I have often said I like to use ATS as a way to consolidate my own learning and this is really what this thread it, I have spent a bit of time
researching the numerous predictions for who will win the 2020 US Presidential election. This thread therefore isn’t so much my own predictions
although to get to the point I am firmly of the belief that based on current data and expert opinion that Joe Bien will win the 2020 election and this
thread will explain why I hold that belief.
I am going to look at several indicators used to predict a presidential win and I am going to start with what the betting odd are saying. If you put
some cold hard cash down which candidate is most likely to get you a return on your money and which is going to send it down the preverbal sink.
Now it should be noted that betting odds change drastically over time, and as the election gets closer one would expect the odds to get closer. As
GQ reported earlier this month Biden has consistently
been the bookies favourite to win the election, they quote betfair’s odds showing Biden having a 69% chance of winning as opposed to Trump who has
only a 31% chance of winning. Over the month these odds have closed slightly with
now giving Trump about a 36% chance of winning and Biden a 63% chance. So, the bookies are clearly indicating that they expect a Bien win.
However, as this link from RealClearPolitcs demonstrates the
bookies got it very, very wrong back in 2016. Therefore, while I think it’s interesting to note that the bookies are favouring Trump it perhaps not
the most reliable indicator although its reasonable to assume that bookies are accounting for this. The bookies where hurt back in 2016 so it is worth
remember that they are going to be more cautious this time round and could be bias towards trump to offset any potential loses.
So, what about another indicator of presidential performance, expert opinion is another that is often sited and again can be troublesome.
Unsurprisingly the consensus is that Biden should comfortably win however, that was the consensus back in 2016 and most of the experts got it wrong.
Yet as Newsweek point out there where
four key experts who correctly predicted Trump winning, they point out that two of those experts now predict a Biden will win, one of them predict
Trump and the final expert calls it as a toss-up.
Allan Lichtman, a professor of history is probably the most well-known of these experts with his “13-keys” model which has correctly predicted
every election since 1984. He correctly predicted that Trump would win in 2016 and now he predicts that Trump will lose. The video bellow is his
prediction in his own words.
Next we have the views of helmut norpoth a political scientist from the University of Michigan whose model has predicted 5 of the last 6 presidential
elections but has also been used applied to every election since 1912 and has accurately predicted the result 25 times out of 27 elections. According
to Norpoths Primary Model Trump has a 91% chance of winning.
The PRIMARY MODEL gives President Donald Trump a 91% chance of winning the 2020 presidential election, with Democrat Joe Biden having just a 9%
chance. Trump would get 362 electoral votes, Biden 176. This forecast is unconditional and final; hence not subject to any updating. It was first
posted March 2, 2020, on Twitter.
I will not get into the details of the other two, I am sure there are others that you could pick and choose from but expert opinion in general seems
to swing towards Biden however this is not universal and it would be unwise I think to discount the Primary Model.
This is where things get a little complicated, often the markets can offer up a good indication of who will win based on how the markets bet. The
first interesting thing to look at here is historical precedent. According to research by the
Socioeconomic institute Trump has an 87% chance
of winning (There is a big BUT to this coming up) they report that:
16 times in U.S. history when an incumbent president ran for reelection and the stock market was up more than 20% in the preceding three years. In 14
of those 16 times, the incumbent won reelection, giving a success rate of 87%. If the trend holds, Mr. Trump could be No. 15.
And now for that big BUT. Saying that 87% of the time when the market is up the incumbent wins is not the same as saying Trump has an 87% change in my
view. Furthermore, this is based purely on the stock-market, it assumes that when the market is up the social mood is generally favourable towards the
incumbent. In the 2020 race this is inconsistent with other data points. It remains an interesting trend however and is again another point in favour
of Trump winning.
There are other indicators in the markets that seem to suggest either a Biden win or a contented
vote. CNBC asked 20 market
strategists how they were betting and of them 14 precited that Biden would win. In another similar
survey 30 market strategists where
asked their views on the vote 12 reported that Biden would win, 7 said trump and 11 said it would be contested.
