Johns Hopkins: U.S. Death Rate Remains NORMAL Despite COVID-19

originally posted by: ScepticScot

originally posted by: UKTruth

originally posted by: ScepticScot

originally posted by: UKTruth

originally posted by: ScepticScot

originally posted by: UKTruth

originally posted by: Phage
a reply to: UKTruth

They are deaths 'confirmed or presumed' Covid-19 and you (or I) simply don't know how many were BECAUSE of Covid-19.

Not precisely, of course. But that "presumed" means the the person did not have a COVID positive test before death. The physician used their expertise to determine it.

There must be some reason that there were large increases in deaths attributed to heart disease, stroke, diabetes, and pnuemonia. Maybe COVID had something to do with it. Or maybe it was something else.

There must be some reason there was a 15.9% increase in the death rate from 2019. But maybe it wasn't the pandemic.

Maybe those people didn't die. Maybe the deaths were fabricated.

If's, buts, and maybe's - that's about the only accurate representation of the Covid death numbers.

Do you have the same issue with other causes of death being determined this way or just specifically covid?

No. Not at the moment.
If the Govt decided to overreach based on other deaths and then publish unreliable numbers that gave credence to their overreach, I would.

Can you suggest have a more reliable source of numbers than the medical professionals actually issuing the death certificate?

If I am reading your poor English correctly, you want another source?
If so, no. I don't believe any of the published numbers.

Thankfully public policy isn't based round your paranoia.

Yes, yes - we should never ever mistrust the Govt... except of course if you don't like what they are doing.
I still remember your ridiculous EU posts. Paranoia indeed.

originally posted by: Phage
a reply to: Brotherman

Sure.

But the premise being presented by the OP is that the overall number of deaths nationwide was not unusual. So that's what's being discussed.

And I am here curious to see if the death rate in my part of the nation is unusual or not. Like I said earlier maybe I will call some funeral homes after the holiday weekend and see what some of them have to say about their business, after all they are the death burial cremation business. I imagine they would have something to say in regards to what is being discussed.

a reply to: UKTruth

That would seem odd, because not many of the pre-existing conditions cases in the ICU that resulted in death and were counted as Covid cases could have been removed from the death certificate numbers. Seems a bit unlikely.

Stranger things have happened. It's unlikely that someone would win the lottery once, much less three timed.

So what do you reckon caused a 15.9% increase in the death rate?

originally posted by: Phage
a reply to: UKTruth

Disregarding your extremism, the number could be artificially high in the current report which has not yet been validated.

Sure. They miscounted death certificates by hundreds of thousands. That's the ticket.

Confirmation bias.

You're showing your extremism again.
I didn't say there were not a lot of deaths from Covid. In fact, I said the opposite.
Because you are viewing things in black and white - i.e. in the extreme -you are taking any challenge to the unvalidated numbers you showed as an indication that I think they were all fabricated. I don't. I think they are inflated because of the fabrication that Birx admitted to. What is the real number? I don't know. Neither do you.

a reply to: UKTruth

I think they are inflated because of the fabrication that Birx admitted to

There was no fabrication of deaths. Deaths were reported as COVID related if there was a COVID infection. It's not really hard to understand. Those people died. Their deaths were not fabricated.

What is the real number?

I'll go with the death certificate information as a good measure. Something caused a lot more deaths last year than previously. COVID fits the bill.

a reply to: Phage

I wonder how all the lockdowns and shutdowns and quarantines affected the large homeless populations in places like LA and Vegas? I wonder how many of them died just because they couldn't do what they normally could do to stay alive?

originally posted by: Phage
a reply to: UKTruth

That would seem odd, because not many of the pre-existing conditions cases in the ICU that resulted in death and were counted as Covid cases could have been removed from the death certificate numbers. Seems a bit unlikely.

Stranger things have happened. It's unlikely that someone would win the lottery once, much less three timed.

So what do you reckon caused a 15.9% increase in the death rate?

Think about it some more.
Birx admitted that any admission to an ICU with a pre-existing condition where Covid was found was counted as a Covid death and that number is remarkably close the number reported via death certs. That should at the very least raise a question in your mind.

