CDC Director: Coronavirus Death Toll Will Be ‘Much, Much, Much Lower’ than Projected

originally posted by: TheSpanishArcher
a reply to: Grambler

I, and I'm sure many others, didn't ask for this but do you really think the Governor had me on the phone asking my opinion?

He shut down the state of Nevada and I didn't have a choice. So what, pray tell, was I and any others who didn't want this, to do?

You were supposed to author threads on ATS to protect the liberty and rights of the republic. Have you not been paying attention?

a reply to: jadedANDcynical

The same Imperial College of London the drastically overmodeled the last two pandemic situations it was called on to forecast - hoof and mouth and swine flu?

a reply to: Sillyolme

Sorry for the late reply, I broke my "shelter in place" order to rake my back lot.

The New York Times recently used CDC data to model how the how the virus could spread if no actions were taken to stop transmission in the US. The models show that between 160 million and 214 million people could be infected and as many as 200,000 to 1.7 million people could die.

www.businessinsider.com...

Maybe by the end of the week, we can get back to normal and leave our homes. Then we can all say the President was right when he said "this will be over by Easter"!

Of course, all the anti-Trumpers will never admit this is over and declare perpetual doom.

MAGA

a reply to: sputniksteve

Ah, I see. My internet voice isn't loud enough. Maybe I just don't type hard enough?

Truthfully, Tucker Carlsen made a decent point. If it's so dangerous that we have to stay in our homes and cannot go to work because we're going to possibly come into contact with someone who is sick, then how does that reduce our exposure to be able to go to the grocery store where everyone else in the neighborhood also goes?

We're probably going to come into contact with more people directly and indirectly in a public space like a grocery store than we would at the average office.

a reply to: ketsuko

I'd say because, depending on your job, you will interact with a few to a few dozen people during your shift, while shopping, you will really only interact with one, the cashier.

a reply to: daskakik

Only if you have your own private grocery store.

I don't know about you, but my grocery store is still open to all. I interact with the deli lady, the guy at the fish counter, anyone I happen to pass by during the course of shopping, and then the checkout person, and that's all without factoring in anyone who happened to touch anything I touch before I touched it.

a reply to: ketsuko

Here only one person (per family) is allowed in the stores (supermarkets) and with a mask. You get sanitizing gel on your way in. The advice is to wipe everything down when you get home so whatever anyone has touched in a store gets disinfected. Extreme? Maybe.

In the end, everyone sitting at home because sporting venues, restaurants, theaters and other such places are closed does reduce the interactions between people. It isn't about totally stopping the spread it is about spreading it out over time to not swamp the hospitals.

originally posted by: AutomateThis1
Soooo... about next week.

This hasn't really blown up in Florida or Louisiana yet..

I think someone's counting eggs expecting chickens.

a reply to: clay2 baraka

They're telling us it's going to blow up all over, and I think there are some areas where it will blow up. I know it's going pretty hard in St. Louis and hitting certain counties in the Kansas City metro pretty hard.

Obviously, they've been clobbered in New York and New Jersey.

I think in the end we'll find some interesting patterns, but I don't think it's going to be as contagious all over as uniformly as they imagine.

originally posted by: clay2 baraka

originally posted by: AutomateThis1
Soooo... about next week.

This hasn't really blown up in Florida or Louisiana yet..

I think someone's counting eggs expecting chickens.

It may "blow up", but I still don't think it's going to be the end of the world for Floridians and Louisiana folks.

The economy is going to impact them more than this new disease.

originally posted by: shawmanfromny
a reply to: Boadicea

I understand your point of view, but what about my "absolute right and privilege" to ignore these precautionary measures that are being implemented everywhere? Where's my choice?

It's actually an interesting moral dilemma- where do we draw the line? What woukd we say if it was a 90% fatal virus with a 14 day incubation? Freedom at all costs?

I'm not saying we didn't go too far with destroying economies, just asking what IS the point at which we need to consider the harm to others?

As it is, I'm not legally allowed to drive 130mph on roads, because doing so puts others at risk. Should it be my right to do so? I'm talking extreme examples, obviously, but I really think we, as a society, need to figure out the answer to where that line is.

