Progress on China's Third, Larger Aircraft Carrier

China has a very aggressive naval expansion program. This has seen the People's Liberation Army Navy grow to a size even larger than the US Navy (albeit with most ships being less capable). Two of the areas China has been focusing on have been its Gator Fleet (amphibious warfare, aka the PLAN Marines) and addition of aircraft carriers. The latter has seen 7+ LPD and 3 LHD ships comparable to what the USMC has and able to move over 10k Chinese marines in a single lift...and the chinese aren't yet done. The aircraft carrier program has been moving at a pace faster than anywhere other than the US.

The Chinese bought the Varyag from Ukraine in the 90s and have refitted her as the Liaoning. She has been commissioned and conducts regular patrols. The Chinese then built an upgraded copy of the Liaoning, named her the Shandong, and have commissioned her as well. She, too, is now conducting patrols. Both of them are of the same class - more or less - as the Russian Kuznetsov carrier, but with far more reliable systems. Both use ski jumps rather than catapults, being STOBAR carriers, and use a local variant of the Su-27 designated the J-15. Despite their size, the two operational carriers are only carry around 40 aircraft in total max and have not been seen with that on deployment as yet.

The Chinese are not stopping there. They have a third carrier being built now. This is expected to be roughly the size of the USS Kitty Hawk and her sisters. She appears to have been confirmed as a CATOBAR aircraft carrier: using catapults instead of a ski jump. The catapults are EMALS rather than steam catapults. Her progress has been very rapid and recent pictures, below, show where they are. It is expected the ship will be launched in the beginning of next year. She seems to be conventionally powered instead of nuclear. At least one sister ship is expected to be built before moving onto the next class, but it has been speculated the Chinese will crank these carriers out at first until they are comfortable with the CVN design they are working on.







And, finally, what folks expect the third CV to be laid out compared to the sat photo from above:



The Chinese have stated they want as much as 10 aircraft carriers and up to 8 LHD. The Chinese are working on a 5th gen aircraft for their flat tops, the J-XY, but little is known of it. It is believed to be derived from the Shenyang FC-31/J-31. Contracts were signed, but no air frames have been seen as yet. Even so, unlike the Russians, the Chinese follow through with their plans and they do so pretty quickly: the Chinese cranked out the first three LHDs in 3 years with more planned.

While the PLAN isn't /yet/ up to the standards of the US Navy, they're closing ridiculously fast due to poor decisions by the USN (LCS, frex) and incredible conservatism in its outlook for ship design and operations. It has been further hampered by oh-so-many folks being stuck in the 1980s and the US being far ahead of their enemies in technology. That advantage has eroded greatly and China will catch up unless something is done. Complacency has destroyed empires and republics before.

With the rate the Chinese are improving their fleet, we could see a Chinese carrier cruising off the west coast of the US by the end of the decade.

a reply to: anzha

No doubt it will be a clone of a US aircraft carrier made likely based on stolen blueprints there hackers were able to obtain along with some Russian expertise and ideas thrown in as well.

Be funny when they have to figure out the teething troubles.

thanks for posting

I doubt these ships will be all that effective. China's tech reputation is poor and rush jobs usually mean shortcuts and defects somewhere.
but, put enough missiles in the air and some of them will hit the targets.

will be interesting to see them try to occupy some of those islands. I don't think anyone has tried a beach invasion since Inchon?

a reply to: ElGoobero

That said Aircraft carriers are really just a political tool for use as a show of force and arguably missile and drone carrying frigates are the real future of naval air warfare but there will always be a use for an aircraft carrier for moving personnel etc.

Still in reality they are dinosaurs from an age that is rapidly passing and will only be upgradable so far after which drone type subs and destroyers have the future.

Imagine a fleet of deeper diving, stealthy, ICBM and missile launch capable drone submarines, say four hundred or so unmanned craft playing cat and mouse diving deeper than most manned subs and hiding in the ocean floor topography waiting and watching.

China will not know what hit them, imagine parts manufacturers making part and sending to another location to be assembled, the Chinese and Russians not realizing half of these parts were useless and those that were not were still to be finished so that the final craft was manufactured under the tightest secrecy by the most thoroughly security screened well paid patriotic staff whom officially worked in clerical jobs but actually went down in an elevator to the factory under there sea side office block with it's hidden subterranean submarine facility's and launch and construction capability's, imagine several of these sites.

No China does not know what will hit them if push comes to shove.

a reply to: LABTECH767

Where have I heard this scenario before, overconfidence the enemy is weak and you are superior and unbeatable
That’s right, history
China won’t operate on its own

originally posted by: ElGoobero
thanks for posting

I doubt these ships will be all that effective. China's tech reputation is poor and rush jobs usually mean shortcuts and defects somewhere.
but, put enough missiles in the air and some of them will hit the targets.

will be interesting to see them try to occupy some of those islands. I don't think anyone has tried a beach invasion since Inchon?

I agree, they do not have the experience...will be crappy planes with constant low fuel due to limited weight, and it is going to be fun watching them do carrier landings.

originally posted by: Raggedyman

Where have I heard this scenario before, overconfidence the enemy is weak and you are superior and unbeatable
That’s right, history
China won’t operate on its own

We can say their carriers suck while not suggesting they are a walk in the park during war. China is the second strongest military in the world, nothing to sneer at.

