Why many Big Time Liberals are worried that Trump will win

Polling data for already cast ballots are showing that about 86% of all Democrats are voting early and only about 55% for Republicans, and this is why some famous liberals are sounding the alarm about a Trump victory. The big problem is that in many swing states the differences are very close and there is still a good amount of outstanding votes for Nov 3 that will be super heavy republican. Here is an example.

FL
The Democrats will have about 150,000 vote lead going into Nov 3, but there will only be about a total of 45% cast early. What this means is the 65% not cast yet will be heavy Republican favorite with a 45% to 14% that will most likely still vote on Nov 3. When we talk super voters...those who always vote and vote for just one party the Dems only have 282,000 left to vote while the republicans still have 514,000 still to vote.

This is an example that we see the same as we look state to state... The red wave will most likely hit hard on Nov 3 and many on the left are seeing it already.

Ignore the exit polls.
Trump wins.

originally posted by: IAMTAT
Ignore the exit polls.
Trump wins.

The liberal early vote is only around 40 million, conservatives is about 30 million and the liberals have basically blew their wad already with hardly anything left for Nov 3... We are looking at about 150 million total and so if we split up the 80 million still out there liberals will only get about 20 to 30% of them.

So in Az where they will end up with about 3 million total votes and the liberals will go into Nov 3 only 20k ahead with a huge chunk of that 3 million still left to be casted on Nov 3, as another example.

Pennsylvania, 7 million total votes and only 1.5 million have been cast. Many in that state do not have faith in the mail in, so that state will have a big Nov 3 turnout. The Democrats will have about 700,000 lead, but once again 5 million open votes will heavily favor republicans.

a reply to: Xtrozero

If 45% were cast early and there’s 65% more yet to cast than I think whoever is in charge of this poll can’t add

a reply to: Thenail

Of the 2016 voters I believe.

a reply to: Thenail

No, they were factoring in the dead vote.

There are some registered Democrats that are not voting for Biden, in fact quite a few of the moderates are voting against Biden, either Trump or another candidate. Democrats don't want to lose their guns or pay way higher taxes, Biden's campaign is not very smart.

Most people remember the corruption when government was bigger, just think how expensive Biden will make things directly and indirectly. Hopefully if he does win, the Senate will stay Republican held and the house will gain enough seats to make it almost even, some Democrat congressmen will have to vote with the Republicans if their states citizens tell them they do not want something or they will get recalled quickly and be out of a job.

I know with colleges being closed in so many places the 18-24 year old demographic is depressed. They were counting on it being about 30% of early returns in Wisconsin, and it's 3%.

That's important because that demographic is largely college kids who will vote heavily for Democrats ... *if* they're rounded up and bused to the polls to vote. With them not being in school, they aren't being taken to the polls like they have been, so not as many are voting.

Trump is going to pull a decent chunk of the black vote.

The left's covid strategy back fired in that it is progressives who are afraid to go to the polls.

I really think this is going to be a Trump blow out.

First election where the incumbent is having states taken away despite winning them last time. I have never seen that before. A real slight of hand. So all of a sudden, everyone that voted for him is switching sides in droves. Highly unlikely. They know the virus is not his fault and he did all he could. It's a global crisis and nobody has the answers.

The media is also ignoring the power of these rallies. Right now, over 120K watching this MI one. Insane and that's rally after rally. This is not counting the local makeshift rallies in town after town, many in left cities.

I guess he could lose but just not seeing it. It would blow my mind at this point if he loss. The energy is intoxicating and motivating people who don't normally vote to get out and vote for him. That's not happening for Biden. His campaign is bitter, cold, industrial and not able to generate any power.

originally posted by: ketsuko
a reply to: Thenail

No, they were factoring in the dead vote.

The dead always vote early or their votes appear after the polls close, very spooky.

That said, I think the early dead vote is showing way too small a lead for Dems to overcome when the actual living voters ballots get counted in swing states. Too small a lead for the late dead vote to overcome.

The media and pollsters are getting very nervous for good reason. Trump is walking through the finish line on this one.

Polling has been BS for years, but this second POTUS election where they were way off may put the last nail in the coffin (nyuk nyuk) of pollsters being valid.

originally posted by: ketsuko
I know with colleges being closed in so many places the 18-24 year old demographic is depressed. They were counting on it being about 30% of early returns in Wisconsin, and it's 3%.

