Ultra Accurate PRIMARY MODEL Gives President Trump a 91 Percent Chance of Winning Nov 2020.

Thursday, July 9, 2020

When it comes to predictions, always look at the track-record of the person, or the computer model, making the prediction.

When it comes to predicting the winner of Presidential Elections, no model has been more accurate than the "Primary Model". The P.M. has accurately predicted the winner of 25 of the last 27 Presidential elections.

Many of you remember what the Primary Model predicted for the 2016 Presidential Election:

Stony Brook, N.Y. — A SUNY professor continues to project Donald Trump as the likely winner of this year's election and he's critiquing polls that predict the opposite in a new opinion piece.

Helmut Norpoth has been predicting a Trump victory since early this year. His Primary Model currently projects a win for the Republican with a certainty of 87 to 99 percent.

That flies in the face of just about every other major election forecast out there, which mostly give an edge to Democrat Hillary Clinton, notes the Daily Mail.

Norpoth wrote in The Hill that although the race looks decided, current polling methods are "bunk."

Source: www.syracuse.com...

Dr. Norpoth and his model predicted correctly in 2016....Donald Trump won. The prediction is the same for President Trump's re-election chances this coming November:

Despite recent polls that identify Joe Biden as the heavy favorite in 2020, a political science professor is still standing by his prediction model that shows President Trump having a "91 percent" chance of winning in November.

Mediaite reported on Wednesday that Stony Brook Professor Helmut Norpoth is doubling down on his "Primary Model,” which has correctly predicted five out of the past six elections since 1996 and every single election but two in the past 108 years.

“The Primary Model gives Trump a 91 percent chance of winning in November,” Norpoth said. "This model gets it right for 25 of the 27 elections since 1912, when primaries were introduced."

As Mediaite noted, the two elections the model failed to predict was the 1960 election of John F. Kennedy and the 2000 election of George W. Bush.

Norpoth's model examines the results of presidential primaries as the strongest indicator as to the outcome in the general election, not the polls that dominate the political discussion.

According to Norpoth, Biden is in a much weaker position than Trump because of his poor showing in the first two primary races.

Before making the stunning comeback in the South Carolina primary and carrying the following races, Biden came in fourth place in Iowa with just 15.8 percent of the vote and came in fifth place in New Hampshire with just 8.4 percent.

Norpoth stressed that enthusiasm is key.

Continued at: www.foxnews.com...

Not surprisingly, because the Primary Model is so historically accurate in its Presidential Election predictions, it is was rarely mentioned by the Liberal Media (90% of all U.S. media) in 2016. And so far, that pattern of omission is repeating, ahead of this year's Presidential Election.

-CareWeMust

I don’t think there’s a single person on Earth who truly believes that President Trump won’t win a second term

They love to screech otherwise but deep down in the bowels of the devil, they ALL know what gonna happen in November

And I think everyone is glad that the dEms are not going to take the Whitehouse. Because, well, we’ve ALL been watching and NOBODY likes what they see.

a reply to: carewemust

I read that earlier but this one feels different to me. I think the unique climate of the early Democratic primary with the progressives behind Sanders, along with how triggered and inflamed Trump has them is worth noting.

In the 1992 primary, Bill Clinton lost in Iowa and New Hampshire just as Biden did. Sure, people wanted Sanders but when they saw that Biden was polling stronger, they all rallied behind him much more quickly and easily than they did with Sanders vs Clinton in 2016. People in the Sanders camp were bitter even after the convention and many didn't vote for Clinton.

The hate against Trump is so real that the Democratic voters will be unified wholeheartedly at the polls. With Trump, swing voters are rare since he's divided and polarized the nation to such a degree. 2016 was unique in that it was an election with no incumbent and the VP of the incumbent didn't run. Now, the VP of the former incumbent decided to run 4 years later. Has a VP of a former incumbent 4 years prior ran for President in the past? There's too many variables to simply go off of primary performance numbers.

Of course, if you're for Trump this is much needed assurance. 25 of 27 is definitely extremely accurate. We'll see if the primary model is outdated and needs to be recalibrated.

The media, not the President, has divided and polarised the nation.

Manipulating ONLY the easily-manipulated.

a reply to: Breakthestreak

Indeed. Even Democrats think Trump will win, even though they're voting for Joe Biden.

zogbyanalytics.com... a-bigger-threat-to-economic-recovery-independents-and-hispanics-say-democrats-are-a-bigger-threat

a reply to: FlyingSquirrel

I don't know if "Enthusiasm based in hate" is enough. The hatred of Barack Obama's leadership wasn't strong enough to put Mitt Romney over the top. But you're right. The atmosphere in the country is without precedent this time around.

