126 days later, how do you think the pandemic will end?

In these twilight days of ATS, the last moments of this community, the last gasps of our time together, I have been polling and querying what the community on ATS thinks of the covid-19 pandemic and what it would take to change your mind. That was my original question: what would it take for the respondent ATSers to change their mind about the covid-19 outbreak. Then I followed up asking if you had changed your mind a number of times. I will not ask that question anymore. Why? Because ATS' minds have been made up and no amount of data, no comments, no eloquent verbage either way will change your mind. Almost all of you decided long ago what you thought the covid-19 outbreak was and haven't budged since.

I am not here to condemn nor praise. I am here because I am curious. ATS may be on its last legs, but the people will go on and while you are hardly a representative cross section of Americana (and, yes, we are mostly yanqi here), you are an interesting bunch and do have some fascinating insights. And, hence, I do still have questions. This time, just one, really, and I'll ask it at the end of the post. Before I do, let's have a little update on the pandemic in the United States.

As of now, the time of writing, there are over 158,000 dead of the covid-19 virus by official stats of the states and counties of the United States[1]. Since January 19th, the first official reported case of covid-19 in the United States, the US has averaged a daily mortality rate of over 803. The total cases at this point are over 4,816,000 people. The total recovered is over 2,380,000. The mortality ratio has dropped to 6% of cases. If the mortality/recovery ratio holds true, then we could have another 136k dead before those current cases are 'closed.'

It should be noted the total cases is not the same as the total infections. Cases are those diagnosed by doctors. The vast majority of infections are 'submedical,' not requiring treatment and many are even asymptomatic. Those last are actually the most dangerous as they are wildly infectious without ever knowing it. Reports state about 80% of infections are submedical. If that is true, then the US has had over 22 million infections so far.

The center of the pandemic has massively shifted. Originally, the NorthEast - centered on New York City - was the epicenter. California originally flattened the curve with its preemptive shutdowns to only become one of the greatest centers of the disease. Los Angeles and the surrounding counties being the hot spot. Florida also became a massive hotspot for the virus. Texas, Florida and California have surpassed NY for the total cases. Per capita cases, the worst three states are Louisiana, Arizona and New York; however, Florida will surpass New York in the near future. Per capita deaths, NY and NJ remain the worst by a lot. Ironically, California and Texas are below the national average for per capita deaths and cases.

This pandemic has been no stranger to controversies. The denial of the disease being real followed by the accusations it was an escapee from a Chinese lab or an American bioweapon. Hydroxychloroquine decided to take their place when the public + media got bored of those and that in turn has been replaced by the outrage some have over wearing masks. Florida was accused of covering up its total cases and deaths by one of the people running the site for the state. Another of the weird and latest controversies here in the US is the Trump administration ordering hospitals to bypass the CDC to send info directly to the White House[2]. The whole reason for the CDC is to combat diseases like covid, so...wth?

There is some positive news. As stated, the mortality rate is dropping. We are down to 6% from 10% in the early in the epidemic in the US. The virus has been mutating and the selection pressure may be for less lethality and more contagious.

More good news is the first vaccines have entered phase 3 testing[3]. There are four different vaccines being developed and tested. All four have been contracted by the government as a preparatory gamble to manufacture 300M doses each before they are proven. If they are effective, the government will have a vaccine ready immediately and potentially multiple should there be a reason. Phase 3 testing is where ~30k people are enrolled and half are given the vaccine. The other half are given a placebo. The study is blind: doctors administering the 'vaccines' do not know if they are giving a placebo or the real deal. The participants are monitored to see if the vaccine is effective and if there are any short term side effects. Normally, this is followed up by Phase 4 where long term effects are studied. It is probable this will be skipped. (note: this is a very simplified version of what's involved for testing a vaccine)

Finally, testing is improving. Rather than weeks, some companies are able to do an accurate test with results within 24 hours of sample receipt. There are some that are just as fast that do away with the nasal swabs and only use saliva. Since I am required to take a test each week, I am definitely looking forward to NOT sticking that damned thing up my nose.

On the flipside, the US has had the worst case load in the world. 1/3 of all active cases are in the US. New Zealand is now virus free[4]: they restricted people coming into the country and following protocols like the shelter in place and wearing masks. The US could get covid under control if Americans wore masks for 4 to 8 weeks according to the CDC[5]. Yet, Americans have resisted.

That said, here's the question I have for my fellow ATSers: do you think the pandemic is on the wane or will it get worse? What do you think the final death tally will be?

1. www.worldometers.info...
2. www.cbsnews.com...
3. www.nih.gov...
4. www.bbc.com...
5. abc7.com...

originally posted by: anzha
126 days later, how do you think the pandemic will end?

When we allow that thing evolution gave us, our immune system, to do its job.

It won't ever end. Too many fools using the 'pandemic' as a socio-political tool to drive the sheep. Why end control over the naive?

a reply to: anzha

If trump loses the election it will end incredibly quick...

If he wins it will drag on as the new normal until they try another failed impeachment..

It will end after the November 2020 election.

Bluntone22 beat me to it lol.
I agree they could drag it out if Trump wins, it will be a fruitless effort.

a reply to: CraftyArrow

I thought it over and I feel I should clarify my statement.

The virus will run it's course for about two years.

If trump wins all the deaths will be his fault for the way he handled things.

If biden wins he will be praised for his handling of trumps mess...aka like Obama blaming Bush for 8 years.

a reply to: anzha

126 days later, how do you think the pandemic will end?

