Over-flattening the curve only prolongs the suffering and prevents herd immunity

I've said for months now that the countries most prone to a 2nd wave are those which prevented the spread too effectively, and Australia is a good example. We wouldn't have had this 2nd wave we are now experiencing if we had taken a common sense approach and allowed young people to keep working while encouraging older people to stay home. Many young people don't have any backup plan or the funds required to get them through these long lockdowns but most older people are retired and they do have that ability. Countless young people are now jobless and their future is uncertain.

If every nation had taken a common sense approach like Sweden did then we wouldn't have devastated the global economy and we'd have a level of herd immunity which would prevent further outbreaks. Instead we now have everyone leaving their houses, older people included, and the virus now has a chance to spread and put those older people at higher risk. However, the places which had the most cases are not seeing a 2nd wave because they have herd immunity. Experts constantly told us we were taking the wrong approach but no one wanted to listen to them, instead they were censored.

So lets take a look at some of the data to see if there's any evidence behind this theory. The following charts are provided by Google when you search "coronavirus cases" and they show the number of new cases each day. I feel the data recorded for new cases is probably far more accurate than the death data because at least we know there was probably a positive test involved. The chart for Australia shows we were able to completely flatten the curve by the end of April but now that we're lifting the lockdowns and easing restrictions on businesses the number is again rising.



Keep in mind we have a total of 106 Covid-19 deaths in Australia which equates to 4 deaths for every 1 million people. That is at the very low end of the scale but the MSM still treats a dozen new cases as if it's the worst thing that has ever happened. Compare that to the USA with a total of 135,828 deaths, equating to 410 deaths per 1 million people. Or the UK with 44,602 deaths, equating to 657 deaths for every 1 million people. Yet the Australian government thinks it is necessary to forcefully lock people inside of buildings, Chief Medical Officer Paul Kelly said it's ok because other places such as "New York, China and in Europe" have taken similar measures.

Only a fearmonger could possibly think it's ok to equate some of the worst hit places on Earth with Australia which is one of the least affected nations. The plan has shifted from flattening the curve to eliminating the curve altogether and I argue that is an absurd approach with no logical basis in science or reality. New Zealand is in a very similar situation to Australia and their political climate is also very similar to that of Australia. The New Zealand Prime Minister recently stated they have managed to fully eliminate Covid-19 from their country, and for the most part is seems they have.

The return to freedom of movement, however, is not quite complete. With the pandemic continuing to rage elsewhere, the country’s borders are still closed. Plans for a “travel bubble” with Australia are in the works, but moving slowly.

Ms. Ardern also announced that QR codes would be appearing wherever people gather. She asked businesses to remind people to scan the codes into the government’s contact tracing app to make any future outbreak easier to track and isolate.

“This is a key new habit we’re asking all New Zealanders to adopt,” she said.

Ms. Ardern has been praised internationally for her approach to New Zealand’s outbreak, which was among the most stringent in the world.

New Zealand Lifts Lockdown as It Declares Virus Eliminated, for Now

One really has to question why all these extreme measures such as using tracking apps are necessary in places which claim to have beaten Covid-19. It's also clear that the moment New Zealand starts letting people in they will see another outbreak because they have almost no immunity at all. So they have to decide between keeping their borders closed for as long as it takes to get a vaccine, which might not even happen, or to let people in and allow their population to gain a herd immunity. The latter is the only sensible option, we can't expect to destroy Covid-19 any more than we can destroy the flu.

We also cannot keep stopping and starting these lockdowns, that's something our Prime Minister in Australia recently said and I appreciate the sentiment, but we seem to be doing the opposite of that in some places. Now lets look at the data for the UK, it was one of the worse hit nations in the world, even more than Italy and even Sweden despite the fact Sweden didn't shut down businesses and allowed people to keep working while following common sense social distancing rules. Also note it didn't jump up in recent weeks despite people packing beaches and protests going on across the UK.



This would only seem possible if the UK has achieved herd immunity. Obviously I'm not saying we should have just let Covid-19 run rampant, but I think it's quite clear now that the economic damage has probably resulted in more suffering than anything else at this point. I'm saying we should of listened to the microbiologists and virology experts warning us that flattening the curve too much would only prolong the lockdowns by preventing herd immunity to occur. I'm saying if we had of just taken reasonable common sense measures we'd have a whole lot less problems right now, instead we let fear control us.

The data for New York state also shows a trend similar to that of the UK. From what I can see New York was the worst hit state in the United States, which enabled the population to gain a herd immunity.



