Johns Hopkins: U.S. Death Rate Remains NORMAL Despite COVID-19

a reply to: Salander

The point is that scientists and physicians who dissent from a predetermined narrative are quickly censored.

Bad science should be rejected. Good science can stand up to criticism. That's how science is supposed to work.

Let's say someone, someday, finds a way to show that General Relativity is wrong. That's way against the "narrative." But people have been trying to do that for a long time. Yes, so far they have been "censored", if you will, because their work is flawed. But if it is ever achieved, why, that person would be the next Einstein.

Science, good science, is hard. It's supposed to be.

a reply to: putnam6

Yeah, because you believe this article, therefore anyone arguing it is wrong. It is on the wayback machine for a reason.

Just funny it's still going around.

Link

originally posted by: Phage
a reply to: Thejaybird

Your initial post in this thread is about how we cannot trust statistical measures, and then you proceeded to post statistic after statistic.

You are mistaken. Here is my initial post. I said nothing about not trusting statistical measures. I said that the source used is not valid for the purpose it was used for. Especially when, as it turns out, that data specifically excludes COVID data.

originally posted by: Phage
Mortality data comes from death certificates. Compilation of that data takes time. Attempting to project annual from data available in November is nonsensical especially when there is more current data available.

During January–December 2020, the estimated 2020 age-adjusted death rate increased for the first time since 2017, with an increase of 15.9% compared with 2019, from 715.2 to 828.7 deaths per 100,000 population. COVID-19 was the underlying or a contributing cause of 377,883 deaths (91.5 deaths per 100,000). COVID-19 death rates were highest among males, older adults, and AI/AN and Hispanic persons. The highest numbers of overall deaths and COVID-19 deaths occurred during April and December. COVID-19 was the third leading underlying cause of death in 2020, replacing suicide as one of the top 10 leading causes of death (6).

www.cdc.gov...

www.abovetopsecret.com...

I read what you wrote.

Which is the same thing as writing that statistics cannot be trusted, but then you continued to post statistics to make your point.

Again...thanks for the entertainment.

a reply to: Thejaybird

Which is the same thing as writing that statistics cannot be trusted

No. But you did read it that way. I will take it as a criticism of my clarity and strive to improve that.

originally posted by: Phage
a reply to: Salander

The point is that scientists and physicians who dissent from a predetermined narrative are quickly censored.

Bad science should be rejected. Good science can stand up to criticism. That's how science is supposed to work.

Let's say someone, someday, finds a way to show that General Relativity is wrong. That's way against the "narrative." But people have been trying to do that for a long time. Yes, so far they have been "censored", if you will, because their work is flawed. But if it is ever achieved, why, that person would be the next Einstein.

Science, good science, is hard. It's supposed to be.

So the measure of science, good science is how many people you can convince of your authenticity. Sounds like a popularity contest not at all rooted in understanding our reality around us.

originally posted by: UKTruth

originally posted by: Phage
a reply to: UKTruth

Who, me?

Birx did not say

many Covid-19 deaths were fabricated.

Stop the silly games.
Birx said clearly that people who had pre-existing conditions that went into an ICU were counted as Covid deaths if they had Covid. That IS a fabrication of the numbers. Some dude with a dodgy heart has a heart attack, ends up in IC, dies and tests positive for Covid... Covid death.

Dying WITH Covid is not the same as dying BECAUSE of Covid.

You ignored the video of Birx because you couldn't handle being wrong.

None of the Covid death numbers published are real, precisely because of the way they were falsely counted.

Birx also said the Trump admin's slow response contributed to the majority of COVID deaths. Is she right when you agree with her, but wrong when you don't? Funny how folks pick and choose when someone is credible or not.

originally posted by: carewemust

originally posted by: ElectricUniverse
a reply to: ScepticScot

Again...
Apart from that more than enough evidence has been presented in these forums showing that the numbers of COVID-19 patients getting infected and dying from it are being exaggerated, mostly by unscrupulous hospital directors and doctors whom were/are more interested in getting more money by exaggerating/lying about the numbers, and it hasn't stopped.

With billions more dollars recently added to the U.S. medical industry's Covid-19 kitty, expect upward-curving hospitalization and death rates to defy all logic, considering the 110 million vaccinations that have been administered.

Money rules....

Why expect that when the current numbers are trending down?

originally posted by: ElectricUniverse
a reply to: ScepticScot

Again... Since the start people whom had COVID-19, but died of something else, like a car crash, were still counted as dying of COVID-19... in other threads other members and myself have shown this has been happening from the start. There have been doctors, even democrat doctors, whom have stated they have been forced to put pretty much every death as if it was from COVID-19 despite dying of something else.

There have been many reports of, for example, people staying in line to get tested for COVID-19. Their names were written down but were waiting for hours and still had to wait more and left without being tested. Yet those people received mail claiming they were tested and had COVID-19.