What difference does it make? If Trump wins, we'll have to endure for more years of unbridled outrage from his opponents. If he loses, there will be four years of aggressive persecution of his supporters.

We are past the point of return now.

Things will be far worse a year from now, regardless of who sits in the WH.

a reply to: FlyingSquirrel

I consider myself a blue-dog democrat. Voted Obama 2X, voted for B Clinton too. That said, first:

Trump has not polarized this nation. The democrats have by allowing the far left to be their voice.

Second:

Conservative Democrats (Southern) as well as Swing voters have very much been marginalized by the Democratic party

3rd:
I hate Trump with a holy passion. The dude is an #$#hole. He is a $h1tty president, and wish to god that the democrats would have given us something better.

4th:
The democrats have whole heartily refused to produce a quality centrist candidate. The are continuing to cater to their far left, and anyone kissing their ass can kiss mine too.

as a result of that

5: I will with great despair be voting for Trump again, then going to the bar getting a long island and crying for my nation, as the reality is our nation is so broken up by media, and the left that Trump is the best we got. Which is completely depressing.

My prediction: Trump wins. Republicans will come out no matter what to vote, as the realize that not voting will result in a Dem win. They want the Supreme court and Ginsberg will most likely be gone in the next 4. Swing votes will vote for him, because the DEMOCRATS have called them Racist, Homophobic, POS for the last 4 years. Conservative Dems will vote for him, as lets face it, seriously Biden will fix the economy? No he won't.

Camain

a reply to: Breakthestreak

Yeah, if it was the President fanning the flames, the press would say what he really said. Not play an excerpt of what he says out of context.

a reply to: camain

He’s not that bad. He’s just comes across as an ass to some because he says what he thinks with no filter. You may not like what he thinks, but at least you know what he really thinks. When is the last time you could honestly say that about a president.

a reply to: carewemust

For me there is no mystery in who will win.

If they were serious about winning they would never have selected such a weak candidate as an opponent.

The mystery for me is why are they willing forfeiting the Presedency again.

originally posted by: Breakthestreak
I don’t think there’s a single person on Earth who truly believes that President Trump won’t win a second term

They love to screech otherwise but deep down in the bowels of the devil, they ALL know what gonna happen in November

And I think everyone is glad that the dEms are not going to take the Whitehouse. Because, well, we’ve ALL been watching and NOBODY likes what they see.

I used to be a Trump supporter. I don't dislike him now, in fact, I still think he is on the correct path but right wingers in the House and Senate is a worse proposition than leftists.

Trump has almost no chance of winning in November. If you follow things closely you'll see a significant portion of his base, which held firm for over 3 years, has abandoned him in the last 2 months. He just is not strong enough. Still playing defence, still absolutely zero accountability for the outrageous behaviour of people involved in spying and smearing for years. Still leaving his most loyal supporters to rot in jail under politically motivated charges born of the rotten fruit of the Mueller SC, still leaving his supporters to face censorship from more and more areas of society .

I can not see how any conservative or moderate Trump supporter could say their lives are not a LOT worse since Trump took office.

a reply to: NightSkyeB4Dawn

The only way any of this makes sense is if this whole thing, impeachment and Epstein and all, is If it’s as scripted as professional wrestling. We are trying to understand insanity and will go insane ourselves trying to understand. I admit that I find myself more stressed just worrying about trying to go to work and buy groceries without being attacked or doxxed or accosted for thinking for myself. No one wants to live this way, Democrats included. They know they are next. They eat their own when the wind changes. But I’m digressing.
The Clinton emails and blackberries , the Epstein murder coverup, russiagate, CHAZ. We are seeing so much evil go unchecked and nobody’s doing anything about it. Like I hinted at earlier, I’m aware of my own mental health being strained by this I can’t be the only one.
The only way this makes sense is if they have openly agreed to themselves that Trump will be president for 8 years and we have to really ham this up to make sure the public thinks we hate him.

originally posted by: NightSkyeB4Dawn
a reply to: carewemust

For me there is no mystery in who will win.

If they were serious about winning they would never have selected such a weak candidate as an opponent.

The mystery for me is why are they willing forfeiting the Presedency again.

No mystery. The Dem party is fractured to the point that no candidate could be 100% acceptable. The gap between the radical left, and the mainstream Dem voter is so huge, that any platform they promote will pi$$ off a certain percentage of voters.

Much like a rebuilding sports franchise, this is, basically, a throw away election, thus a throw away candidate.

Here comes the Mailman 🤓🚬

originally posted by: xuenchen
Here comes the Mailman 🤓🚬

Carl Malone????

originally posted by: Breakthestreak
The media, not the President, has divided and polarised the nation.

Manipulating ONLY the easily-manipulated.

Sorry but it's both.