Pandemics will continue to arise out of China - we can't kill the economy year after year. We can wall off our own nations to keep out anyone or anything who has been to China, or to any country who has had anyone or anything from China in it. That probably won't happen. I think we need tojust gearupour hospitals and collectively decide what our acceptable mortality rate is.

a reply to: dogstar23

The thing is that this isn't even as dangerous as the Spanish Flu was. It had a higher mortality rate and tended to make everyone who got it very, very ill so that they pretty much wished they were dead. It was a miserable illness to suffer through.

At the outset, this thing looked like it was at least going to be comparable to Spanish Flu, and it looks like in some places, it's nearing that at least it's close to overwhelming the medical systems in places like New York and Italy and it did in Wuhan like Spanish Flu did if nothing else.

That alone was worth taking some measures for if not killing our entire economy for. But we seem to have lobbed a nuclear bomb at it rather than taking a precise approach.

a reply to: shawmanfromny

As many have pointed out, perhaps the more responsible headline for this thread would have been "CDC Director Robert Redfield: Because American Public Did Social Distancing, Coronavirus Death Toll Will Be "Much, Much, Much Lower."

a reply to: KKLOCO

Maybe if we in the Western world had the balls like Europeans to protest nowadays we'd stand a chance?! I'm no slouch myself, but if enough of us that saw through this bull# and fought for transparency actually stood up and protested to a federal authority worldwide even who knows wtf would come of it? Everyone is scared? Nope. Everyone is f*cking lazy really. Cause we'd have to take a day off, potentially travel, may go on our record and all that nonsense....you know what's scarier than a government who can pull of a farce and shut down and destroy an economy? A workforce that drives it and shuts it down themselves and demands answers. A police and military force that sees eye to eye and realizes their family is on that other side...
Just my humble opinion. But we really don't have the balls. We can type, we can't even talk....

Is this related to inaccurate reporting of deaths caused by the virus that merely coincided with infection and were dependent on other causes?

originally posted by: TheSpanishArcher
a reply to: Grambler

I, and I'm sure many others, didn't ask for this but do you really think the Governor had me on the phone asking my opinion?

He shut down the state of Nevada and I didn't have a choice. So what, pray tell, was I and any others who didn't want this, to do?

I don't know if Grambler has been around since I first posted this but I wanted to get his answer to this question. I'm going to keep pushing this issue as we are all not worthy in his opinion.

I want to know exactly how I was supposed to fight. Who was I going to fight and how? How was I supposed to stop the governor from shutting down this state? How was anyone able to stop this?

originally posted by: TheSpanishArcher

originally posted by: TheSpanishArcher
a reply to: Grambler

I, and I'm sure many others, didn't ask for this but do you really think the Governor had me on the phone asking my opinion?

He shut down the state of Nevada and I didn't have a choice. So what, pray tell, was I and any others who didn't want this, to do?

I don't know if Grambler has been around since I first posted this but I wanted to get his answer to this question. I'm going to keep pushing this issue as we are all not worthy in his opinion.

I want to know exactly how I was supposed to fight. Who was I going to fight and how? How was I supposed to stop the governor from shutting down this state? How was anyone able to stop this?

That's the question everyone beats around the bush. People will argue all day long that something needs to be done, but when it actually comes to doing something no one is willing.

originally posted by: GravitySucks
a reply to: shawmanfromny

As many have pointed out, perhaps the more responsible headline for this thread would have been "CDC Director Robert Redfield: Because American Public Did Social Distancing, Coronavirus Death Toll Will Be "Much, Much, Much Lower."

The real question though will be:

Were Americans voluntarily taking enough precautions on their own? Would a few measures like cancelling major sports and large events down to small scale gatherings of 50 or less and spacing out dining and social gathering spaces have been enough, tighter restrictions on senior centers and complexes, etc.? Or did we need to chuck a massive nuclear bomb into our entire economy the way we did?

Since we have no way of seeing areas where those approaches were tried to see how they worked, we'll never know. We went straight to nuking it all from orbit. So we pat ourselves on the back over the shambles of everyone's lives and livelihoods and tell ourselves that so many would have died if we hadn't ... but we don't really know.