The Myth Of A Rapid Economic Recovery Once Quarentines Are Lifted

a reply to: CriticalStinker

Squabbling over pennies while both parties are spending a full year or more in our countries revenue.

And killing the stock market in the process while the retail biz was denied staying open. When the mkt. tanks, there goes any chance of recovery.


You ready?

a reply to: AugustusMasonicus

I was thinking about something this weekend.

I was paying my bills this weekend (phone, DISH, utilities, car payment, insurance, etc) and all of them had statements and such saying shut-offs would not happen and deferred payments were acceptable under this current crisis.

Currently there's like 22 million out of work right now.

Imagine if many of those out of work cannot and do not make their payments. Most probably can't. After this is over, banks, utility companies, AT&T, Verizon etc are going to want their money.

So now we'll have millions of people behind 2 to 3 months behind on their rent, and all their bills.

They may not even have jobs to go back to once this is over.

The fallout for this is going to be massive.

a reply to: AugustusMasonicus

Not just London mate, every single town, city and village the length and breadth of the UK.

Many believe there has been a systematic attempt to destroy the pub culture in the UK.
It's where people have always met, relaxed, let off steam and discussed every topic imaginable. It's where the public meet and discuss current events as well as the best of British traditions; 'taking the piss' and banter. Its where politicians and their doings are put under the microscope.

What better place to start restricting peoples freedoms.....all under the pretense of their own health and safety?

And as has been proven before, prohibition does not work.

a reply to: DBCowboy

Here in the UK mortgage payments missed will simply be added on at the end of the scheduled repayments.
Surely common sense would extend this to other loans etc?

I guess this relies on banks and their willingness to help people and businesses and lets face it, historically they've never been the most understanding and compassionate establishments.

a reply to: Freeborn

I think fecal matter will be impacting rotary oscillators very soon.

originally posted by: DBCowboy
They may not even have jobs to go back to once this is over.

The fallout for this is going to be massive.

I've been calling customers, these are well known national brands, and many have not furloughed people we normally worked with, they terminated them with no rehire date. With this many people out of work it's going to be a hiring managers market and people who had a salary expectation prior to this are going to end up with much less. It's going to be bad for a long time.

originally posted by: Freeborn
And as has been proven before, prohibition does not work.

Yeah, we kind of proved that in spades.

a reply to: olaru12

I've been ready.

A lot of people are about to get an unfortunate dose of reality soon.

I'd be real mad if I were them. They were told to buy the dip, and that this was all temporary. They were incentivised away from saving, because interest rates are so low.

Question is... Was the narrative nefarious or just wrong wishful thinking.

originally posted by: Freeborn
a reply to: ScepticScot

The number of people directly employed in pubs has always been under reported due to many bar people being paid cash in hand.

Limit people allowed into each licensed premises in relation to square footage in accordance with social distancing etc.
Any contravention could result in immediate revocation of license.

May need more door staff being employed to monitor numbers etc.

I think its worth mentioning that its rumoured restaurants could be among the first to reopen so people could simply book a table and stay in there all night drinking, what would be the difference?

I once drank in a pub that had table service only, no standing. Despite being in an expensive place in centre of Edinburgh it is in my list of places never to darken door of again.

People don't got to pubs to sit at tables with people they live with or stand 2 meters apart. People with a few drinks down them tend not to follow rules that well either.

Would love to be wrong but realistically I don't see pubs opening soon. Unless there is a general end to the mitigation measures I suspect pubs will be near the end of places to reopen.

Everyhting is going to be just like before. For serious.

Spoke to a friend fo mine yesterday who works for one of the most famous luxury goods brands in the world, they are all furloughed right now but will get their jobs back next month.

At a 20% pay reduction. They don't really need that money anyway.

a reply to: AugustusMasonicus

Even Elon Musk gets it.

"It will cause great harm, not just to Tesla but to many companies," Musk said on the call. "And while Tesla will weather the storm, there are many companies that will not. Everything people have worked for their whole life is being destroyed in real time."