Recently I was in south Florida again and visited family and friends. Everywhere i went family and friends knew of someone whom was claimed to have COVID-19 through the tests, but when their doctors examined them and tested them themselves these people didn't have COVID-19.

An elderly former neighbor, which we visited to see how she was, told us that one of her friends was going to go on a trip for elderly people to Georgia, but she was required to be tested for COVID-19. She had already paid for the whole trip. She was tested, and the test came back positive. But she went to her own doctor whom also tested her and she was negative. Even though she had the report of her doctor she was denied from going on the trip and lost all the money she had already paid.

I heard stories like that everywhere we went.

Apart from that more than enough evidence has been presented in these forums showing that the numbers of COVID-19 patients getting infected and dying from it are being exaggerated, mostly by unscrupulous hospital directors and doctors whom were/are more interested in getting more money by exaggerating/lying about the numbers, and it hasn't stopped.

Please provided documented evidence that car crash deaths were reported as COVID deaths.

originally posted by: UKTruth

originally posted by: Phage
a reply to: UKTruth

Disregarding your extremism, the number could be artificially high in the current report which has not yet been validated.

Sure. They miscounted death certificates by hundreds of thousands. That's the ticket.

Confirmation bias.

You're showing your extremism again.
I didn't say there were not a lot of deaths from Covid. In fact, I said the opposite.
Because you are viewing things in black and white - i.e. in the extreme -you are taking any challenge to the unvalidated numbers you showed as an indication that I think they were all fabricated. I don't. I think they are inflated because of the fabrication that Birx admitted to. What is the real number? I don't know. Neither do you.

“So those individuals will have an underlying condition, but that underlying condition did not cause their acute death when it's related to a covid infection,” she said. “In fact, it's the opposite.” How did she admit what you are alluding to? Have a quote or just Tucker Carlson's interpretation of the actual quote?

Recent research into last year's total excess US death rate is putting it well above the previously quoted 16.7%.

US deaths normally change less than 2% each year; in 2020, they rose nearly 23%

The research, publishing Friday in the Journal of the American Medical Association, offers new data from the last 10 months of 2020 on how many Americans died during 2020 as a result of the effects of the pandemic -- beyond the number of COVID-19 deaths alone -- and which states and racial groups were hit hardest.

The rate of excess deaths -- or deaths above the number that would be expected based on averages from the previous five years -- is usually consistent, fluctuating 1% to 2% from year to year, said Steven Woolf, M.D., the study's lead author and director emeritus of VCU's Center on Society and Health. From March 1, 2020, to Jan. 2, 2021, excess deaths rose a staggering 22.9% nationally, fueled by COVID-19 and deaths from other causes, with regions experiencing surges at different times.

"COVID-19 accounted for roughly 72% of the excess deaths we're calculating, and that's similar to what our earlier studies showed. There is a sizable gap between the number of publicly reported COVID-19 deaths and the sum total of excess deaths the country has actually experienced," Woolf said.

For the other 28% of the nation's 522,368 excess deaths during that period, some may actually have been from COVID-19, even if the virus was not listed on the death certificates due to reporting issues.

But Woolf said disruptions caused by the pandemic were another cause of the 28% of excess deaths not attributed to COVID-19. Examples might include deaths resulting from not seeking or finding adequate care in an emergency such as a heart attack, experiencing fatal complications from a chronic disease such as diabetes, or facing a behavioral health crisis that led to suicide or drug overdose.

"All three of those categories could have contributed to an increase in deaths among people who did not have COVID-19 but whose lives were essentially taken by the pandemic," said Woolf, a professor in the Department of Family Medicine and Population Health at the VCU School of Medicine.

As the report acknowledges, part of an estimated 28% of the total increased deaths will have been caused by people not receiving medical care because of the disruption to the health care system. Unfortunately, that percentage will probably increase as a knock on effect. The UK doctor is correct. Many people who would otherwise have sought help will not have done so, either because it was difficult to get it, because of a not unreasonable fear of contracting the virus in hospital, or to avoid burdening an overtaxed service.

Clearly it's important to tease out the diverse causes of the higher death rate to inform future policy.

a reply to: Phage

Our cousin who committed suicide last May would have been among these numbers. In fact, according to this (edited to remove graphics which further demonstrated this point) article, the largest increase in death rate was among the typically healthiest age group (25-44). Strangely, this is one of the least likely to die from COVID age groups.

However, deaths have been 20-50% above average levels for most age groups. Deaths among people 25-44 have been particularly above normal, since deaths among people this young are generally low.

usafacts.org...
What killed the young and healthy last year?

