US Wheat Crop is in Trouble

gizmodo.com...

The entire state of Oregon and Idaho are in drought as is much of Washington, including the eastern part of the state where wheat largely grows. Farmers are scrambling to handle the one-two punch of drought and a searing heatwave.

“The general mood among farmers in my area is as dire as I’ve ever seen it,” farmer Cordell Kress, who farms wheat and canola in Idaho, told Reuters. “Something about a drought like this just wears on you. You see your blood, sweat, and tears just slowly wither away and die.”

The damage to the Northwest wheat crop isn’t just a concern to farmers, but anyone who likes cakes, pastries, biscuits, ramen noodles, and a lot of other delicate, tasty stuff. The varieties of wheat hit hard by the drought and the heat in those states are what are known as soft white, and it’s the only place in the U.S. that grows this kind of wheat. Soft white wheat is good for pastries and the like because of its low protein content, which makes it less stretchy than traditional flour. But wheat kernels in the Pacific Northwest are shriveling due to the heat and the drought, upping their protein content—and meaning that a lot of the crop that will be harvested won’t be suitable for the soft wheat market.

this represents a significant part of US wheat production.
even if there is 'enough' there will probly be price increases.
I wonder if this means poor countries will not get any.

No. It's not ideal because it's turkey red winter wheat, but there is plenty of wheat in the midwest.

a reply to: ElGoobero

I wonder if this means poor countries will not get any.

Pretty sure "cakes, pastries, biscuits, ramen noodles, and a lot of other delicate, tasty stuff" are not third world issues.

for anyone worrying about flour flying off the shelves, you can rest easy. “For the consumer, at the end of the day, they might not even notice it,”

originally posted by: myselfaswell
a reply to: ElGoobero

I wonder if this means poor countries will not get any.

Pretty sure "cakes, pastries, biscuits, ramen noodles, and a lot of other delicate, tasty stuff" are not third world issues.

for anyone worrying about flour flying off the shelves, you can rest easy. “For the consumer, at the end of the day, they might not even notice it,”

You forgot beer, bread and animal food on that list.

World trade in wheat is greater than for all other crops combined and it is considered a worldwide staple food.

But I guess we can all go to maize....

originally posted by: ketsuko
No. It's not ideal because it's turkey red winter wheat, but there is plenty of wheat in the midwest.

Technically most of the wheat grown in the states mentioned (Oregon, Idaho, Washington) is the vast majority of the soft white wheat grown in the US.

2 of the biggest 3 producers of wheat in the USA (North Dakota, Montana) are in the middle of a hot weather cycle that hasn't happened since 1910.

We are producing roughly 1/2 of what we are used to producing of the hard red (spring and winter) and durum.

So it's not just soft white wheat that is in trouble this year.

a reply to: Lumenari

No, I know, but the US produces so much wheat over a large enough area that unless the entire region gets hit, one part of it being scuttled can be compensated for by the rest.

Usually, it's the lower parts of the wheat growing region that get hit by this kind of weather, but not this time.

a reply to: ketsuko

Of the five largest producers in the US, four of those states are getting hammered this year... an almost nonexistent winter so no snow pack and now no rain and a never-ending heat wave.

US States Wheat Production

Maybe Kansas can make up for it?

Dunno... it's just a bad year for everything all around.

a reply to: Lumenari

All I know is the custom crews go from Texas all the way up into Canada chasing the harvest every year.

There's always some area having troubles with weather.

a reply to: Lumenari

You forgot beer

Sh!t, that does actually make it a crisis, dagnabit.

Wheat is only part of the equation and then only the first part.

The Lake Mead water situation pretty much says all that desert magically terraformed to farmland by irrigation is gonna be on baby sips next year. Say goodbye to oh just about everything grown in California because they are way overpopulated for the water and electricity they consume. Arizona and Nevada are gonna be dry too. Utah doesn’t look so watery either.