"If somebody wants to stay in their house, that's great and they should be able to," he said. "But to say they cannot leave their house and that they will be arrested if they do, that's fascist. That is not democratic — this is not freedom. Give people back their goddamn freedom."

Link

a reply to: FauxMulder

The fact that I can't stand him but agree that he's absolutely correct shows the level of stupid we've sunken to.

It's all gonna be okay, all the people not making what they made before will just run right back out and spend money they don't have on things they can't get.

a reply to: Freeborn

I can't see that happening; its hard to envisage children being able to stick to social distancing measures and it's be incredibly hard for teachers to be able to enforce those rules.
But its essential for schools to open to enable parents to go back to work, if they have jobs to go back to that is.

They're talking about a scaled return to school with only certain age groups at first. So basically a lottery for some if/when they can go back to work.

I'm pessimistic, I honestly think we'll just see spikes of infections 2 weeks later.

I've also both heard and read reports that pubs and clubs will not be allowed to reopen till November or even Christmas.
That would be totally inexcusable.
If true that would completely destroy the whole pub culture in the UK - many of us think that has been a long time goal of TPTB but that deserves a thread of its own - and consign literally millions to the dole, a whole industry destroyed.

It's going to be the whole hospitality industry and those that support it. If restaurants reopen they'll have to change policy drastically and many are fed by the same suppliers as bars and pubs, hotels too.

Suppliers don't get over knocks like this, hell name any business that's basically import/export which can pick up where it left off after 6-12 months of non trading. It's not going to happen.

Kegged beer and lager do not last long, I fear there's going to be nobody to supply pubs if they get the chance to open. The loss of breweries will have a huge effect on hospitality in general.

With a lot of companies getting into microbrewing too I see this as a big nail in the coffin of an already dying industry. Perfect for corporate giants though in the long run.

Restaurants might do ok, the one's doing takeaways are getting by but barely. Hotels, pubs and bars are screwed. Holding gigs is the big bucks and I don't see many parties or weddings being hosted any time soon.

originally posted by: RAY1990
Restaurants might do ok, the one's doing takeaways are getting by but barely. Hotels, pubs and bars are screwed. Holding gigs is the big bucks and I don't see many parties or weddings being hosted any time soon.

They're mostly screwed too, you cannot make a living doing takeout when you were formally a dine in establishment. The amount of covers they lost cannot be made up.

This is a joke.

a reply to: AugustusMasonicus

It's really interesting to see, in real time, the absolute disconnect between business and government.

We're really seeing now, how government has absolutely no idea what it takes to run, maintain a business.

originally posted by: DBCowboy
We're really seeing now, how government has absolutely no idea what it takes to run, maintain a business.

I disagree. Government could run a business.


Into the ground.

a reply to: AugustusMasonicus

I know.

Even if they made the downgrade to a takeaway establishment and get rid of most of their staff they'll still be looking at losing 50-70% of their income. Anyways potentially social distancing could be applied to restaurants... Personally I wouldn't pay premium for a distanced service, I pay for the experience not the food.

This is social conditioning whether purposeful or not, if we continue down this path we won't be going back. Not without massive intervention. I don't think any government is up for the task either.

a reply to: RAY1990

I pretty much think the remainder of the year is screwed and we're now moving into depression territory.

a reply to: AugustusMasonicus

All you need to know is that the global elect are running the stock market on a forty week cycle.

If you want more information then you can go look at Elon Musk's tweets. He is front running virtual versus physical. Watch for the stock market to plunge again and a major bitcoin pump'n'dump to occur.

originally posted by: Freeborn
a reply to: DBCowboy

Here in the UK mortgage payments missed will simply be added on at the end of the scheduled repayments.
Surely common sense would extend this to other loans etc?

I guess this relies on banks and their willingness to help people and businesses and lets face it, historically they've never been the most understanding and compassionate establishments.

Well, just my common sense says if people are out of work and not getting paid for months, then the banks shouldn't be making money for those months and those missed monthly fees should be waived not tacked on the end. After all the people not working will be out those months worth of income and whether it is deferred or not they will not suddenly be able to cough up the non existent income from those months.