A dwarf planet coming within 11 AU of the sun over the next 10 years

Found this and it seemed ATS worthy. A dwarf planet was discovered relatively recently with a very strange orbit. It's orbit ranges from ~39,400 AU at the peak of its incoming orbit and ~54,600 at the peak of its outgoing orbit, but within the next 10 years it will be within 11 AU of the sun, putting it somewhere between Saturn and Uranus.

Rest assured, its orbit will not bring it within range of Earth, but should reach at least a magnitude 13 in brightness for any of you astronomers on ATS.

groups.io...

This new object, 2014 UN271, is not just unusual, but radically exceptional among all known bodies in the Solar System to date. Discovered about 29 AU out from the Sun and currently around 22 away, its orbit takes it from just beyond the orbit of Saturn (10.9 AU) all the way out to the Oort Cloud - no, not the Hill Cloud. the Oort Cloud. The incoming barycentric aphelion was 39,400 +/- 1200 AU, and outgoing it will be an even huger 54,600 +/- 2300 AU (!!)

Based on the given absolute magnitude, and given how exceptionally red it looked in 2014 precovery images from CFHT (the g - r color was 0.9, and r - i was 0.5!) I would estimate at an albedo of 0.01-0.08 a diameter of 130-370 kilometers (nominally 160) which puts it on a similar scale, if not larger than, Sarabat's huge comet C/1729 P1, and almost undoubtedly the largest Oort Cloud object ever discovered- almost in dwarf planet territory!

I have little doubt in my mind that as this gets closer to the Sun, it will begin displaying the coma and tail typical of every other object yet seen in its orbit. It almost feels premature to ascribe any sort of theoretical slope to it with how little precedent there is for objects like this, but if Hale-Bopp is any indication with its slope of 20 at large distances, then 2014 UN271 could possibly reach magnitude 13 in early 2031 - but I wouldn't count on much brighter than 16 or 17 just yet. Either way, that's impressively bright, and this object should make an exceptional target of study in the next couple of decades to accompany how exceptional an object it looks to be.

I tried to covert that to miles, my calculator doesn’t go that big. Only Congress understands numbers like that.

I'm changing the name of it to.....

Nib-u-ru

a reply to: dug88

Ok, not too close from Earth but what about Saturn ?

What's the size of the object ? 130-370 kilometers ??

All these sound so Asimov to me. Remember :

“The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that ‘my ignorance is just as good as your knowledge.’” ― Isaac Asimov

This object will exponentially increase that concept as it comes closer.

Idiots fear light - Trueman.

hope I can manage to catch that, that will go on my list like seeing halleys comet.

Its funny as a kid I loved the stars and always went out for meteor showers, and big events... then lost track for years and years only to rediscover it with neowise and then stumbling across astronomy binoculars.

Now every clear night I have time I am running to a farmers field to watch whatever I can find.

a reply to: dug88

Will we be able to see dwarfs as it goes by?

a reply to: Nickn3

1 AU is approximately 96 million miles so...96 million x 11....Basically a lot of zeros...a lot.

a reply to: Trueman

It's pretty close to Saturn, about 2 Au or so, twice the distance of earth to the sun. I dunno what would happen if it hit Saturn, Saturn would swallow it whole? Saturn's gigantic, it's made of dense gasses, i imagine the dwarf planet would vanish into it's depths and be crushed by Saturn's gravity.

a reply to: dug88

Magnitude 13 means you won’t see it.

The scale goes into minus, for example Venus has a magnitude range of −4.92 to −2.98

The moon is -13.

a reply to: dug88

is it too soon to call it planet X ?

a reply to: Chadwickus

No but it should be visible through telescope.

originally posted by: Randyvine2
a reply to: dug88

Will we be able to see dwarfs as it goes by?

Hopefully they will send a landing party. 🙌

the math for AU has always made my head hurt, With my astronomy binoculars I can see the nebula in orions belt, rings of saturn, and can see the moons of jupiter.

will this be findable or am I out of luck?

a reply to: Irishhaf

This link I posted in the comment above should explain.

originally posted by: baddmove
I'm changing the name of it to.....

Nib-u-ru

It's a dwarf planet.
Not a dwarf star.

a reply to: Chadwickus

It almost feels premature to ascribe any sort
of theoretical slope to it with how little precedent there is for
objects like this, but if Hale-Bopp is any indication with its slope
of 20 at large distances, then 2014 UN271 could possibly reach
magnitude 13 in early 2031 - but I wouldn't count on much brighter
than 16 or 17 just yet. Either way, that's impressively bright, and
this object should make an exceptional target of study in the next
couple of decades to accompany how exceptional an object it looks to
be.

There is no mention of visibility with the naked eye.

It's just a cool rock in space that is unusual.

You just seem to want to sh!t on it. I will DM Elon, try and book you a seat.

originally posted by: Irishhaf
the math for AU has always made my head hurt, With my astronomy binoculars I can see the nebula in orions belt, rings of saturn, and can see the moons of jupiter.

will this be findable or am I out of luck?

`366,000,000 miles .
I think
I just woke up , and have not had my coffee yet .

originally posted by: Gothmog

originally posted by: Irishhaf
the math for AU has always made my head hurt, With my astronomy binoculars I can see the nebula in orions belt, rings of saturn, and can see the moons of jupiter.

will this be findable or am I out of luck?

`366,000,000 miles .
I think
I just woke up , and have not had my coffee yet .

365 million miles later:
Press "J" to disengage.

originally posted by: subfab
a reply to: dug88

is it too soon to call it planet X ?

They don't name dwarf planets planets anymore after what's his name took away Pluto's status.
(Yes , I know the name)

originally posted by: Gothmog

originally posted by: subfab
a reply to: dug88

is it too soon to call it planet X ?

They don't name dwarf planets planets anymore after what's his name took away Pluto's status.
(Yes , I know the name)

The boxer who became a scientist! 😲

originally posted by: Wide-Eyes

originally posted by: Gothmog

originally posted by: subfab
a reply to: dug88

is it too soon to call it planet X ?

They don't name dwarf planets planets anymore after what's his name took away Pluto's status.
(Yes , I know the name)

The boxer who became a scientist! 😲

But it only took a plumber to refute Hawking .