vaccine works.

Is it your stance that people that were vaccinated against smallpox got infected with smallpox and spread it to others?

Yes.

Did a portion of the vaccinated die of smallpox?

Yes.

Did the vaccinated require boosters to stay safe?

Yes.

They still do. Vaccination with variola only is effective for 3-5 years:

Vaccine Basics - CDC

Because that's the nature of these covid vaccines.

Yes.

originally posted by: chr0naut

originally posted by: butcherguy

Edward Jenner and the history of smallpox and vaccination - NCBI

What do you expect happens to a pathogen after 200+ years of successful vaccination of its hosts?

But you started with this:

This fits entirely with the way a vaccine works.

Is it your stance that people that were vaccinated against smallpox got infected with smallpox and spread it to others?

Yes.

Did a portion of the vaccinated die of smallpox?

Yes.

Did the vaccinated require boosters to stay safe?

Yes.

They still do. Vaccination with variola only is effective for 3-5 years:

Vaccine Basics - CDC

Because that's the nature of these covid vaccines.

Yes.

Smallpox vaccine is a live weakened form of smallpox. Vaccinating with vaccinia against variola is sort of like vaccinating with SARS Cov 2 against SARS Cov 1.

originally posted by: amazingexplorer

originally posted by: chr0naut

originally posted by: butcherguy

Edward Jenner and the history of smallpox and vaccination - NCBI

What do you expect happens to a pathogen after 200+ years of successful vaccination of its hosts?

But you started with this:

This fits entirely with the way a vaccine works.

Is it your stance that people that were vaccinated against smallpox got infected with smallpox and spread it to others?

Yes.

Did a portion of the vaccinated die of smallpox?

Yes.

Did the vaccinated require boosters to stay safe?

Yes.

They still do. Vaccination with variola only is effective for 3-5 years:

Vaccine Basics - CDC

Because that's the nature of these covid vaccines.

Yes.

Smallpox vaccine is a live weakened form of smallpox. Vaccinating with vaccinia against variola is sort of like vaccinating with SARS Cov 2 against SARS Cov 1.

No, and, no.

originally posted by: chr0naut

originally posted by: amazingexplorer

originally posted by: chr0naut

originally posted by: butcherguy

Edward Jenner and the history of smallpox and vaccination - NCBI

What do you expect happens to a pathogen after 200+ years of successful vaccination of its hosts?

But you started with this:

This fits entirely with the way a vaccine works.

Is it your stance that people that were vaccinated against smallpox got infected with smallpox and spread it to others?

Yes.

Did a portion of the vaccinated die of smallpox?

Yes.

Did the vaccinated require boosters to stay safe?

Yes.

They still do. Vaccination with variola only is effective for 3-5 years:

Vaccine Basics - CDC

Because that's the nature of these covid vaccines.

Yes.

Smallpox vaccine is a live weakened form of smallpox. Vaccinating with vaccinia against variola is sort of like vaccinating with SARS Cov 2 against SARS Cov 1.

No, and, no.

Considering SARS-Cov-1 had 10 percent death rate, SARS-Cov-2 has less than 0.5 percent death rate and falling, it is wise to vaccinate with SARS-Cov-2 against SARS-Cov-1 if you can. It is effective considering they are the same species. In contract, vaccinia and variola are different species, so vaccination is not as effective.

originally posted by: Allenb83
a reply to: dug88

-There are several limitations to the study, one being the sample obtained from a non-diverse group (90% male and almost all of the sample being obtained from relatively healthy individuals).

That's not actually a problem as this is the group most likely to be exposed because they're more likely to do things like commute longer distances and so come into contact with infracted people, and to ignore mask and social distancing advice.

a reply to: chr0naut
I have a smallpox vaccination.
Just one.
I had no boosters.
My children are not vaccinated for smallpox. Neither are any of their classmates.
Smallpox vaccination is no longer done for the general population…. So I suppose they are giving boosters to the unvaccinated?
Probably due to the fact that the inoculation was effective and those that were inoculated did not shed virus and spread the disease.
It was so effective that the disease was declared eradicated.

originally posted by: amazingexplorer

originally posted by: chr0naut

originally posted by: amazingexplorer

originally posted by: chr0naut

originally posted by: butcherguy

Edward Jenner and the history of smallpox and vaccination - NCBI

What do you expect happens to a pathogen after 200+ years of successful vaccination of its hosts?

