Does the Number of Recorded Deaths in 2020 Reflect the Reported Number of COVID Deaths?

Does the Number of Recorded Deaths in 2020 Reflect the Reported Number of COVID deaths?
I have to begin by saying that this post is not intended to diminish the severity of COVID, only to begin an inquest to determine its severity. I think by now most of us know we’ve been given data that doesn’t add up, and considering that some of us are being forced to lose our livelihoods, retirements, homes, careers, education, peace of mind (for example kids or roommates of abusers stuck in a “safer at home” lockdowns), etc in part as a result of the horrific death counts which have been fed to us on a daily basis, I think an examination of the emerging data is imperative.
According to the research I’ve been doing based on CDC’s site, as well as data compiled (from CDC) and reported by AP and USAFacts, the numbers do not add up when comparing the recorded deaths in 2020 with that of 2019.
I’d like to elaborate here.
Before we begin, I do anticipate a counter argument regarding the fact that the overall death count does rise when some delayed reports come in. According to the CDC, 80% of non-covid deaths are reported immediately. 63% of all deaths (COVID or non-covid) are reported within 10 days, and the average processing time to record a COVID death is 7 days.
The data points I will be using were published on Jan 6 2021 and Jan 13 2021.
While it may be true that the number of people who died in 2020 might rise, looking at the above information, we could safely guess that the majority of numbers for 2020 were reported by Jan 13.
The most recent numbers on the CDC site I could find record the deaths from 1/1/2020 - 1/9/2021 (Nine days into the new year--my focus for this article is only the difference between the number of people who died in 2019 and 2020)
On Jan 6, the number of recorded deaths from 1/1/2020-12/26/2020 was 3,187,086.
On Jan 13, the number of recorded deaths went 9 days into the new year and was 3,247,306. Of this number, 26,612 died of COVID in 2021.
I will subtract that number from the overall and COVID deaths for 2020.
That brings the number to 3,220,694. Based on a low estimate of 8000 deaths per day on average, the number of deaths between 1/1/2020 and 1/1/2021 is probably much lower than that. Maybe we can agree on the number 3,200,000 as a pretty fair representation of how many Americans died in 2020.www.cdc.gov...
It’s a really horrible number, and considering that 2019 saw only 2,854,838 deaths, an increase of 345,162 more dead Americans should sober us all.
But we are meant to believe that 302,981 of these deaths were due to coronavirus. The problem here is that the numbers don’t add up.
For example, each year, the number of deaths rise on average 20,000-50,000 (to account for rising and aging populations).
2019 was an especially low year for deaths-rising only 16,000. According to the AP,

“The CDC counted 2,854,838 U.S. deaths last year, or nearly 16,000 more than 2018. That’s fairly good news: Deaths usually rise by about 20,000 to 50,000 each year, mainly due to the nation’s aging, and growing, population”

apnews.com...

So considering that 2019 was an unusually low year (suicides and cancer deaths were down, for example), that the population is rising, and that 20% of the current population is 70+ years old, I’m going to estimate a rise of 40,000 deaths from 2019 and add that to our count.

302,981 recorded COVID deaths plus 40,000 is 342,981.
According to up to date information, there were 345,162 more deaths in 2020 than in 2019.
That leaves only 2181 Americans who died in excess in 2020 died of any cause other than COVID (beyond an average rise in death rate accounting for higher and aging population).

I call BS
(but can prove it if needed).

In fact, according to this NPR source, homicides more than tripled in 2020
www.npr.org...
As of May 2020, drug overdose deaths were on track to be at an all time high

Over 81,000 drug overdose deaths occurred in the United States in the 12 months ending in May 2020, the highest number of overdose deaths ever recorded in a 12-month period, according to recent provisional data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).

usafacts.org...

While overdose deaths were already increasing in the months preceding the 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic, the latest numbers suggest an acceleration of overdose deaths during the pandemic.
“The disruption to daily life due to the COVID-19 pandemic has hit those with substance use disorder hard,” said CDC Director Robert Redfield, M.D. “As we continue the fight to end this pandemic, it’s important to not lose sight of different groups being affected in other ways. We need to take care of people suffering from unintended consequences.”

www.health.state.mn.us...
As of June, traffic mortality rate was up 12.7 % from the previous year.
usa.streetsblog.org... (Sam Schwartz source of article).
*Based on number of vehicles on the road. In June, when this data came out, there were far fewer cars on the road than the subsequent months.
Whether this results in more traffic deaths than last year (thereby accounting for some of those excess deaths, remains to be seen. In June 2020, there were 401 fewer cumulative traffic deaths than the same time last year, but also fewer people driving.)

Finally, the most damning evidence against the claimed number of COVID deaths in 2020 is from USAFacts.com (I googled it and according to google, it’s a non-partisan fact based site-feel free to do the same) Check out this quote from the article:

However, deaths have been 20-50% above average levels for most age groups. Deaths among people 25-44 have been particularly above normal, since deaths among people this young are generally low.

