Trump Vs Biden Predictions

a reply to: MykeNukem

Trump will legitimately win, but the Dems will cheat and keep counting votes until he loses...

that to me opens up a whole new can of worms thats probably slightly off topic but I would have a few questions.

Firstly why you believe that and what sources are backing up your opinion?

Secondly voter fraud is very rare so what makes you think its going to happen in 2020?

I do think there was a lot of complacency on the Dems side in 2016.

Many believed that Trump didn’t have a chance.

I expect less complacency this time with anti-Trump voters.

BUT — will that apply to all states?

originally posted by: spiritualarchitect

originally posted by: OtherSideOfTheCoin
Thats 4 years old and its a totally different election

Go to page 3. I am showing that REAL WORLD NUMBERS beat the polls just like they did 4 years ago.

If you have good objective data points that indicate a trump win I would gladly discuss them with you if you would kindly post them on this thread.

a reply to: OtherSideOfTheCoin

It's politics, there are no reliable objective data points. Never has been and never will be.

a reply to: OtherSideOfTheCoin

Byden has it in the bag. He doesn't even need to leave his house. It's a shoe in. Procedural at this point. You laid it out in your OP.

Harris win, I mean Biden/Harris win. Sorry.

originally posted by: OtherSideOfTheCoin

originally posted by: mtnshredder
Biden SUCKS for the American people, period.

I have faith the American people will pick who’s best for them and this country and it ain’t Biden.

Trump 2020 BABY!

I am not saying Biden will be god or bad (or Trump for that matter).

I am curious to know why you believe that Biden won't win, is it just faith and anecdotal.

As a brit am very interested in getting the views of people actually "on the ground"

I just told you why he won’t win, he sucks for America in every way possible and the people “on the ground” see it. Do I really need to expand on that statement?

I think Biden will win because so many voters look to the MSM to tell them how to think.

I hope I'm surprised by the outcome.

originally posted by: Annee
I do think there was a lot of complacency on the Dems side in 2016.

Many believed that Trump didn’t have a chance.

I expect less complacency this time with anti-Trump voters.

BUT — will that apply to all states?

Yeah this was one of the things I was reading a lot about in relation to polls.

One of the interesting things that one of the links In the OP talks about was that in 2016 the dems thought it was such a sure thing that lots of them just didn't vote where as for the Trump supporters as the underdogs felt they had to vote. They also talked about how the underestimated the number of "quiet Trump supporters" and have calibrated the polls for this with a slight bias in favour of Trump.

This apparently means that if we were looking at theses polls in 2020, if Biden has a 4% lead in a state (which I believe he does in Florida) it would have been a 6% lead in 2016.

This is interesting because it could mean one of two things, either the polls are underestimating now the support for the dems in which case we get a massive Biden victory. Or they haven't calibrated enough in which case we get some of the shock we had in 2016.

Here's teh map I expect to see a few days after election night:

originally posted by: beyondknowledge
a reply to: OtherSideOfTheCoin

It's politics, there are no reliable objective data points. Never has been and never will be.

So you don't actually have any data that backs up your view that Trump will win?

a reply to: UKTruth

I'm not going to claim to be an expert on every state in the union but I will say that any electoral map that only has indiana leaning towards trump can't be taken seriously.

originally posted by: OtherSideOfTheCoin
I am firmly of the belief that based on current data and expert opinion that Joe Bien will win the 2020 election

Well, you're sure going to be in for some embarrassment.

a reply to: OtherSideOfTheCoin

Trump will win the popular vote, the Electoral College vote.

Biden will become president.

originally posted by: trollz

originally posted by: OtherSideOfTheCoin
I am firmly of the belief that based on current data and expert opinion that Joe Bien will win the 2020 election

Well, you're sure going to be in for some embarrassment.

I won't be embarrassed if I am wrong.

I am trying to base my view on the available information at this time, if am wrong, if the data and expert opinion that has underpinned my prediction that Joe Biden will win then so be it. Am okay with that.

originally posted by: OtherSideOfTheCoin

originally posted by: Annee
I do think there was a lot of complacency on the Dems side in 2016.

Many believed that Trump didn’t have a chance.

I expect less complacency this time with anti-Trump voters.

BUT — will that apply to all states?

Yeah this was one of the things I was reading a lot about in relation to polls.

One of the interesting things that one of the links In the OP talks about was that in 2016 the dems thought it was such a sure thing that lots of them just didn't vote where as for the Trump supporters as the underdogs felt they had to vote. They also talked about how the underestimated the number of "quiet Trump supporters" and have calibrated the polls for this with a slight bias in favour of Trump.

This apparently means that if we were looking at theses polls in 2020, if Biden has a 4% lead in a state (which I believe he does in Florida) it would have been a 6% lead in 2016.

This is interesting because it could mean one of two things, either the polls are underestimating now the support for the dems in which case we get a massive Biden victory. Or they haven't calibrated enough in which case we get some of the shock we had in 2016.

Right.

And 538 said they (accumulated polls) underestimated the uneducated male voter — who voted primarily for Trump.

I did read their article on how all the poles have made adjustments for what they missed in 2016.

It leans Biden — but, those Electoral votes are tricky.

With sadness, I remember the days you could have a serious discussion on ATS.

a reply to: OtherSideOfTheCoin

I don't, and I am certain you don't ether. Any data you have is biased. One side has all the information outlets on their side and this makes all information biased. You have no reliable unbiased information to base this thread on.

originally posted by: OtherSideOfTheCoin
a reply to: MykeNukem

Trump will legitimately win, but the Dems will cheat and keep counting votes until he loses...

that to me opens up a whole new can of worms thats probably slightly off topic but I would have a few questions.

Firstly why you believe that and what sources are backing up your opinion?

Secondly voter fraud is very rare so what makes you think its going to happen in 2020?

Voter fraud is not rare. It is done on the local level. All you have to do is pay attention to what democrats have been pushing for when it comes to mail-in voting to see what their game plan is.

Even naked Hunter with a crackpipe can't help Trump.

Biden does not have anything new to offer, and what should have been a walkover for Trump, has Turned exactly the opposite.

Even you diehard Trump fans got to addmit that Trump is only one to blame if he loses.

The guys talk so much # that you can't tell when he's joking or lying.
Remember when he said that a vaccine would be ready mid October?!
Just one small example of bs in the tsunami of bs statements.

Prediction. Senile B for the win although its going to be closer than the polls suggest.

a reply to: beyondknowledge

I don't, and I am certain you don't ether.

I do its in the OP.

Any data you have is biased

Hang on you just said I don't have any data and now your saying I do have data but its bias.

The aggregate polls are not really that bias, some are but thats why looking at the aggregate data is a good idea rather than cherry picking the polls that will support a certain point of view. For example if I just look at Trafalgar and Rassmutin poll then Trump is a clear winner, but that would be cherry picking.

Anyway like I said, am not really interested in changing your mind, am more interested in your view and why you believe what you believe.

a reply to: OtherSideOfTheCoin

I think the giveaway on who will win is the down ballot elections and where each party is being forced to spend money.