But you started with this:

This fits entirely with the way a vaccine works.

Is it your stance that people that were vaccinated against smallpox got infected with smallpox and spread it to others?

Yes.

Did a portion of the vaccinated die of smallpox?

Yes.

Did the vaccinated require boosters to stay safe?

Yes.

They still do. Vaccination with variola only is effective for 3-5 years:

Vaccine Basics - CDC

Because that's the nature of these covid vaccines.

Yes.

Smallpox vaccine is a live weakened form of smallpox. Vaccinating with vaccinia against variola is sort of like vaccinating with SARS Cov 2 against SARS Cov 1.

No, and, no.

Considering SARS-Cov-1 had 10 percent death rate, SARS-Cov-2 has less than 0.5 percent death rate and falling,

The death rate (known as the Case Fatality Ratio) of a disease is calculated by dividing the number of deaths by the total number of cases, and this ratio is then presented as a percentage value.

The world average CFR for SARS-CoV-1 (SARS) is 15%, but it varies significantly by several factors.

Consensus document on the epidemiology of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) - WHO

For COVID-19, calculated from all available international data, the CFR is currently 2.081%, and for the United States, is currently 1.645%.

Please provide validation that supports the idea that the CFR for COVID-19 is as low as 0.5%. Until you do, I will assume that the ratio you provided is yet another baselessly guessed at round figure, and therefore is incorrect.

it is wise to vaccinate with SARS-Cov-2 against SARS-Cov-1 if you can. It is effective considering they are the same species.

SARS, MERS and SARS-Cov-2 are in the same taxonomic family as each other, but are different species.

Have you noticed that no-one is suggesting that SARS-CoV-2 originated in SARS or MERS and that they are suggesting its origin is in a bat virus? That is because the relationship of SARS, MERS, and SARS-CoV-2 is distant.

The Taxonomic hierarchy is as follows: Kingdom, Phylum, Class, Order, Family, Genus, and Species.

To give you some idea, in more conversationally understood terms, Gibbons and Humans are different Species, but in the same Family (Hominidae).

SARS-CoV-2, SARS-CoV, and MERS-COV: A comparative overview

In contract, vaccinia and variola are different species, so vaccination is not as effective.

Variola has been an effective vaccination against Smallpox because it has similar biological properties that trigger the same immune response for both species.

Even chemical toxins like those produced when people have a particular disease, can be used as vaccinations (called subunit vaccines) against that disease, because it all comes down to the immune response they trigger.

Types of vaccines - The Immunization Advisory Centre

originally posted by: butcherguy
a reply to: chr0naut
I have a smallpox vaccination.
Just one.
I had no boosters.
My children are not vaccinated for smallpox. Neither are any of their classmates.
Smallpox vaccination is no longer done for the general population…. So I suppose they are giving boosters to the unvaccinated?
Probably due to the fact that the inoculation was effective and those that were inoculated did not shed virus and spread the disease.
It was so effective that the disease was declared eradicated.

If you had read the "Vaccine Basics" link I posted, you would see that vaccinations for smallpox in the US were discontinued in 1972 after the disease was eradicated in the United States. This might explain why you did not receive any boosters and your children are un-vaccinated against smallpox.

originally posted by: chr0naut

originally posted by: amazingexplorer

originally posted by: chr0naut

originally posted by: amazingexplorer

originally posted by: chr0naut

originally posted by: butcherguy

Edward Jenner and the history of smallpox and vaccination - NCBI

What do you expect happens to a pathogen after 200+ years of successful vaccination of its hosts?

But you started with this:

This fits entirely with the way a vaccine works.

Is it your stance that people that were vaccinated against smallpox got infected with smallpox and spread it to others?

Yes.

Did a portion of the vaccinated die of smallpox?

Yes.

Did the vaccinated require boosters to stay safe?

Yes.

They still do. Vaccination with variola only is effective for 3-5 years:

Vaccine Basics - CDC

Because that's the nature of these covid vaccines.

Yes.