Contrast that with the combined data for the entire United States and we can see that there's an uptick corresponding to the easing of lockdown rules, indicating some other states don't have herd immunity.



Italy was also hit harder than Sweden, and the data for Italy shows they are over the curve with no rise in cases which suggests they have gained a herd immunity and will not suffer from a second wave:



The data for Sweden has some sort of weird oscillating action going on, but we can see the trend falling to almost nothing near the end, whereas it's rising in other nations which lack herd immunity:



There doesn't seem to be reliable data for China, but the data for Hong Kong shows a trend very similar to Australia, suggesting the strict lockdowns in Hong Kong prevented herd immunity from occurring:

Japan also shows a similar trend to Hong Kong and Australia, for anyone interested I have included a few more charts below for the sake of posterity. Germany and Canada also appear to have herd immunity but the cases in India are exploding out of control. Russia also has a bit of a strange trend but seems on the way to herd immunity.

Canada
Germany
India
Russia
Japan

Yeah Australia did overflatten the curve and we were going great at getting set to eliminate it. All other states other than Victoria and tiny bit of NSW were going well in essentially eliminating the virus. But Victoria really screwed the pooch.

Turns out some security guards in Victoria thought it would be alright to have sex with Covid infected people who were quarantined in Hotels. It managed to get back to a whole bunch of high density towers and started spreading like mad again.

My state of Queensland is all opened up again.

But when we ope up the airports, even if 450 people per day come in through international airports and they are required to self--quarantine... well I still think it would just all flare up again.

It's a nightmare.

originally posted by: DaRAGE
Yeah Australia did overflatten the curve and we were going great at getting set to eliminate it. All other states other than Victoria and tiny bit of NSW were going well in essentially eliminating the virus. But Victoria really screwed the pooch.
...
But when we ope up the airports, even if 450 people per day come in through international airports and they are required to self--quarantine... well I still think it would just all flare up again.

I get the sense you didn't read my thread properly, but I hope you can see the irony in both these statements... there is no realistic way to eliminate Covid-19, in fact this approach just puts older people at more risk.

a reply to: ChaoticOrder

Thanks for the thread. I’ve been saying from the start that the lockdowns were the wrong approach, just because when places do open back up, cases are going to go up. Then they lock us down again, and so it goes. Seems that “they” got us to accept the lockdowns with the “flatten the curve” narrative but then immediately forgot about that and switched to “allow no one to catch the virus, anywhere, ever again” which means keeping everyone locked down for however long they want us cooped up.

The frightening thing is how ready most people are/were to just accept the orders without question. People are so stupid and so easily manipulated by our overlords that we immediately started turning on one another. In my state (Virginia) folks started posting phone numbers where you can call and report someone for breaking the “orders” like not wearing a mask or being in groups of more than ten people. That started up early on in this debacle and showed how brain dead and brainwashed people have become.

Evolution: "I gave you an immune system, use it."

Politicians and panicked panty waists: "NO!"

a reply to: KansasGirl

I still believe that the original fifteen day shutdown was a good idea. That's before it went political. The number of diseases caused by a virus that have been cured in history ZERO. Right now we have hot sunny weather. Covid has a half life of minutes in this weather. The original vaccines were weakened viruses. Enough so that the body could build immunity but not strong enough to cause infection. The media shows all of these people at the beach and blames them for an increase of "cases". Actually they are the smart ones.

Can anyone give an example Where Herd Immunity worked with a virus without Vaccinations?

originally posted by: ChaoticOrder
I get the sense you didn't read my thread properly, but I hope you can see the irony in both these statements... there is no realistic way to eliminate Covid-19, in fact this approach just puts older people at more risk.

I read most of it and caught the general drift... But after your comment I read the rest.

When you start talking about herd immunity you're basically saying just let the virus run rampant through the population until most are immune to it.

Here's the thing about herd immunity.... people die getting to that point. And with this virus according to the confirmed cases and the death rate, you're looking at a death rate on average of like 4.5%. Depending on how old the population is, the older it is the more likely a higher death rate, the younger it is, the lower.

I just want people who go around saying words like "lets get herd immunity" and "lets open up for the sake of the economy"... I went these people to get infected, go visit their Grandparents (or elderly parents), and tell them to their face "I'm infected with the Novel Corona-virus and I'm here today to spread herd immunity in my country and help the economy in the long run. Good luck. Feel like a cup of tea and some scones? I hope you both know that I do love you and wish you well. By the way, just wondering, am I in your will?"

a reply to: DaRAGE

When you start talking about herd immunity you're basically saying just let the virus run rampant through the population until most are immune to it.