Why is there are 15.9% jump?
No idea - maybe they haven't separated out the single cause yet in that report.
Maybe there was a much bigger increase in other areas related to the lockdown.

You do realise that cause of death on death certificated is not that robust, right?

Here's a UK doctor talking about the subject

spiked: Do you think the Covid statistics are accurate?

Malcolm Kendrick: It is very difficult to tell. It is clear that different countries are recording deaths differently. Death certification is not a precise science. Normally, when someone dies, you have got a reasonably good idea what they died from. But if a person who is 85 drops dead, what do you put on the certificate? I do this, so I know it is not very accurate. GPs were advised to put Covid-19 on the certificate if they suspected somebody had it, even if there was no test done. We are in a strange situation where we are probably both over-recording Covid-19 and simultaneously under-recording it. Will we ever know what the real statistics were?

We are over-recording it because elderly people die quite often, and we may say they have died of Covid-19 but not know that was the case. Therefore there will have been a number of people who died of other things who have been recorded as dying of Covid-19. Equally, there will be people who died of Covid-19 but the GP did not know, so did not put it on the certificate. It really depends on how people decide to record the death.

The really concerning thing is that if all the deaths taking place during lockdown are put down as Covid-19 deaths, we are going to miss the fact that the lockdown policies have caused an increase in deaths from many other things. There has been a 50 per cent reduction in people turning up to A&E. It is clear that people just do not want to bother the doctors. And a number of these people will be dying. If we muddle the Covid-19 statistics in with the other statistics, we might think the lockdown has prevented a certain number of deaths, when it has actually caused a large number of deaths.

The only confirmation bias here is yours. You haven't thought things through beyond seeing a table of numbers presented by a Govt. agency that confirm your view. Numbers that are not validated and numbers you have no idea on how they were generated.

I'm with the good doctor quoted above... we'll likely never really know how many people died of Covid because of poor recording practice.

Try and think more. Since you jumped into the political threads you've become very extreme in your views and departed from critical thinking. I was hoping you'd revert back now that Trump is gone.

a reply to: UKTruth

No idea - maybe they haven't separated out the single cause yet in that report.
Maybe there was a much bigger increase in other areas related to the lockdown.

I posted this before. Too bad you missed it.

jamanetwork.com...

Notice also increases deaths attributed to other diseases in which COVID is known to be problematic. Heart disease, diabetes, etc.

But you've already made up your mind that the numbers are fabricated, so it doesn't matter. COVID had nothing to do with the increase in death rate.

originally posted by: Phage
a reply to: UKTruth

No idea - maybe they haven't separated out the single cause yet in that report.
Maybe there was a much bigger increase in other areas related to the lockdown.

I posted this before. Too bad you missed it.

jamanetwork.com...

Notice also increases deaths attributed to other diseases in which COVID is known to be problematic.

I didn't miss it. I saw it and read it, then quoted it back to you.
How do you know there was not a big jump in deaths related to other causes due to lockdown - that were recorded as Covid?
As I mentioned above, death certificates are not that accurate.

I'll quote this again from the doctors interview I quoted before:

The really concerning thing is that if all the deaths taking place during lockdown are put down as Covid-19 deaths, we are going to miss the fact that the lockdown policies have caused an increase in deaths from many other things. There has been a 50 per cent reduction in people turning up to A&E. It is clear that people just do not want to bother the doctors. And a number of these people will be dying. If we muddle the Covid-19 statistics in with the other statistics, we might think the lockdown has prevented a certain number of deaths, when it has actually caused a large number of deaths.

a reply to: UKTruth

How do you know there was not a jump in deaths related to other causes due to lockdown - that were recorded as Covid?

Thousands upon thousands of doctors and coroners lied on death certificates. You go with that if it makes you feel better in your cozy little confirmation biased bubble.

Ignore the fact that it wasn't just COVID numbers that went up. Ignore the fact that other diseases which make COVID highly problematic went up. The numbers are just wrong, because, well, they must me.

originally posted by: Phage
a reply to: UKTruth

How do you know there was not a jump in deaths related to other causes due to lockdown - that were recorded as Covid?