How big? Makes a nice big target. A single strategically placed cruise and it's good bye Vienna.
So having the biggest dick on the block don't cut it.

originally posted by: crayzeed
How big? Makes a nice big target. A single strategically placed cruise and it's good bye Vienna.
So having the biggest dick on the block don't cut it.

No but having many useful dicks does. Saturate a defense system with offenses even if not all that high tech the numbers will make up for the short comings as something will get through to cause mayhem and destruction.

With China's missile tech and the number of sea faring boats and ships (Yep even fishing boats) I for one hope a real shooting war never happens.

Unfortunately with the present mindset in the South China sea I would not bet on peace being supreme..

They are saying they will upgrade the J-20 for carrier duty. youtu.be...

Did they get this one from the Russian scrapyard too ?

1. The Liaoning wasn't bought from a Russian scrap yard. She was bought from the Ukrainian shipyard where she sat for over a decade.

2. The Liaoning has been operational for almost a decade! The Shandong has been operating for two years. The PLAN has some nontrivial experience with carriers now. There will always be teething issues with new classes of ships and the transition from STOBAR to CATOBAR will also be a big hump. However, asserting the Chinese are inexperienced with carriers is disingenuous at best.

3. Chinese don't just make cheap crap. The stuff they sell to us? On the cheap side: we demand the cheapest cost, so we get the cheapest quality. You get what you pay for.

You guys are hilarious.

Arnie, if you read this, the thread is exactly why I put my 'rant' in when posting about China. XD

a reply to: Xtrozero

Their carrier pilots are nothing to laugh at. They've been performing carrier ops for years now. They might not have the doctrine, or experience of others, but they're progressing nicely. A STOBAR carrier works well for many countries, including the US.

originally posted by: Zaphod58

Their carrier pilots are nothing to laugh at. They've been performing carrier ops for years now. They might not have the doctrine, or experience of others, but they're progressing nicely. A STOBAR carrier works well for many countries, including the US.

Their carrier planes are not very good though...

a reply to: Xtrozero

Their carrier planes are not very good though...

For how long tho?

Just spotted by observers in china.



Their 5th gen for the carrier decks is on the 'land carrier' where the Chinese check out all the clerances and whatnot.

We will see it fly sometime in the next 36 months, I'd say based on past observations.

News link found after I posted the pic:

www.navalnews.com...

originally posted by: Xtrozero

originally posted by: Zaphod58

Their carrier pilots are nothing to laugh at. They've been performing carrier ops for years now. They might not have the doctrine, or experience of others, but they're progressing nicely. A STOBAR carrier works well for many countries, including the US.

Their carrier planes are not very good though...

I dont know about that Shenyang J-15 is a good match for the f 18 super hornet. Its a solid 4th gen fighter and would outmatch anything their neighbors have. They just dont have alot of them yet.

a reply to: ElGoobero


Aircraft Carriers are Todays Old Battleships of Yesteryear . OBSOLETE Without Air Cover 24/7 , and a Support Fleet Surrounding them . China's Thinking Today is SO 1980's ..................LOL

a reply to: Zanti Misfit

It's so obsolete that everyone with a significant navy is building them or has at least one in their fleet.

Since "they copy everything we build", all we have to do is introduce some flaws into our design, wait for them to copy it and then we correct it! Problem solved, race over

Orbital. That’s where I would spend my taxpayer dollars.

originally posted by: Zanti Misfit
a reply to: ElGoobero


Aircraft Carriers are Todays Old Battleships of Yesteryear . OBSOLETE Without Air Cover 24/7 , and a Support Fleet Surrounding them . China's Thinking Today is SO 1980's ..................LOL

I have never understood how people believe air craft carriers cant defend themselves. It is hard to find anything in millions of square miles of open ocean, and in the case of U.S. carriers will be moving constantly.Nuclear power makes that possible. U.S. carriers essentially have unlimited range. So even finding the carrier would be dumb luck but lets say they did. By the time they atempted to attack it it will be gone. But lets say they set a trap and happen to get the equipment needed there in time. First they would have to penetrate the carrier’s multi-layered defenses to reach the target.

That is only the first step in the kill chain tracking is difficult i know everyone thinks today sateelites watch everything problem is to get an acurate track missiles could use the satellite needs to be in low earths orbit. At that elevation they are traveling at a rate of roughly 16,000 miles per hour—which means they quickly disappear over the horizon, not to return for more than an hour. No Chinese aircraft is likely to get close enough to a carrier to establish a sustained target track. this is the protected zone around the carrier. So any attack will be long range and the longer the range of an anti-ship missile, the more updates it needs in flight to successfully engage a moving target. So without timely off-board sensor data and an agile command and control system, the weapon will be largely useless. Getting a balistic missile strike on a carrier group would be about the odds of winning the lottery. But heres the fun part a carrier can launch aircraft that can do lots of damage.

Carriers are far from useless and anyone that thinks they are is a fool.