NY + NJ % of total deaths is rising

I’ve been keeping track of New York and New Jersey’s covid19 deaths for several weeks. Their share of all U.S. covid19 deaths has noticeably risen the last few days to 56.6 percent as of April 16. The two states have had about half the nation’s deaths since I started regularly checking the national stats.

Oddly, as the death toll rises in NY and NJ, their share of known covid19 cases appears to be declining. I’ve seen it as high as 48 percent of total cases, whereas they stood at 44.4 percent of all cases yesterday.

I have no idea what could account for this. Could it simply be that more people have been infected for weeks at this point, hence are dying in greater numbers after a long struggle? Whatever the reason, it appears the recovery rate is lower than it was. Does anyone know how the recovery rates in NY and NJ compare to other states?

a reply to: Scapegrace

It’s because the testing is less reliable than a politician.

As they say Even if you test negative, assume you have it “experts” say

And that article is two weeks old

a reply to: Scapegrace
Nobody really knows the true numbers.

I have never seen so much blatant misinformation being ALLOWED in my life. They have ADMITTED to fudging numbers, claiming non covid deaths, to covid, and not even testing some that they are adding. They barely give us "recovered" numbers, and lie about testing.

And NOBODY is questioning it.

It is the craziest thing I've seen in a long time.

We deserve everything we get.

a reply to: chiefsmom

The ones who don’t question it deserve it, I am still finding away to make it all “viral” as they say. Ironic that we have to make misinformation about a virus go “viral”. To actually get the help we need.......

a reply to: SeektoUnderstand

I saw an interview with a professor from South Korea and he said that if a person has less than 3000 copies of the virus then the PCR test wont detect it.

a reply to: Scapegrace

Rich irony in this. Thats affecting a lot of Dem party supporters. The party that admires the CCP. The party that elected Bill Clinton who gave away US secrets to the CCP.

Kinda makes you wonder, doesnt it.

lol less then 3000 hua This is one thing that shows alot of people just dont understand just how testing or the virus works . You could have the cold virus now and not ever get sick nore ever have it show up on a test .
with lets say 3000 of the little buggers vers BILLIONS of human cells well the little buggers are massively out numbered and If your one of the lucky ones your body will hear the door open right off and the dogs ( antibody ) will attack the intruder and well we all know what happens next .
thing is 3000 you wont get sick you wont ever know and ovesly even a test cant decet numbers that SMALL .
a 1000 TIMES a day your body fights off a Bug without ever getting sick or you even knowing it .

Now I believe it looks as if this virus being related to the common cold wile noval is not totally Unrecognized by some peoples bodys which is why so many only have a light case father more being its quite oves over 75 % of people have light effects it has been shown EVEN some Babies are BEING borne from a mom who HAS IT .not only is teh baby aaNOT sick with it BUT Already has the ANTIBODY'S in place TO stop the bug !!!
THIS means Our children are being borne immuin to it it also means in 20 years near every human will be immune .

Its novil But not quite Novil enough along with humans responce which is half measures i admite and which is also a piss poor job I admit NOT that YOU would do any better or I . As painfull as this has been It was a choice between a FULL out brake numbers dead are pointless as a BILLION sick and the econmy goes UNDER see if we let it just run the economy would have totally tanked anyway BUT the shelves WOULD truly be empty as NO trucks Running No people Picking the food NO doctors no Nurses the dead would just be dead the livin on the other hand WOULD ALL BE SICK AT ONCE .

Now just hope this half butted response is enough to do two things ONE slow it enough so NOT every one gets sick at once Two puts enough INTO business so when we do reopen the MONEY is there to restart the economy .

How many must be sick befor your relize TESTINg teh dead is is Pointless or how many died from what is POINTLESS .
because it does not matter if every LAST person survived it . It takes weeks NOT days even BUT weeks for MOst to get well . yes yes i know some have better resistance and get well in days Lucky them !

650 k sick NOW and yes the true number coudl be 1.5 million max if we did NOTHING that number would be Millions 20 30 million ! ALL sik at once DOES not matter if it was only as bad as a bad COLD ! NO ones going to work SICK !
so just who would be Driving the trucks who would be servicing the stores .

It does not matter how the dead are counted it does matter how the living LIVE .

a reply to: SeektoUnderstand

As they say Even if you test negative, assume you have it “experts” say

This is why widespread testing won't help too much. On top of that, if you test negative, it still doesn't mean you are good to resume all normal activities.

We need a reliable antibody test and those that have antibodies can lead the return back to whatever "normal" that has to come.

a reply to: Scapegrace

Governor Murphy said numbers are about 2 weeks behind. That makes data unreliable.

a reply to: Scapegrace

I’ve been keeping track of New York and New Jersey’s covid19 deaths for several weeks. Their share of all U.S. covid19 deaths has noticeably risen the last few days to 56.6 percent as of April 16. The two states have had about half the nation’s deaths since I started regularly checking the national stats.