Ok. Thousands of doctors and coroners lied. You go with that if it makes you feel better in your cozy little confirmation biased bubble.

It's not about lying.
In the UK, as an example, it's not even about coronors. Doctors were just putting Covid as the cause of death - on the death cert - without even a test being done.
Are you going to tell me the US is above all that? That your health care system is so good and robust it couldn't happen there?

the numbers overall could be correct. There may have been a big jump in deaths related to other reasons because of the effects of the lockdown - but they just got recorded as Covid, just as the doctor I linked above articulated... unless him merely mentioning it means he's in a 'cozy little confirmation bias bubble too'?
Or could it be you are just waving around Govt statistics as a crutch for your own little bubble?

originally posted by: Phage
a reply to: UKTruth

How do you know there was not a jump in deaths related to other causes due to lockdown - that were recorded as Covid?

Ok. Thousands of doctors and coroners lied. You go with that if it makes you feel better in your cozy little confirmation biased bubble.

Now you've reverted to your extremism again.
Shame.

a reply to: UKTruth

It's not extremism. It is what it would require for the numbers to be very far off base.

originally posted by: Phage
a reply to: UKTruth

It's not extremism. It is what it would require for the numbers to be very far off base.

Again:

spiked: Do you think the Covid statistics are accurate?

Malcolm Kendrick: It is very difficult to tell. It is clear that different countries are recording deaths differently. Death certification is not a precise science. Normally, when someone dies, you have got a reasonably good idea what they died from. But if a person who is 85 drops dead, what do you put on the certificate? I do this, so I know it is not very accurate. GPs were advised to put Covid-19 on the certificate if they suspected somebody had it, even if there was no test done. We are in a strange situation where we are probably both over-recording Covid-19 and simultaneously under-recording it. Will we ever know what the real statistics were?

It's not about lying.

Your Govt statistics could be way off and you'd never know.
That's the reality, whether you choose to accept it or not.

That you believe wholeheartedly and without question in a set of numbers from the Govt., that you have no clue at all on how they were compiled, is actually an extreme position to take.

Do you always believe 100% in everything the Govt' tells you?

a reply to: UKTruth

I do this, so I know it is not very accurate. GPs were advised to put Covid-19 on the certificate if they suspected somebody had it, even if there was no test done.

Advised by whom? This is not the guidance provided by the CDC.

Consider your source. Carefully.
rationalwiki.org...

I do this, so I know it is not very accurate. GPs were advised to put Covid-19 on the certificate if they suspected somebody had it, even if there was no test done.

Along with any other conditions which were present at the time of death. Again, these are statistics on the recorded cause of death, not other conditions which may have been present.

originally posted by: Phage
a reply to: UKTruth

I do this, so I know it is not very accurate. GPs were advised to put Covid-19 on the certificate if they suspected somebody had it, even if there was no test done.

Advised by whom? This is not the guidance provided by the CDC.

Consider your source. Carefully.
rationalwiki.org...

I do this, so I know it is not very accurate. GPs were advised to put Covid-19 on the certificate if they suspected somebody had it, even if there was no test done.

Along with any other conditions which were present at the time of death. Again, these statistics on the recorded cause of death, not other conditions which may have been present.

Consider your source. More carefully.
Here are the current list of trustees of RationalWiki.

GrammarCommie
LeftyGreenMario
Spud
FuzzyCatPotato
Tmtoulouse (Operations Manager, incumbent)

a reply to: UKTruth

You know that sources are provided. The guy is a quack. Just the sort to be taken seriously by some on ATS.

originally posted by: Phage
a reply to: UKTruth

You know that sources are provided. The guy is a quack.

Yes when all else fails, smear the source using a ridiculous far-left website run by lunatics.
You've taken to political extremist tactics like a duck to water, Phage.
Just state those that know more than you are quack's when your argument takes a tumble.

a reply to: UKTruth

The source should always be considered. The wiki page provides sources. Do you think they are lying?

And whatever he was talking about had nothing to do with CDC guidance.