(Coronavirus deaths among this age group accounted for 7,938 of the total 169,916 or .04% of 2020 deaths in this age group)
usafacts.org...

I am so tired of the propaganda and just want to know the facts.
What do you think, friends?

Yes, the numbers are BS. Anyone with any modicum of curiosity can quickly ferret out the propaganda being pushed.

The problem is most people won't take the time to dig into the details and just run with the headline.

Japan has a population of about 130 million people.
As of 1-28-2021 a record of deaths from the corona virus stood at 4598 people.
Yesterday we had 58 deaths nationwide.
All cause of deaths are verified by the prefectural govt. police here. So there is no inflation or possible fraud being done.
The govt. just start paying hospitals to take in more covid patients.
1/2 of infected people now are in their teens and in their 20's.
76% of the beds in Tokyo are filled
Now we have people dying at home due to lack of beds and medical help.


hope this helps

a reply to: zosimov

Here is a stat to chew on...

Around 40-50% of Covid deaths are tied to long term care facilities....

Let that marinate...

Now consider that more than 50% of residents of long-term care facilities die within six months of admission.

So even BEFORE covid was a thing, around 50% of people admitted to a LTC facility died within six months. Just google it yourself. Depends on the study, but the take away is that a not so insignificant number of LTC admittees die fairly quickly, so it is a bit of a stretch to call these "covid deaths".

a reply to: zosimov

To be honest it's almost pointless right now to make an attempt to determine the facts.

They started very early on with obvious manipulation of the information given to the public.

Too many people are too wise to that now. The first time you're caught releasing bad data, even if it was unintentional which in this case it wasn't, you lose the faith of the people you're trying to "protect".

I've said it probably a half dozen times now, based on actual experience, that I believe it will be years before an honest study of this completely botched pandemic response emerges. Most of the people that lived through the lockdowns and egregious abuses of emergency power will never see the revised numbers or the After-Action Reports. Those that are in the field of public health will see it and promptly ignore it just like they did with the 2009 H1N1 response. I fully expect the first paper that is highly critical of the response to come out about 6 months after Fauci is either completely gone from public life or dies of old age, as we now only take aim at the ruling class when they're no longer around to be shamed. Identity politics makes it impossible for honest assessments of political allies until they're gone.

Just like many other government agencies the public health sector has a significant problem with entrenched leaders that are clearly partisan actors first and public health professionals second.

There was an agenda. Science may change how we respond to disease outbreaks, but politics and power are what shaped this event.

Adjusting for the normal USA population increase, 2020 Deaths in America were not many more than in 2019.

Source: www.abovetopsecret.com...

All the torturing of numbers and statistics will not change that fact.

Bottom line: +99.9% of everyone alive today, will die of something besides Covid-19.

He who controls the data, controls the narrative

I've given up trying to pull numbers, reveal statistics and find trends that support or destroy the narrative. Finding historical data is a bit of a challenge, at least for my immediate area. You'd figure it would be a simple Click Here to View Figures for year XXXX but it's not. In some cases you need to submit a request.

What are they hiding???

originally posted by: TXRabbit
He who controls the data, controls the narrative

I've given up trying to pull numbers, reveal statistics and find trends that support or destroy the narrative. Finding historical data is a bit of a challenge, at least for my immediate area. You'd figure it would be a simple Click Here to View Figures for year XXXX but it's not. In some cases you need to submit a request.

What are they hiding???

You also have to be careful about sly methodological changes in how data is reported or calculated. Not to mention definitions of terms. It is like how they report "cases" but don't tell anyone how sensitive the PCR test is and that a Covid case does not mean someone is symptomatic or even contagious, just that they've run so many cycles on the PCR test it basically shows a false positive.

a reply to: Edumakated

Not to mention, even the CDC website admits the COVID numbers reflect

Deaths with confirmed or presumed COVID-19, coded to ICD–10 code U07.1

(Bold is mine--quoted material near the very bottom of the site)

All of them are coded U07. I checked
And that 11,781 of these deaths had one of the following comorbidities:
Intentional and unintentional injury, poisoning and other adverse events
Very manipulative indeed.
www.cdc.gov...

Thanks to all for the interesting comments so far.

Those Americans who have suffered due to the Covid-19 shutdown hysteria will NEVER FORGET who screwed them... Blue State Governors and Mayors, with the help of the U.S. Mainstream Media...all friends of Communist China.

originally posted by: carewemust
Those Americans who have suffered due to the Covid-19 shutdown hysteria will NEVER FORGET who screwed them... Blue State Governors and Mayors, with the help of the U.S. Mainstream Media...all friends of Communist China.

You over estimate the intelligence of the American public.

I live in a uber liberal town. Plenty of businesses closed and carnage as a result of the shut down. These people here have yet to connect it to the very liberal politicians they vote for.

originally posted by: zosimov
Thanks to all for the interesting comments so far.

Yeah, but with respect, nobody challenged you. Shall I try? Deep breaths...