That's because the other states' numbers are dropping like a rock.
The gang in NY wants that Fed money.
Election campaigning and all...

originally posted by: pavil
We need a reliable antibody test and those that have antibodies can lead the return back to whatever "normal" that has to come.

Guess what? I'm not submitting myself for antibody screening.

And the people that want me to ... can suck it!!

originally posted by: chiefsmom
a reply to: Scapegrace


I have never seen so much blatant misinformation being ALLOWED in my life.

You must have been off planet when 9/11 happened.

This is just a rerun of tactics that obviously worked......

..and from NYC/NY no less.

These "lockdowns" are having unintended consequences for the spin masters. How they didn't consider the fact that what else are people going to do in quarantine with all this time on their hands but research, research, research.

Given enough time, folks are going to see this for what it is and by then, every horrible, reactive scenario will be on the table...

..along with a thick slice of politician and a side of roasted media.

First off people, its NYC that is leading in cases not the rest of NY. Very important distinction, especially in terms of tracking this virus. Second I'm calling into question NY cases in general. Cuomo sent patients upstate about two weeks ago. Are those cases being counted as NYC cases or are they padding the numbers by counting them in the counties they were sent to as well? Its no secret that even before the quarantine the state budget was shot, now with a chance to acquire fed funds. I would not put it past the Cuomo administration to do that.

The big problem is everybody thinks the figures are instantaneous and think that when the figure for the same day alters that it shows a conspiracy. Final figures take days and sometimes weeks to pull together so there will always be a lag on the true figures.

a reply to: Snarl

You wouldn't want to know if you already had the Wuhan and survived it?

Ok..........

a reply to: chiefsmom

"We are going to change how we report all deaths in relation to covid19"

*reported death rates rise*

"ZOMG the death rates went up!"

I do try to keep my snark in check online, because it usually is perceived wrong, but yeah..

Its not that "NOBODY is questioning it," its that not enough people are questioning it.

As EternalShadow said.. The similarities to past events are pretty profound. I would have to argue this is all a bit more extreme than in the past though..

I try to walk a fine line, personally, between just calling it all out and not isolating folks that are in constant fear-mode. Doesnt really seem to work lol

Either way, the best comprehensive counter-narrative I have found is here. Its frequently updated, very well sourced, and absolutely packed with info.

Notably though, its pretty specific to the virus and as a counter-narrative, carries inherent issues of its own.

Most are getting their information solely from the news, twitter, facebook, etc. Thats a real, real big problem. If they dont want any of this to stop, I dont think it will.

originally posted by: chiefsmom
a reply to: Scapegrace
Nobody really knows the true numbers.

I have never seen so much blatant misinformation being ALLOWED in my life. They have ADMITTED to fudging numbers, claiming non covid deaths, to covid, and not even testing some that they are adding. They barely give us "recovered" numbers, and lie about testing.

And NOBODY is questioning it.

It is the craziest thing I've seen in a long time.

We deserve everything we get.

Exactly... New York was squawking a while back because they were only getting $16,000 per CoVid 19 fatality and Nebraska was getting $300,000 per. There fore everything even remotely close is now a CoVid 19 death. It's absolutely crazy it's a money grab and about power and control. Not saying there isn't a virus just this response is being taken advantage of.

originally posted by: Scapegrace
I’ve been keeping track of New York and New Jersey’s covid19 deaths for several weeks. Their share of all U.S. covid19 deaths has noticeably risen the last few days to 56.6 percent as of April 16. The two states have had about half the nation’s deaths since I started regularly checking the national stats.

Oddly, as the death toll rises in NY and NJ, their share of known covid19 cases appears to be declining. I’ve seen it as high as 48 percent of total cases, whereas they stood at 44.4 percent of all cases yesterday.

I have no idea what could account for this. Could it simply be that more people have been infected for weeks at this point, hence are dying in greater numbers after a long struggle? Whatever the reason, it appears the recovery rate is lower than it was. Does anyone know how the recovery rates in NY and NJ compare to other states?

A paper I reviewed in another thread suggests that by now, about half of New York's population has been infected (and most are recovering) so we may be seeing the impact of partial herd immunity. New Jersey (under this model) has not been as widely infected (about 1/4th the population but they've had some pretty strict measures imposed.

Recovery rate would be age and socioeconomic dependent... so older patients are at risk, as are states with poorer populations (Louisiana)

a reply to: Byrd

How do you feel something like a full population lockdown will affect gaining that "herd immunity?"

In a "for instance," what would the impact have been if we kept elementary schools open? That probably gets a visceral response from some, but I think its a valid question.

The more Ive thought about it, the more Ive felt that all this time, energy, resources, and money would have been better focused in designing a system that enables us to very quickly scale our medical system to handle large surges. Its been a continuous problem for quite a few years.

Population density.