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The worst is to come. Based on research in 84 countries, a team at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology reckons that, [coor=yellow]for each recorded case, 12 go unrecorded and that for every two covid-19 deaths counted, a third is misattributed to other causes.
Without a medical breakthrough, it says, the total number of cases will climb to 200m-600m by spring 2021. At that point, between 1.4m and 3.7m people will have died. Even then, well over 90% of the world’s population will still be vulnerable to infection—more if immunity turns out to be transient.
Editor’s note: Some of our covid-19 coverage is free for readers of The Economist Today, our daily newsletter. For more stories and our pandemic tracker, see our hub
The actual outcome depends on how societies manage the disease.
Here the news is better. Epidemiologists understand how to stop covid-19.
You catch it indoors, in crowds, when people raise their voices.
The poor are vulnerable, as are the elderly and those with other conditions.
You can contain the virus with three tactics:
changes in behaviour; testing, tracing and isolation;
and, if they fail, lockdowns.
The worse a country is at testing—and many governments have failed to build enough capacity—the more it has to fall back on the other two.
Good public health need not be expensive. Dharavi, a slum of 850,000 people in Mumbai, tamed an outbreak (see article).
originally posted by: musicismagic
8. We are now finding out that bodies of water DO contain the virus, so please stay out of public swimming pools this summer