From the opening post...

Obviously I'm not saying we should have just let Covid-19 run rampant, but I think it's quite clear now that the economic damage has probably resulted in more suffering than anything else at this point. I'm saying we should of listened to the microbiologists and virology experts warning us that flattening the curve too much would only prolong the lockdowns by preventing herd immunity to occur. I'm saying if we had of just taken reasonable common sense measures we'd have a whole lot less problems right now, instead we let fear control us.

originally posted by: TheSkunk
Can anyone give an example Where Herd Immunity worked with a virus without Vaccinations?

You mean apart from the multiple examples I provided in this thread?

originally posted by: ChaoticOrder
From the opening post...

Obviously I'm not saying we should have just let Covid-19 run rampant, but I think it's quite clear now that the economic damage has probably resulted in more suffering than anything else at this point. I'm saying we should of listened to the microbiologists and virology experts warning us that flattening the curve too much would only prolong the lockdowns by preventing herd immunity to occur. I'm saying if we had of just taken reasonable common sense measures we'd have a whole lot less problems right now, instead we let fear control us.

But that is what herd immunity means. Letting it spread through the population. Flattening the curve is only to ease the strain on the hospitals, and the health services...

a reply to: ChaoticOrder

I'm not convinced heard immunity outside of using vaccines is even possible.

a reply to: DaRAGE

It's going to spread through the population whether we like it or not, we're only delaying the inevitable. What we should be doing is controlling what segment of the population is infected so the highest risk groups are protected. I used the word "over-flattening" for a very specific reason, I'm not against flattening the curve to reduce strain on hospitals, but that strain simply doesn't exist in places like Australia. What I'm against is trying to eliminate the curve out of some utopian dream that we can destroy Covid-19. I clearly explained that I believe older people should have self-isolated because they are most at risk, while allowing the rest of the population to gain herd immunity, that is by far the most common sense approach because the vast majority of younger people barely feel Covid-19 and it protects the highest risk groups. The approach we are taking now doesn't do that, it has prevented any sort of immunity from occurring and then expecting everything to be magically solved when we open back up. Then it comes as a shock when we see another wave but it's too late because people have already got their freedom back and they aren't easily giving it up again.

originally posted by: scraedtosleep
a reply to: ChaoticOrder

I'm not convinced heard immunity outside of using vaccines is even possible.

So you're an immune system denier? Lol couldn't help it... but seriously it's a well known fact of science.

a reply to: ChaoticOrder

Soooooo many people saying the same thing. I 100% agree with your entire OP.

The problem is, do you see all the doubters showing up here? This is why our politicians think they can get away with all the draconian lockdowns and restrictions.

Please take my freedoms away — for my ‘safety’

Reminds me of a song.

Has it been established how long the antibodies last to offer immunity? There have been a lot of reports where people get over it then a few weeks later they catch it again. This isn't one where you get it once then never get it again if the protection period is to short there may never be a natural way to achieve herd immunity.

a reply to: ChaoticOrder

but seriously it's a well known fact of science.

Prove it.

a reply to: DaRAGE

I just want people who go around saying words like "lets get herd immunity" and "lets open up for the sake of the economy"... I went these people to get infected, go visit their Grandparents (or elderly parents)...

Ahhh yes... the emotional blackmail!!!

Silly me, I'm the type that thinks it's far better to prepare for the worst, and to be ready and able to deal with adverse conditions. And while I certainly wouldn't go out and about while symptomatic, much less knowingly and deliberately expose others, long before that point I can and will help ensure that IF they should become infected, that their bodies are fortified and strengthened for their immune systems to effectively fight the virus.

What I would never ever do is shut them up alone and afraid in their homes, telling them "it's for their own good," and leave them to their fate... for their own good of course. Because that's not cruel or sadistic or selfish in any way... not at all. Do you ever wonder just how many elderly folks have died alone, afraid and helpless because their loved ones told them to self-isolate "for their own good"? And if they do become ill, abandoned and forsaken when they most needed someone to take care of them because they couldn't take care of themselves?

Do you even give a rats' patootie???

a reply to: Grimpachi

That's a good point but the people who've had it twice have most likely had different strains or just had something similar to Covid-19 and thought they had it twice. Judging by the data so far it seems some places definitely have herd immunity, it's undeniable that people packing onto beaches in the UK and people protesting across the UK would cause an uptick in the data unless herd immunity had been achieved. That means the immunity is long lasting, at least in most people. My guess is it'll last until the next flu season or until a new strain of Covid-19 comes around but there's also a chance the immunity is permanent because that can happen.