Smallpox vaccine is a live weakened form of smallpox. Vaccinating with vaccinia against variola is sort of like vaccinating with SARS Cov 2 against SARS Cov 1.

No, and, no.

Considering SARS-Cov-1 had 10 percent death rate, SARS-Cov-2 has less than 0.5 percent death rate and falling,

The death rate (known as the Case Fatality Ratio) of a disease is calculated by dividing the number of deaths by the total number of cases, and this ratio is then presented as a percentage value.

The world average CFR for SARS-CoV-1 (SARS) is 15%, but it varies significantly by several factors.

Consensus document on the epidemiology of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) - WHO

For COVID-19, calculated from all available international data, the CFR is currently 2.081%, and for the United States, is currently 1.645%.

Please provide validation that supports the idea that the CFR for COVID-19 is as low as 0.5%. Until you do, I will assume that the ratio you provided is yet another baselessly guessed at round figure, and therefore is incorrect.

it is wise to vaccinate with SARS-Cov-2 against SARS-Cov-1 if you can. It is effective considering they are the same species.

SARS, MERS and SARS-Cov-2 are in the same taxonomic family as each other, but are different species.

Have you noticed that no-one is suggesting that SARS-CoV-2 originated in SARS or MERS and that they are suggesting its origin is in a bat virus? That is because the relationship of SARS, MERS, and SARS-CoV-2 is distant.

The Taxonomic hierarchy is as follows: Kingdom, Phylum, Class, Order, Family, Genus, and Species.

To give you some idea, in more conversationally understood terms, Gibbons and Humans are different Species, but in the same Family (Hominidae).

SARS-CoV-2, SARS-CoV, and MERS-COV: A comparative overview

In contract, vaccinia and variola are different species, so vaccination is not as effective.

Variola has been an effective vaccination against Smallpox because it has similar biological properties that trigger the same immune response for both species.

Even chemical toxins like those produced when people have a particular disease, can be used as vaccinations (called subunit vaccines) against that disease, because it all comes down to the immune response they trigger.

Types of vaccines - The Immunization Advisory Centre

Without a vaccine, smallpox would have been eradicated within years anyway considering how obvious the symptoms were. SARS Cov 1 was eradicated within a year without a vaccine considering how obvious the symptoms were.

As for the death rate of SARS Cov 2, I did a detailed calculation here, most recent post in this thread, if only you even bothered to read it.

thread

originally posted by: carewemust
From a high-level perspective, Covid hospitalizations have been greater in number, as Covid vaccinations proliferate society.

Compare 2020 vs 2021 Covid-19 hospitalizations at: gis.cdc.gov...

That shouldn't be happening, now that 2 out of every 3 Americans are vaccinated!

WTH?

That is the littler dirty thing that the big pharma does not want people to put together, how the proliferation of covid started in full gear when the jabs started.

But very rapidly the "delta variant" was invented to cover up what was soo obvious.

Let that stew a bit in some people's minds, because they are slow but they will eventually add two and two.

a reply to: AaarghZombies

It actually is a problem because when you perform a study like this it should be as close as possible to the represented population. Because they travel a lot, it's not an accurate representation for those that don't travel a lot for work. I don't have statistics for the number of people that travel as much as the NBA, but my guess is that it's not representative of the population as a whole.
The study did not mention mask wearing as a variable either.
When its said the study obtained information from relatively healthy individuals, it was considered a LIMITATION to the study findings, and not a strength. Specifically because this world is not full of healthy individuals, some of them athletes that are in excellent physical conditioning.
A better study would represent a more diverse population sample.
It brings me back to my original point. With any study we see about the Covid vaccines and their effectiveness, there are confounding variables that raise a lot of questions as to the efficacy of the study. This is mostly due to haste. Most professionally well written studies take many years of data gathering and research. We have only had a year or two of this virus to work with, so anyone who says they have it all figured out is probably lying.

originally posted by: amazingexplorer

originally posted by: chr0naut

originally posted by: amazingexplorer

originally posted by: chr0naut

originally posted by: amazingexplorer

originally posted by: chr0naut

originally posted by: butcherguy

Edward Jenner and the history of smallpox and vaccination - NCBI

What do you expect happens to a pathogen after 200+ years of successful vaccination of its hosts?

But you started with this:

This fits entirely with the way a vaccine works.