Good thing we have quality leadership to figure this out.

originally posted by: ketsuko
a reply to: Lumenari

All I know is the custom crews go from Texas all the way up into Canada chasing the harvest every year.

There's always some area having troubles with weather.

98% of spring wheat crops in the USA are currently in an area that is suffering drought.

AG Web article

As for Canada, they shifted a lot of production from wheat to canola this year... and are getting hammered.

It's the same story in Canada. Stephen Vandervalk, a grain and oilseeds farmer near Calgary said in an interview with CBC News that this year's crop is "looking like the worst crop in history."

"Southwest of Calgary there's essentially nowhere with nice crops," he said. "Some areas there's going to be nothing."

The situation with canola looks even worse, he said, because it's coming on the heels of what was in retrospect one of the best years ever for the crop.

Canola dislikes hot and dry weather almost as much as spring wheat does, which is why Vandervalk thinks this year's harvest will be a "wreck."

Linkiepoo

There is nothing to chase north this season.

~shrug~

a reply to: Ahabstar

That's a big one. That and the dependence on dams for power generation. Howya like your windmills now that your hydroelectric won't work?

I find it real hard to take anything the radicals at gizmodo say seriously. That site hasn't been anything more than a racist, climate alarmist, socialist mouthpiece in years.

a reply to: Lumenari

I'm not saying it's not a problem, but I am saying that most times, the part of the crop that gets wrecked is the southern half. This year, they've been cutting like crazy.

a reply to: ketsuko

Windmills are still NIMBY for the East and West Coasters. Although I did see some going into Cali on I-10 back in 205-2006. Near Coachella maybe?

originally posted by: AdmireTheDistance
I find it real hard to take anything the radicals at gizmodo say seriously. That site hasn't been anything more than a racist, climate alarmist, socialist mouthpiece in years.

They were quoting the USDA and I just linked their article.

All I know is that locally here in Western Montana, hay crops alone are down 50% by yield from last year.

A 2 ton bale last year was $85. Now one is $155.

This has a lot more ramifications than just wheat because it is affecting animal feed, which in turn effects beef prices...

And it also bothers me that the last weather cycle like this here was in 1910.

The year that 3 million acres here, in Idaho and British Columbia burnt down.

In two days.

WikiLinkie

I have a little under 400 acres that at one point had a town on it until 1910.

It vanished then, although the stones of some of the structures are still here.

I also this year am attempting to grow an acre of wheat, with the help of my neighbor that does it for a living.

I picked the wrong year to try it.

a reply to: ElGoobero

See, you have forewarning. Go stockpile now while it is cheap and available.

I think we will weather this poor crop fairly well. Three years ago the elevators were so full of unsold wheat that year's crop was either piled on the ground under tarps or blown into long plastic tubing. Then the tariff war cut our export of grain roughly in half (at least that part shipped to the coast by rail). Since the tariffs were settled, most of the piles have now been shipped, but the last time I talked with an elevator operator in north central Montana the silos were still full pretty much to the brim. That should provide at least 1 1/2 to 2 years of grain supply.

Now, does that mean there won't be a price spike? No it does not. The grain co-ops have learned from the oil and gas industry and can milk a manufactured crisis like you wouldn't believe.

You might want to buy a few bags next time you go the the store.

a reply to: ElGoobero

If they'd clip the power to the HAARP installations all over the world and let the climate go normal, this crap wouldn't be happening. Weather warfare is illegal last time I checked.

Cheers - Dave

I usually stock about a sixty pounds of organic flour. I should boost my reserves, it disappears off the shelves during a shortage. I like the Dakota made organic white flour, it is a albino type of whole wheat without the whole wheat taste.

We make most of our bread so we go through about ten pounds a month. I give rolls to my daughters and the doe loves homemade fresh rolls...she has two little fawns and comes for breakfast, and supper and sleeps in the woods next to our back yard lots of times. Like a typical woman she also loves an occasional cookie or cinnamon roll or homemade freezer jam on the rolls.

No, I don't spoil my neighbors.