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originally posted by: face23785
So a buddy of mine made the casual observation that he wondered what the average age was of people dying from Covid. It got me thinking, I don't think I've seen that reported anywhere.
I tried to Google it but I gave up after a few minutes. The number has to be pretty high, so it's not the kind of thing that's gonna be widely reported. MSNBC, CNN, etc. aren't gonna wanna report something that makes people think "Damn, I'm not really at much risk." I'm sure it's out there somewhere but I wasn't gonna keep digging for it. So I decided to see what else I could find.
I'm sure most of you have seen this page that has the CDC Covid data. Obviously it's not 100% up to date, but it's relatively current. So I grabbed this chart:
I uploaded the chart because there are multiple charts on that page and they are updated daily, so I wanted you to be able to rework the exact numbers I was working with.
Now, you cannot calculate the average age of the deaths from this. However, you can calculate a lower limit for the average using a very simple method. All you have to do is assume everyone who died in each age group was the lowest age in that group. In other words, let's assume everyone in the 25-34 age group that died was 25. Assume everyone in the 35-44 age group was 35. And so on. By doing this, you can calculate the lowest possible number that the average age of all the deaths could be. Obviously not everyone who died in each age group was the lowest age in that group, so the true average has to be higher than what I'm going to calculate, but it's impossible to be any lower than what we get. So let's see what happens.
*I combined the "Under 1" and "1-4" categories for simplicity.*
41 deaths that were 1 year of age = 41
39 deaths that were 5 = 195
388 deaths that were 15 = 5,820
1,649 deaths that were 25 = 41,225
4,262 deaths that were 35 = 149,170
11,252 deaths that were 45 = 506,340
27,034 that were 55 = 1,486,870
45,951 that were 65 = 2,986,815
56,409 that were 75 = 4,230,675
and 65,303 that were 85 = 5,550,755
So now we add all those up and get 14,957,906 years. We divide that by the total number of deaths on that chart, 212,328.
Our result is: 70.447 years.
I was surprised. I knew it was going to be high, I didn't expect it to be THAT high.
THE AVERAGE AGE OF PEOPLE WHO HAVE DIED OF COVID IN THE UNITED STATES IS OVER 70 YEARS OLD!!
And the real average is likely significantly older than that because obviously the assumption I made to do the calculation is not realistic. However, the average age CANNOT be lower than what I calculated, it can only be higher. The distribution inside each age group likely trends toward the higher end of each group, so that would skew the average up quite a bit I would imagine. Perhaps someone with better math skills than me can do some kind of adjustment on it to get a closer approximation.
But damn, over 70? Now tell me NO ONE in the media has done this work? Or dug into the raw data and calculated the actual average. And you know exactly what happened. Oh, damn, this result isn't gonna help us fearmonger, so we won't report this.
ETA: I ran the numbers using the middle of each age range instead of the bottom, and the average winds up being over 75 years of age. And even that is likely a little low.
originally posted by: TKDRL
Couldn't we just put people to sleep before they have a chance to die?
originally posted by: DanDanDat
Are you suggesting that the people most at risk from Covid are also the people least at risk from the measures being taken to combat covid?
Where do the leaders who enact the measures fall in that spectrum?
originally posted by: chr0naut
originally posted by: Lumenari
originally posted by: chr0naut
a reply to: face23785
What do you propose that could prevent people from being 70 years old?
And what do you propose that would keep people from dying of old age?