Okay, what we all need to realise - and especially realise after ten months; it took a ex whining numbskull like me ages to understand - is that none of these lockdowns and restrictions ever had ANYTHING to do with Death.

Forget Death.

As I said elsewhere, even the most serious pandemic of the 20th century, Spanish Flu, with a global death toll of 50 million, arguably had it easier than us coping with a less serious virus such as Covid-19 and its current toll of 2 million.

Yet Covid-19 is more serious in one important aspect. Spanish Flu could cast you into a coffin within 1-3 days, but with an incredibly infectious albeit less deadly virus such as Covid-19, patients are less likely to die swiftly and will stew for possibly 2 weeks+ in a hospital bed. Filling a great number of hospital beds, requiring other treatments to be cancelled.

The problem is obvious And I HATE this problem, it distresses me that we have destroyed our economies off the back of it. I can feel myself howling and raging at the sky over it. There's no grand conspiracy theory or NWO push behind how we have managed Covid-19 (at least not outside Wuhan!). Hell, I almost wish there was; it would at least indicate some kind of long term strategy of sorts instead of the befuddled aimless mess we were in until vaccines arrived (and we still need to wait for the results of their effectiveness outside trials in preventing hospital treatment, especially with mutations running rampant).

We were damned if we had no lockdowns, and damned if we did have them.

I have close friends whose lives have been utterly ruined because of Covid restrictions. Suicides have ramped up to record levels in countries. Cancer patients have been abandoned to die. The future seems broken. A Depression (forget Recession; economists in August admitted we had a chance if there was not more than one lockdown, but three?!) is imminent.

And ALL because of THESE things... or lack thereof...










Dammit.

a reply to: ConfusedBrit

I always appreciate reading any well-reasoned and respectful response!

I think that if it's not, and never has been about deaths (and I in part agree with you there--flatten the curve and all that), then the problem is that lockdown and (arguably) its resulting chaos has most likely lead to not only economic devistation, but a loss of life and health as well.

This is why I wish we were given more useful data--so we could all find out whether the fallout of lockdown is an increase in deaths, and if this response is not about the COVID deaths, but is causing superfluous deaths/health issues, I think we need to reexamine our approach.

Anyone with a brain and 5 minutes research can see the agenda behind the covid response is totally unrelated to the virus, it’s merely a facilitator for wealth redistribution. There’s no arguments that’s the driving force. TPTB feel emboldened enough to throw this crap right in our face without any fear of retribution as they control the narrative of the public mind. You have to applaud the ruse, it’s quite remarkable that such a large majority of Earths population is so naive.

Well done to the NWO overlords, I’m thoroughly impressed. Where do I apply to join? Mind manipulation of these brainless sheep seems like a lot of fun.

December mortality rates are still incomplete, particularly the last 2 weeks, so total deaths will still increase a little.

I can't see anything in your linked article to support the claim that total homicides have more than trippled? I would also suggest that seems extremely unlikely

Road traffic deaths have also decreased as you confirm in first half of the year. Why would that be evidence against the numbers bring correct?

Even a relatively small increase deaths amongst people in younger age brackets would look like a high increase in percentage terms, again the text you quote confirms this How is this evidence that the numbers are incorrect?

The lock downs and changes in peoples behaviour are going to make both the composition and amount of total deaths change from a normal year. However the fact that the excess deaths figure roughly aligns with the deaths from civil doesn't seem to be evidence that numbers are wrong.

originally posted by: carewemust

Adjusting for the normal USA population increase, 2020 Deaths in America were not many more than in 2019.

Source: www.abovetopsecret.com...

All the torturing of numbers and statistics will not change that fact.

Bottom line: +99.9% of everyone alive today, will die of something besides Covid-19.

12% + increase isn't many more?

a reply to: ScepticScot

If governments are willing to declare war for billions and send young men to their deaths what makes you think they give a flying duck about the elderly at the cost of trillions? Money makes the world go round, follow the money and you find out who’s responsible.

originally posted by: Grenade
Anyone with a brain and 5 minutes research can see the agenda behind the covid response is totally unrelated to the virus, it’s merely a facilitator for wealth redistribution. There’s no arguments that’s the driving force. TPTB feel emboldened enough to throw this crap right in our face without any fear of retribution as they control the narrative of the public mind. You have to applaud the ruse, it’s quite remarkable that such a large majority of Earths population is so naive.

Well done to the NWO overlords, I’m thoroughly impressed. Where do I apply to join? Mind manipulation of these brainless sheep seems like a lot of fun.

5 minutes research being believing any conspiracy theory you come across on YouTube?

Having a brain and actually using it are two separate things.

originally posted by: Grenade
a reply to: ScepticScot

If governments are willing to declare war for billions and send young men to their deaths what makes you think they give a flying duck about the elderly at the cost of trillions? Money makes the world go round, follow the money and you find out who’s responsible.

Governments in democracies generally care about going reelected. Older people vote.