WW3 fears SOAR as Taiwan admits 'we cannot rule out possibility' of war with China

originally posted by: Kenzo

CCP is using Twitter against other countrys, for example this one , with fake photo..

I'd hardly call this a "fake photo", it's a set piece using an actor, and it's not supposed to be believed as a real picture.

It's also no different form Trump posting a screen shot of a drone strike from COD in a tweet about bombing Iran.

a reply to: Never Despise

Let's be realistic hear.

If Taiwan declares independence, there will be war. Taiwan will lose in less than 45 minutes because China has so many missile in Fujian Province that it could destroy all of Taiwan's military bases and a significant portion of its infrastructure in the time that it takes for those missiles to reach their targets. Taiwan's missile defense system would not be able to stand up to that kind of barrage and the island would fall before America could respond, and By the time US aircraft carriers could get within striking range Chinese submarines would be there waiting. Washington would be worried about the propaganda value of even a single carrier being damaged and would hold them too far back to make a difference.

If Taiwan doesn't declare independence, no war. It's as simple as that.

All Taiwan has to do is to play along and pretend that it's not independent and China won't attack.

China doesn't want to attack. Attacking would mean admitting that Taiwan wasn't part of the mainland. Which is something that they don't want to do.

Both sides can sit there like this forever. with no war.

a reply to: Never Despise

How warrented are the fears of the Taiwanese?

They are warranted but it's up to Taiwan not to stoke already existing tensions with China.

Would America have the stomach for a war over Taiwan?

While not obligated to defend Taiwan the US is the stick that keeps China at bay , under the Taiwan Relations Act it would be Congress who would take the decision whether to intervene or not should China make a move on Taiwan , whether they have the stomach for it remains to be seen as does whether China has the confidence to make such a move ... it's a delicate balance.

originally posted by: AaarghZombies
a reply to: Never Despise

Let's be realistic hear.

If Taiwan declares independence, there will be war. Taiwan will lose in less than 45 minutes because China has so many missile in Fujian Province that it could destroy all of Taiwan's military bases and a significant portion of its infrastructure in the time that it takes for those missiles to reach their targets. Taiwan's missile defense system would not be able to stand up to that kind of barrage and the island would fall before America could respond, and By the time US aircraft carriers could get within striking range Chinese submarines would be there waiting. Washington would be worried about the propaganda value of even a single carrier being damaged and would hold them too far back to make a difference.

If Taiwan doesn't declare independence, no war. It's as simple as that.

All Taiwan has to do is to play along and pretend that it's not independent and China won't attack.

China doesn't want to attack. Attacking would mean admitting that Taiwan wasn't part of the mainland. Which is something that they don't want to do.

Both sides can sit there like this forever. with no war.

Do you honestly think the US would sit back and allow China to either wipe out or incapacitate the source of 48% of the worlds microchips? That would be an economically devastating blow, globally.

US has already shown ample strike capability without needing to have a carrier group nearby, and that's to say nothing of the US' sub fleet. Don't kid yourself; a preemptive strike on Taiwan from China (over a political declaration??) WOULD elicit a military response. The problem then would be after China was smacked back, would they retaliate and up the ante, and expand the conflict outside the region. I would not bet against it.

I honestly hope it never comes to this, because it's probably among a handful of geopolitical scenarios that have a very high likelihood of escalating into WW3. Nobody wants nor needs this brinkmanship; way too risky.

The best thing for the West to do would be to yank chip fabs and the microprocessor supply chains out of that hot spot. Then, if China wants to invade Taiwan over a political declaration, they can have at it. The idea that US hasn't foreseen this vulnerability and acted accordingly demonstrates the corruption, greed and strategic stupidity that has infiltrated our government and foreign policy. 80 years ago, if the US business community had attempted to relocate vital manufacturing and infrastructure capability less than 200k from say Germany or Japan, they would've been given a royal smack down from the US government for even considering such a hair-brained idea. As we see now, with all of the Chinese money that has flowed into the West, the people we elect to make sound, long-term strategic decisions protecting US interests are "on the payroll", and it ain't from taxpayer money.

a reply to: AaarghZombies
The US does not officially recognize Taiwan and China as seperate nations.

originally posted by: Never Despise
a reply to: tinktinktink

I meant, would the US go to war against China to protect Taiwan.

Under Biden we would go to war against Taiwan for China.

Or rather, we sould simply sit by and let China consume Taiwan.

a reply to: Ohanka

I would tend to agree with that line of reasoning.

If China is okay with North Korea's nuclear weapons, then we should be okay (theoretically) with a nuclear-armed Taiwan.

It is more that tit for tat ... it is tit for tit!

a reply to: Never Despise

Worst thing about a US war with China.......no, or very few Democrats will serve and die in that war.

a reply to: tanstaafl

Nah, he will pull a Carter and pay China to take Taiwan.

originally posted by: TonyS
a reply to: tanstaafl

Nah, he will pull a Carter and pay China to take Taiwan.

You misunderstand the flow of money.

China will pay Biden (as they have been doing for years) to look the other way.

originally posted by: AaarghZombies
a reply to: Never Despise

Let's be realistic hear.