That's important because that demographic is largely college kids who will vote heavily for Democrats ... *if* they're rounded up and bused to the polls to vote. With them not being in school, they aren't being taken to the polls like they have been, so not as many are voting.

In Georgia the early vote or mail in the 55 and up has swamped the 18-34 by over a million votes.

a reply to: Stupidsecrets

The thing everyone has to remember is that we will more or less wake up knowing that Biden has a lead everywhere thanks to early voting and mail-ins. The press will beat on that drum trying to keep people from going to vote. Trump voters have to be so determined to vote that they will crawl over broken glass and stand in line for hours if need be to make sure they cast that ballot.

If that happens, then projections are that Trump should have the support to overhaul Biden in most every swing state.

But even then, they will contest every one in all likelihood trying to cast as much doubt on the results as they can for their purposes going forward.

originally posted by: Edumakated
Trump is going to pull a decent chunk of the black vote.

The left's covid strategy back fired in that it is progressives who are afraid to go to the polls.

I really think this is going to be a Trump blow out.

I don't think people are giving enough weight to this and this is a very astute observation, which is what I have come to expect from you. Democrats usually hold a decent lead in key states during early voting and in 2020 they are, by a large margin, more afraid of COVID. If anything, if the Dems were going to win, we should have seen an overwhelming number in the early voting in favor of Democrats.

a reply to: Thenail

Dont worry. I understand.

a reply to: Xtrozero

🙋🏼‍♀️ I know! I know! Because Biden is absolutely horrible in every way!

a reply to: Ksihkehe

In a sense you could call this an unofficial referendum on coronavirus lock downs. Those who vote early and vote Biden are for it, those who go out tomorrow? We want out and we want to be free and we feel like Trump is more likely to give us that sooner.

originally posted by: Ksihkehe

originally posted by: Edumakated
Trump is going to pull a decent chunk of the black vote.

The left's covid strategy back fired in that it is progressives who are afraid to go to the polls.

I really think this is going to be a Trump blow out.

I don't think people are giving enough weight to this and this is a very astute observation, which is what I have come to expect from you. Democrats usually hold a decent lead in key states during early voting and in 2020 they are, by a large margin, more afraid of COVID. If anything, if the Dems were going to win, we should have seen an overwhelming number in the early voting in favor of Democrats.

But this is not a normal election year.

Mail in ballots have never ever played such a role in a Presidential Election , If by some turn of fate the mail in ballots back fire on the Left then it's over .

But if they are harvesting these ballots the way I suspect they are , this Election will be decided by the courts because if it turns out the difference maker for Biden is indeed mail in ballots , then in come the lawyers and it will take weeks to figure out who is President .

Trump needs a CLEAR win a very CLEAR win , anything else is gonna be trouble.

I keep getting the sinking feeling that CCP lap dog Biden is gonna win.

12:10 PM EST Trump is still drawing huge crowds in Grand Rapids Michigan and has got 188,000 watching online. If this man loses it isn't going to be because he was outworked. You got to admire that as he has said in the last few days, a lot of men would have not run again after all that's been thrown at him, but he loves this country and knows he can do better than Joe and Kamala ever could. He is one of those persons that believes in himself so much and then he works hard to make it happen.

originally posted by: Ksihkehe

originally posted by: Edumakated
Trump is going to pull a decent chunk of the black vote.

The left's covid strategy back fired in that it is progressives who are afraid to go to the polls.

I really think this is going to be a Trump blow out.

I don't think people are giving enough weight to this and this is a very astute observation, which is what I have come to expect from you. Democrats usually hold a decent lead in key states during early voting and in 2020 they are, by a large margin, more afraid of COVID. If anything, if the Dems were going to win, we should have seen an overwhelming number in the early voting in favor of Democrats.

I agree. I think Trump’s win is going to be so obvious that even the left’s cheating won’t be enough to let them even try to pull any contesting shenanigans.

Ketsuko is right on as usual though, in that we will wake up to “Biden is so far in the lead! Everywhere!” and the sh!t media will beat that drum all day. It won’t work.