Is it your stance that people that were vaccinated against smallpox got infected with smallpox and spread it to others?

Yes.

Did a portion of the vaccinated die of smallpox?

Yes.

Did the vaccinated require boosters to stay safe?

Yes.

They still do. Vaccination with variola only is effective for 3-5 years:

Vaccine Basics - CDC

Because that's the nature of these covid vaccines.

Yes.

Smallpox vaccine is a live weakened form of smallpox. Vaccinating with vaccinia against variola is sort of like vaccinating with SARS Cov 2 against SARS Cov 1.

No, and, no.

Considering SARS-Cov-1 had 10 percent death rate, SARS-Cov-2 has less than 0.5 percent death rate and falling,

The death rate (known as the Case Fatality Ratio) of a disease is calculated by dividing the number of deaths by the total number of cases, and this ratio is then presented as a percentage value.

The world average CFR for SARS-CoV-1 (SARS) is 15%, but it varies significantly by several factors.

Consensus document on the epidemiology of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) - WHO

For COVID-19, calculated from all available international data, the CFR is currently 2.081%, and for the United States, is currently 1.645%.

Please provide validation that supports the idea that the CFR for COVID-19 is as low as 0.5%. Until you do, I will assume that the ratio you provided is yet another baselessly guessed at round figure, and therefore is incorrect.

it is wise to vaccinate with SARS-Cov-2 against SARS-Cov-1 if you can. It is effective considering they are the same species.

SARS, MERS and SARS-Cov-2 are in the same taxonomic family as each other, but are different species.

Have you noticed that no-one is suggesting that SARS-CoV-2 originated in SARS or MERS and that they are suggesting its origin is in a bat virus? That is because the relationship of SARS, MERS, and SARS-CoV-2 is distant.

The Taxonomic hierarchy is as follows: Kingdom, Phylum, Class, Order, Family, Genus, and Species.

To give you some idea, in more conversationally understood terms, Gibbons and Humans are different Species, but in the same Family (Hominidae).

SARS-CoV-2, SARS-CoV, and MERS-COV: A comparative overview

In contract, vaccinia and variola are different species, so vaccination is not as effective.

Variola has been an effective vaccination against Smallpox because it has similar biological properties that trigger the same immune response for both species.

Even chemical toxins like those produced when people have a particular disease, can be used as vaccinations (called subunit vaccines) against that disease, because it all comes down to the immune response they trigger.

Types of vaccines - The Immunization Advisory Centre

Without a vaccine, smallpox would have been eradicated within years anyway

Smallpox scarring has been found on Egyptian mummies dated about 300 BC.

If it hasn't burned itself out over several thousands of years, what would be your reasoning that you assume it's just going to go away?

considering how obvious the symptoms were. SARS Cov 1 was eradicated within a year without a vaccine considering how obvious the symptoms were.

SARS and MERS were less infectious and also killed more of their hosts. So as epidemic spreaders, they were far less efficient.

Perhaps the major factor in the difference in the epidemic spread, though, was the inaction based on political ideology of those who should have instead organized a response, instead of ignoring it, and saying "it would just go away".

As for the death rate of SARS Cov 2, I did a detailed calculation here, most recent post in this thread, if only you even bothered to read it.

thread

Yes, but you used daily numbers, in almost the same day they were supposed to have occurred!

Since the recording and processing of the data can easily take up to a week (as is mentioned on numerous dats compilation sites), it is invalid to assume that those figures truly represent the actual situation.

This can be seen by the way the ratio changes when calculated over a longer period, or by the data taken from a single day in the past, now that all the data has had time to have been collected, compiled and presented.

I took, for an example, a point on the US graph showing weekly deaths from COVID-19 at a close to median value. This date was for the week of 8th of March 2021, where there were 11,871 deaths in the week. In the same week, there were 416,193 new weekly cases. This was a CFR of 2.852% (Note that I picked a median point on the graph of weekly deaths and it is representative of the average between the peak of 18 January, and the trough of 12 July).

I took my data from the Johns Hopkins COVID-19 dashboard map.

Also, it is worth noting that the vaccine was beginning to show effect on the numbers, in both your time-frame and mine, and do not represent the CFR of just the disease alone.