If Taiwan declares independence, there will be war. Taiwan will lose in less than 45 minutes because China has so many missile in Fujian Province that it could destroy all of Taiwan's military bases and a significant portion of its infrastructure in the time that it takes for those missiles to reach their targets. Taiwan's missile defense system would not be able to stand up to that kind of barrage and the island would fall before America could respond, and By the time US aircraft carriers could get within striking range Chinese submarines would be there waiting. Washington would be worried about the propaganda value of even a single carrier being damaged and would hold them too far back to make a difference.

If Taiwan doesn't declare independence, no war. It's as simple as that.

All Taiwan has to do is to play along and pretend that it's not independent and China won't attack.

China doesn't want to attack. Attacking would mean admitting that Taiwan wasn't part of the mainland. Which is something that they don't want to do.

Both sides can sit there like this forever. with no war.

Taiwan should not declare independence. They are the leigitmate government of China and the US should take the lead in recognising them as such.

The Communist Triad occupying the mainland should not be treated as a legitimate government.

originally posted by: Never Despise

TAIWAN's foreign minister has said the nation "cannot rule out the possibility" of war with China amid fears of the eastern superpower "launching a military attack".

www.express.co.uk...

How warrented are the fears of the Taiwanese?

Would China take advantage of transition confusion in the US, or perceived weakness of a Biden administration, to achieve a long-standing goal of "unification"?

Would America have the stomach for a war over Taiwan?

Tensions are rising...

The chances of an Invasion before Late spring are 0%
The weather in the Taiwan straights isn't suited to a landing force!
Seasonal weather pattern.

Early Summer then the gane is back on.

It's not true that:

If Taiwan doesn't declare independence, no war. It's as simple as that..... Both sides can sit there like this forever. with no war.

That's how it was for 70 years. Now it has changed.

I spoke to a Taiwanese girl this week, teaching online. Fighter jets are flying over her home EVERY DAY to scatter the Chinese airspace incursions. Do you want to sit forever with fighter jets flying over your home? All of this is going largely ignored, it wasn't even mentioned in that Express article which just makes it sound like posturing.

The risk of conflict is now at its highest level in decades. PLA aircraft are flying menacingly towards airspace around Taiwan almost daily, sometimes launching multiple sorties on the same day. Since mid-September, Chinese warplanes have Flown more than 100 of these missions, according to a Reuters compilation of flight data drawn from official statements by Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense. The data shows that in periods when political tension across the Taiwan Strait peaks, China sends more aircraft, including some of its most potent fighters and bombers.

...
There has been a "clear shift" this year in Beijing's posture, a senior Taiwanese security official responsible for intelligence on China told Reuters. Chinese military and government agencies have switched from decades of "theoretical talk" about taking Taiwan by force to debating and working on plans for possible military action, the official said.

news.trust.org...

For some reason the mainstream news is ignoring this

They know the Harris administration won't protect Taiwan.

China started WW3 when they attacked the world with COVID

originally posted by: slatesteam

originally posted by: XXXN3O
a reply to: Never Despise

This sums up how I feel about it...

Folks need to stop listening to the media.

Wtf does that guy say?

He said (translated)...

"Did you? Yes?" but meaning it sarcastically.

originally posted by: Never Despise

TAIWAN's foreign minister has said the nation "cannot rule out the possibility" of war with China amid fears of the eastern superpower "launching a military attack".

www.express.co.uk...

How warrented are the fears of the Taiwanese?

Would China take advantage of transition confusion in the US, or perceived weakness of a Biden administration, to achieve a long-standing goal of "unification"?

Would America have the stomach for a war over Taiwan?

Tensions are rising...

As anybody who knows anything about China will tell you, China doesn't believe in first strikes. It has a perpetual victim mentality that it applies to pretty much everything and launching a first strike would contradict this.

China will literally wait for another country to nuke it before launching its own nukes. This mentality is that engrained. It absolutely cannot be seen as an aggressor in it's own mind.

China also promotes the narrative that Taiwan is, and always has been, part of China. So there is no need for them to attack because they'd simply be attacking themselves, and doing so would mean admitting that Taiwan wasn't part of China.

IF Taiwan sits there and doesn't rock the boat, China absolutely won't move against it. This is set in stone and demonstrated through 50 years of inactivity. If Taiwan maintains the status quo so will China. No ifs and no buts.

The only way that there will be war is if Taiwan makes the first move.

originally posted by: Never Despise
They know the Harris administration won't protect Taiwan.

Harris won't have a choice. If Congress votes to respond then Harris would have to sit there and watch Biden go to war with China.

originally posted by: tanstaafl

originally posted by: Never Despise
a reply to: tinktinktink

I meant, would the US go to war against China to protect Taiwan.

Under Biden we would go to war against Taiwan for China.

Or rather, we sould simply sit by and let China consume Taiwan.

Technically speaking, Taiwan is already a part of China, so this would be a civil war.

I know that it looks like Taiwan is a free and independent state with its own democratically elected government, but legally, it isn't.

originally posted by: AaarghZombies

originally posted by: tanstaafl

originally posted by: Never Despise
a reply to: tinktinktink

I meant, would the US go to war against China to protect Taiwan.

Under Biden we would go to war against Taiwan for China.

Or rather, we sould simply sit by and let China consume Taiwan.

zzzzzzzzzzz

edit on 1-3-2021 by XXXN3O because: (no reason given)