I'm no "climate scientist' - help me understand this (BOM's outlook suggests a wet summer)

a reply to: myselfaswell

Quite interesting, thanks for the additional info!

originally posted by: 1947boomer

originally posted by: IAMALLYETALLIAM


So which one is it? Is the world getting blisteringly hot or cooler than previous summers with drought breaking rain?

Admittedly, I only have a highschool education and am certainly no Scientist™ so am a little baffled by all of the failed predictions (is New York City under water yet?) and attributing both hot and cold weather to klimate change.

Anyone have an idea?

The La Niña pattern is not attributed to climate change. It was there before and will be there after the rise in average temperature due to build up of CO2. It is a cycle driven mainly by sea surface temperatures in the South Pacific.

The La Niña/El Nino cycle oscillates between higher than average rainfall and lower than average rainfall in those areas of the planet that are affected by it. That pattern is superimposed on a background of steadily increasing average temperatures. In any given year, the amount of cooling due to La Niña can be 5 degrees C or more and that can offset the amount of warming due to CO2. The total amount of average warming due to CO2 buildup right now is only about 1 degree C, so the La Niña cooling can easily overcome that.

Here in Northern California we are experiencing the same pattern as in Australia. We’ve just had the hottest summer on record with the worst wildfires but now we are in a La Niña cycle and the winter will probably be wetter and cooler than usual.

The climate models are getting more accurate all the time because computer power continues to increase and we have more and better measurements of the environment. No model predicted that New York would be under water by now.

Another thing to keep in mind is that just because the climate models predict that the average temperature of the planet will rise that doesn’t mean that every place on the planet will rise by the same amount everywhere and all the time. Some places will warm faster than others. Right now, the Arctic and Antarctic are warming faster than lower latitudes. One consequence of that is that the polar vortex winds cause colder than average temperatures to migrate farther from the poles down to lower latitudes in the winter. Both the US and Europe have experienced that several times in the last decade or so.

The one general rule of global warming is that in the future, almost no place on the planet will continue to have the same climate it has now.

Thank you for sharing your thoughts and insights.

The La Nina bit is making more sense now and I am remembering things from when I looked in to it years ago.

I'm very skeptical that climate change/ global warming, whatever it will be called tomorrow is the apocalyptic catastrophe about to bear down on us though. I think it's a natural cycle that we may be exacerbating to some degree.

a reply to: IAMALLYETALLIAM
You must understand that when you had the hot summers the nut jobs, oopps sorry the climate scientist, were calling it "Global Warming" as the scary words. But the found out that sometimes rain falls so they changed their tag line to "Climate Change" because it gave them a wider choice of scenarios to frighten people with.
I know this because I'm a scientist because I've got a white coat. I see you haven't purchased a white coat yet so you can't give scientific answers. Get a white coat immediately.

I’ll explain it to you very simply.

Anthropomorphic (Man made) climate change is FAKE

Just a money grab.

a reply to: IAMALLYETALLIAM

Things are definitely changing but the Why is not fully known.

As a simple example, ocean temperatures. Previously, ocean temperatures are measured at the surface zone (which extends down several hundred metres). Whilst this is useful for knowing surface water temperature, it is no indicator of deep ocean temperatures - and they are the ones that drive ocean currents and weather patterns. The reason only surface temps have been measured is simple - access and cost. Sea temps have been based on ship samples (commercial as well as scientific shipping).

There have been occasional deep sea temp samples but they are individual cases because of the difficulties involved and the costs involved. Recently, there have been efforts to start sampling these deep sea temps with a year long study and the results were published within the last couple of months. The results aren't good. Temps have risen something like 0.2 degrees (or less) - which sounds trivial but is actually associated with a scale of multi millenia. I am on my phone at the mo so will try to dig out and post the report tomorrow.

Essentially though, it is definitive proof of major changes in the oceans. What we don't yet know is if this is due to extremely long scale natural cycles or us messing up the planet.

originally posted by: crayzeed
a reply to: IAMALLYETALLIAM
You must understand that when you had the hot summers the nut jobs, oopps sorry the climate scientist, were calling it "Global Warming" as the scary words. But the found out that sometimes rain falls so they changed their tag line to "Climate Change" because it gave them a wider choice of scenarios to frighten people with.
I know this because I'm a scientist because I've got a white coat. I see you haven't purchased a white coat yet so you can't give scientific answers. Get a white coat immediately.

You are confusing the message being offered with the words being used to describe it at different times in the education cycle.

The words weren't changed. The focus of the message changed.

Early on there was a lot of talk about the 'Greenhouse Effect'. The Greenhouse Effect, caused by an increase in 'Greenhouse Gases' (CO2, Methane, etc), which can be easily measured by the way, resulted in the Earths atmosphere retaining more of the Sun's energy than it had done in recent geologic history.

An increase in energy is also known as 'warming', thus we started talking about 'Global Warming' to make the information easier to understand and we can measure it easily. Now Global Warming has its consequence just as the Greenhouse has its consequence. Global Warming results in "Climate Change".

And Climate Change has real, impactful, consequences: more and more powerful hurricanes (and storms of all kinds actually), fires, floods, droughts, sea level rise, jet stream movements, plant and animal extinctions. And this too is measurable - though not 100% specifically assignable at every point. It is also true that there is more to Climate than just one aspect of increased warming. As mentioned else where, El Nino/La Nina is just one cycle that can mask some aspects of the Climate Change, but that 'masking' is not the same as 'defeating'. When La Nina results in a cycle of warmer weather it is doing so with a background of Global Warming. So instead of La Nina giving a temperature rise of say, 2 degrees, the result is more like 3 degrees. The 2 degrees is part of a cycle, the background is a ramp that is currently rising through 1 degree on its way to who knows where.

But at no point has the 'problem' been renamed. The focus of the messaging has changed as the level of understanding has changed.

The Greenhouse Effect LEADS TO Global Warming LEADS TO Climate Change. Not different names, different focus points.

originally posted by: crayzeed
a reply to: IAMALLYETALLIAM
You must understand that when you had the hot summers the nut jobs, oopps sorry the climate scientist, were calling it "Global Warming" as the scary words. But the found out that sometimes rain falls so they changed their tag line to "Climate Change" because it gave them a wider choice of scenarios to frighten people with.
I know this because I'm a scientist because I've got a white coat. I see you haven't purchased a white coat yet so you can't give scientific answers. Get a white coat immediately.

Bahahah i love this reply. So true about the woops ... we cant call it global warming so we will call it climate change.
Like other posters have said, its cyclical and as i am 53 i believe i have been around long enough to have a 'lived' record of climate.
I think another factor is that people 'feel' the hot and cold more these days with most buildings, shopping centres and houses utalising air conditioning. So when on a stinking hot day here in Australia you go from inside to outside, of course it is going to feel hotter.
Just my thoughts.