According to the CDC link on Jan 19, there was a breakdown of deaths by age group, and how many of those were COVID related.
According to the data posted, 7,938 of the total 169,916 number of deaths in this age group were attributed to COVID.

a reply to: zosimov

What killed the young and healthy last year?

Though the suicide count was down, the "unintentional injury" count was significantly higher than 2019. Perhaps there is an overlap. A breakdown by age for each category could be instructive.

jamanetwork.com...

a reply to: zosimov
Link

When COVID first hit the USA, that age group appeared to be less affected. Those were early studies. "Estimating the true burden of COVID-19 will require continued monitoring of excess deaths by cause. Additional non–COVID-19 deaths due to the pandemic will probably occur for many years because of delays in cancer screening, surgery, and other essential health care."

originally posted by: Phage
a reply to: jjkenobi

There were 345,323 deaths directly attributed to COVID.

One might speculate that increases in deaths due to heart disease, stroke, pnuemonia, and diabetes may have been contributed to by COVID infection. Or maybe it was just a fluke.

There was a 15.9% increase in the death from 2019. But maybe the pandemic had nothing to do with that.

I'm not on the last page yet but I see the bias already. Phage was quoting age adjusted rate at first. Now he's calling it increase in death as it was crude death number. Everyone can see that there's not a 15.9% increase in crude numbers. Not to mention the annual increase before 2019, increase in 2017 or annual oscillation. If you wanna adjust something you need to take the annual increase due to population growth, old baby boomers etc and extrapolate from there. If there was lets say 10% increase in year one and 16% increase in year two, there's a 6% above normal at best.
There will be nerds processing the data soon anyway. I'll wait. Also, I'd say in advance 'go to hell with age adjusted rate estimates that look bigger than they are and other tricks you can hide your scam in'

a reply to: stonergeek

Unless I'm mistaken, that quote really doesn't address my question.

Those deaths you refer to in your quote would not be due to the pandemic, but rather to the response (lockdown) in any area aside from those which all hospitals/doctors were truly overburdened (rather than predicted to be).

a reply to: zosimov


Actually, it does. Your question was "What killed the young and healthy last year? " They are either COVID or additional, and all data is not in nor analyzed as yet. The answer is basically, we won't know for a long time.

a reply to: PapagiorgioCZ

If you wanna adjust something you need to take the annual increase due to population growth, old baby boomers etc and extrapolate from there.

That's exactly what the age adjusted rate is.

Age-adjusted death rates (deaths per 100,000) after 1998 are calculated based on the 2000 U.S. standard population. Populations used for computing death rates for 2011–2017 are postcensal estimates based on the 2010 census, estimated as of July 1, 2010. Rates for census years are based on populations enumerated in the corresponding censuses. Rates for noncensus years between 2000 and 2010 are revised using updated intercensal population estimates and may differ from rates previously published. Data on age-adjusted death rates prior to 1999 are taken from historical data (see References below).

data.cdc.gov...

The 2020 age adjusted death rate was 15.9% higher than that of 2019. Using the same adjustment for each year.

Death counts:
2019: 2,854,838
2020: 3,358,814
Increase deaths: 503,976. An increase of 17.6%

2019
2020

a reply to: Phage

I agree that a breakdown by age would be very instructive, and feel very strongly that if we are being asked to make life and health altering sacrifices, some of which will have long term negative effects on lives, that we should have access to accurate and comprehensive numbers.

Here's some useful data:
data.cdc.gov...

a reply to: stonergeek

Even if true, this is ridiculous. The pandemic and the negative and unhealthy effects of the lockdowns are damaging people's health now. There is no excuse for hospitals/morticians/whoever is responsible for recording data not to have a responsible and effective way of recording information into a national database now that we're 4 months into a new year.

Even the CDC only claims incomplete data for 6-12 months or so. Which means we should already know all the data up until September and a great deal of the remaining months. The straggler figures will certainly not amount to significantly altered figures.

According to the CDC, the average time to process a COVID death is 7 days. Any outliers are certainly not the norm.

Maybe the real figures will be released in 30 years.

a reply to: Phage

census noncensus... I'm not gonna study a new thing for that. There's enough nerds on our side (side of the people) Until they call it BS all I care about is the crude number in OP put on a graph to see that previous years were going up too.

As far as the age adjustment goes - Cuomo killed grandma. Lot of them. Young people were killed on ventilators near me. Homeless. The number could actually be valid but in fact useless to judge the "pandemic" Another posters mentioned enough deaths caused by lockdowns and related reasons. There's little chance we'll reach an agreement and it should be easy in case of math. I guess there's no science or data without agenda these days. We've seen it with "global warming", fake graphs, misleading hockey sticks ignoring historic data, missing blue, abundant red, missing ocean temperature bellow 1 meter depth. It's too easy to mislead masses these days. I admit I'm lazy to do in depth research. I'm not paid for that.