The idea of a contested outcome is quite common when looking to the markets for a prediction and its lead to
mixed signals coming from the markets regarding who might win. This issue seems to be uncertainty over how contested the results will be,
one report gives
only a 16% chance that either candidate will concede by the end of election week and even gives a 4% chance of Nancy Peolsi being sworn in.
Overall the markets look like they are swaying towards Biden but are preparing for a long contested vote.
So I know this one is controversial, many reading this will say that the polls where wrong in 2016 and you would be right. What might surprise you
though is that they weren’t far off
RealClearPolitics keep an archive of
the polls in the run up to the 2016 election. On the 5th of November Clinton only had a 1.2% lead over trump, and on the day, it was 3.2% with quite a
few individual pollsters calling the election in Trumps favour. Yes, early on in the campaign there where talks of a Clinton landslide however as the
election drew closer both candidates were seen as
unfavourable and the polls tightened up. This was
reflected on election with Clinton winning the popular vote but losing in the electoral college, in some states Trump won but by less than 2%.
For anyone who is interested in reading more about the 2016 polling and changes that I have been made I would highly recommend this
Now with that out of the way, as I am sure most of you know the polls are swinging massively in Biden’s favour. At the time of writing this he has a
9.2% margin over Trump and this has been fairly consistent for most of the month with almost
60 Million voters who have already
voted (mostly democrats). I don’t really want to get too deep into the polls because it’s a subject that could have its own thread (or forum!) but
there are some interesting things to takeaway.
The biggest one of interest is looking at project ThirtyFiftyEight who are
have gave Biden an 86% chance of winning based on aggregated polling. Its state by state though that things get interesting, Trump is leading in
Florida, he is expected to retake Michigan and Pennsylvania Assuming he doesn’t lose any states this would secure him a win. Not only that though
it’s possible he could win in Texas and Georgia with Ohio also looking closely.
Like I said above I don’t want to drag this thread out talking about polls but they’re clearly in favour of Biden.
In looking at various indicators and this thread is but only a snapshot of stuff I have been looking at over the past few days it seems to me that
while Trump is still very much in the race, Biden is the likely candidate to win. Therefore, I believe Joe Biden will win the election.
What is less clear is by how much he will win, some put him at 300-400 college votes, I personally think this is a little too high and that they are
still underestimating Trump voters. I think it is more likely that there will be a contested vote than any one candidate winning by a landslide.
With that said I am curious to know how others predict this election will go and why?
its a bit more than just polling data, and like I said in my final thoughts I wouldn't say he doesn't have a chance, but if you forced me to bet my
house on it then I would have to bet that Biden would win based of the research I have done.
Am curious if you view it differently and if so why.
originally posted by: beyondknowledge
Everyone said Trump was loosing last time. It is a good sign that the results will repeat. Please keep encouraging more votes for Trump.
I think that last time its important though to remember that the polls where closer.
Both Clinton and Trump had a very negative favourability rating, there where way more undecided voters.
I don't have the exact stats to hand but I think I red that overall Clinton was something like -12 on favourability and there where like 15% undecided
voters. Now its like 5% undecided and has a +5 favourability with Trumps at -10. You can check those numbers yourself if you want.
I live in a uber liberal community and don't see too many Biden signs. I saw the same thing with Hillary in 2016. On the other hand, Obama signs
were everywhere in 2012. This let me know Trump had a legitimate chance.
You look at the Trump rallies vs Biden/Harris rallies. One sells out stadiums while the other can barely fill the cafeteria at an old folks home.
I also think the polls aren't capturing the secret Trump voters. People see how crazy the left gets attacking people and a lot of people are voting
for Trump on the downlow.
I think its totally fair to criticise the accuracy of pollsters but when your trying to make some kind of objective prediction its one of the factors
to take into account. In this thread I have looked a four main indicators and used them to formulate my view that Biden will win.
If you choose not to trust them then thats up to you am not really trying to convince anyway, we will find out soon enough rather I am curious as to
what other people think will happen and why. I would be even more interested if you had some objective data points to support your prediction.
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