With people getting fed up being locked down with virtually no income, for a virus that only negatively affects the weak.

We cannot continue to impede our lives for a virus with less than a 1% fatality rate.

Even the docile sheeple will wake up soon. The money dried up. Gear up for riots over the economy not BLM.

originally posted by: Bluntone22
a reply to: CraftyArrow

I thought it over and I feel I should clarify my statement.

The virus will run it's course for about two years.

If trump wins all the deaths will be his fault for the way he handled things.

If biden wins he will be praised for his handling of trumps mess...aka like Obama blaming Bush for 8 years.

I think the virus has already ran it's course, as most don't even get a sniffle.

Win or Lose; Trump will be blamed for all "COVID" deaths.

If Biden wins, the vice- soon to be president will take all the credit for ridden Trump's "inadequacies."

originally posted by: Bluntone22
a reply to: anzha

If trump loses the election it will end incredibly quick...

If he wins it will drag on as the new normal until they try another failed impeachment..

On that note, people are fed up with whole fiasco of social distancing, masks, not working etc. Knowing they are going to drag this out if Trump wins, that the People who voted for Trump might be so fed up that they vote for the other guy just to end this madness so they can get their kids to school and be able to work. I hope I’m wrong.

originally posted by: CraftyArrow
It will end after the November 2020 election.

Bluntone22 beat me to it lol.
I agree they could drag it out if Trump wins, it will be a fruitless effort.

So the entire world is playing along because of u.s. partisan politics??

originally posted by: blueman12
So the entire world is playing along because of u.s. partisan politics??

No, what I think they're saying is Trump was outplayed in 44D chess by a virus that doesn't have cognitive abilities.

originally posted by: 38181

originally posted by: Bluntone22
a reply to: anzha

If trump loses the election it will end incredibly quick...

If he wins it will drag on as the new normal until they try another failed impeachment..

On that note, people are fed up with whole fiasco of social distancing, masks, not working etc. People who voted for Trump might be so fed up that they vote for the other guy just to end this madness so they can get their kids to school and be able to work. I hope I’m wrong.

He’s got 3 months to right the ship. All he’s got to do is go back to his original statements that the virus is overblown hype. End the lockdowns and let everyone go back to their lives. He will garner his votes by doing this. And revive the amazing economy he touted for over 3 years. If he doesn’t do this soon, we will reach a point of no return. Maybe we already have...

a reply to: KKLOCO

"The weak"

We are all inevitably weak at sometime in our life. If we can avoid harming the weak we should. At least come up with a plan to protect the vulnerable if we decide to open everything up.

a reply to: blueman12

Have you ever heard of globalist?
They usually involve the entire world with their agendas. : P

originally posted by: blueman12

originally posted by: CraftyArrow
It will end after the November 2020 election.

Bluntone22 beat me to it lol.
I agree they could drag it out if Trump wins, it will be a fruitless effort.

So the entire world is playing along because of u.s. partisan politics??

But, but, but! The deep state! Q anon! TDS!

a reply to: CraftyArrow

Trump is not changing the world enough to create a global pandemic for. If this qas a planned virus then i doubt trump has anything to do with it.

Look at how trump favors the military industrial complex. He is a globalist. So if this is a conspiracy we should look beyond theae polar politics.

originally posted by: Atsbhct

originally posted by: blueman12

originally posted by: CraftyArrow
It will end after the November 2020 election.

Bluntone22 beat me to it lol.
I agree they could drag it out if Trump wins, it will be a fruitless effort.

So the entire world is playing along because of u.s. partisan politics??

But, but, but! The deep state! Q anon! TDS!

Yea.. i bet Qanon was created as an attempt to control a portion if the alternative political communities.

originally posted by: KKLOCO
And revive the amazing economy he touted for over 3 years.

There are 30million people out of work and countless business have suffered potentially irreparable financial impact, the worst is coming whether the lockdowns end today or not.

a reply to: anzha

Truly excellent synopsis.

Regardless of the origin, regardless of what is said.

I have been doing a great deal of thinking about this. The virus will be "wild" for a minimum of 2 years total.

If no effective vaccine is created.

The virus will be "wild" for up to 4 years.

When one looks at the great plagues of the past they ran on average from inception to near elimination (none have been totally eliminated, with the exception of smallpox) for 2 - 4 years total.

I find this conclusion very distressing. Pre-virus I took care of my grandchildren after school, now I only see them occasionally in an outdoor setting. Pre-virus I volunteered at a homeless shelter for families, I now can not go there. Pre-virus I was very active in a sewing group who had an "assembly line" to make quilts for homeless and for drug rehab centers, dresses for orphans in Africa, layettes for stillborn babies at our hospital and other projects, now I sit at home and watch TV. I am now, due to my age, living a live of total worthlessness to anyone and am just existing for the next year to three years in hopes I am still able to go back to being of worth to society.

The more I look at all you outlined, and what many on ATS have said, that I can expect to be a worthless eater for the next few years and it has depressed me to the point where it has manifasted in physical illness resulting in major surgery.

But to answer your question:
A total of 2-4 years will be the reality of how long it will last

Even if Biden is elected, we won't hear about it 24/7 like we do now, but it will be as much of a problem in reality even if the news will ignore it pretending that Biden's election magically ended it.

I believe Covid-19 is just the beginning. The world is engulfed in American biological laboratories, one has only to look at the map. The virus was not created for that. to create panic and blame China. The goals are much more dire and long-term. Many more surprises await us. And it's scary.