CDC Director: Coronavirus Death Toll Will Be ‘Much, Much, Much Lower’ than Projected

a reply to: shawmanfromny

Yah think?

a reply to: Nyiah

You know I agree with you to an extent but, as I keep saying, jumping to conclusions is dangerous.

Nobody here, and I do mean no one, can say how this is going to pan out yet.

Its taken 5 months for one of the most compliant and restrictive countries in the world to get to a stage where they are slowly opening up again and only after introducing massively strict measures.

Europe and the USA aren't there yet.

originally posted by: hombero
You just happened to be right, that's all. It could have easily gone the other way. You're not an expert or in a position to claim to be an authority for making such predictions.

When it comes to predicting government's behavior I am always right. You don't need to be an expert to know once the government gets involved it's going to screw up something completely.

originally posted by: Edumakated
a reply to: Nyiah

I've been saying from Day 1 it is mass hysteria brought on by social media, bias mainstream media, and politicians looking to hype up situation to hurt Trump.

I really don't see how, if there was a divide, it didn't last long. Both sides look pretty damn bad right now because they ended up harping about the same ultimately unnecessary overkill crap needing to be done. Both R & D politicians supporting Draconian # don't look any different from each other.

a reply to: neformore

But the healthcare system is not choked up in the majority of the country.

You obviously don’t have any loved ones that are being refused life saving procedures at the moment. I’ve got two. One will die within weeks without a lung being removed. The other will die within two months of prostate cancer.

We are basically letting everyone needing urgent healthcare die. For the sake of helping those with the flu. Makes a lot of sense. SMH

Trump, just like a lot of intelligent people were buffaloed by improper interpretations of evidence submitted by individuals that were supposed to be stating facts not fiction.

originally posted by: Phage
a reply to: shawmanfromny

And it doesn't occur to anyone that the new numbers are lower because the measures are working?

It doesn't need to "occur" to anyone because there's going to be someone to tell us so!

I doubt anyone will question that the social-distancing and self-isolation has had an impact on slowing the spread. Of course it did.

But no one should believe that was the only reason. Increasing temperatures and sunlight will play their part. As well as people educating themselves and nursing and nurturing their own bodies.

But don't worry folks, you will always be able to say that the measures weren't necessary.

"Necessary" is a relative term here. It wasn't "necessary" to slow the spread, since other factors can also contribute. But it would help slow the spread.

originally posted by: AugustusMasonicus

Is it? Or is it the same as other strains with the exception that this is a new one?

My assumption is it actually is...maybe your is it is actually not... In the end I don't really care to debate over this as we can not compare unless we have social distanced with the normal flu, and that is something we do not do in anyway, but it is deadlier would you not say? In the past we have not seen any healthcare system overwhelmed with the normal flu.

Your next question is... are they overwhelmed, and I would say some are where cases are the highest.

a reply to: Edumakated

What if its not just to hurt Trump?

We have been seeing a decline in.. "Social Health" (I guess you could call it), for many years. And, some might have noticed, the same lines that have been drawn in those regards are present with the reaction to this virus. The behavioral response is much the same as it has been for years, even preceding Trump.

Before all this, I believed Trump just served as a useful focal point for things that had already been ongoing. I see the same thing with the virus, and for the most part, the "sides" remain largely the same. Even when an individual shifts, its almost solely around established focal points.

originally posted by: rickymouse
Trump, just like a lot of intelligent people were buffaloed by improper interpretations of evidence submitted by individuals that were supposed to be stating facts not fiction.

I'm going to see how the next 2 weeks play out.. Maybe Trump was right after all in suggesting that by Easter things will get better.

a reply to: neformore

Jumping to conclusions *is* dangerous, and that's exactly what happened here. That's what the models are -- conclusions based on incomplete information.

By now, there is a pattern emerging. Heavily populated urban counties have it the worst. They do need some measures for sure. For the rest, outside of hot spots and clusters like nursing homes, people could likely ride this out with some cautionary measures, but nothing like the heavy restrictions we see in places like NYC.

a reply to: JinMI

Neither have anything to do with this, so its a moot point, but as you asked...

2,977 people died on 9/11. The USA undertook two armed conflicts in response, which had massive public backing and changed its laws by introducing a whole slew of legislation.

Over 5k deaths have occurred in New York alone due to Coronavirus, and people here are saying that's nothing in "real" terms and everything should go back to normal.

I find reconciling those two figures and the response really difficult.

The 'patriotic' response to 9/11 was to back the action and support the troops.

The 'patriotic' reaction to Covid19 is screw the experts and let people die.

originally posted by: Serdgiam
a reply to: Edumakated

What if its not just to hurt Trump?

We have been seeing a decline in.. "Social Health" (I guess you could call it), for many years. And, some might have noticed, the same lines that have been drawn in those regards are present with the reaction to this virus. The behavioral response is much the same as it has been for years, even preceding Trump.

Before all this, I believed Trump just served as a useful focal point for things that had already been ongoing. I see the same thing with the virus, and for the most part, the "sides" remain largely the same. Even when an individual shifts, its almost solely around established focal points.

What do you mean by social health?

originally posted by: Xtrozero
Your next question is... are they overwhelmed, and I would say some are where cases are the highest.

That was my next question and the answers are debatable.

originally posted by: ketsuko

Jumping to conclusions *is* dangerous, and that's exactly what happened here. That's what the models are -- conclusions based on incomplete information.

By now, there is a pattern emerging. Heavily populated urban counties have it the worst. They do need some measures for sure. For the rest, outside of hot spots and clusters like nursing homes, people could likely ride this out with some cautionary measures, but nothing like the heavy restrictions we see in places like NYC.

So that actually is all on the State level, and I think 99% of the time they all went this way to cover thy ass as when one state did it the rest followed in suit to not be caught as the state that didn't take measures and then there is a high death rate for that state. As much political as anything else.

a reply to: shawmanfromny

But isn't that what our state and local leaders are doing to protect the community? You know, the ones that tell us to follow the "shelter at home" rules or face fines. What "choice" do I have if I can be fined? It's OK for them "to tell others what they must do," but apparently it's OK for them to break their own rules.

Yeah, stupid dippy critters are saying and [U]DOING lots of stupid dippy things.

Our choice is civil disobedience. And yes we'll suffer for it. But someone's gotta be willing to take the hit. Lots of someones. It is what it is.

I look at it this way: There is no more important time to live and exercise your rights than when those rights are being trampled left, right and middle. If we choose to stand down, then we are simply exercising our right to do nothing for ourselves.

We'll take a hit either way.

a reply to: Xtrozero

Social cohesion, the ability to sit down and talk with people who might disagree, etc.

Basically, what I feel was a big driving factor in the formation of the US: Many different parts coming together to create something more than the sum of its parts. Without trying to convert anyone and everyone to think and react in exactly the same way. The only thing(s) truly agreed upon were elucidated in the founding documents, which ideally, enable drastically different approaches with the continuous idea that we can all fall back on each other should we struggle.

a reply to: neformore

Neither have anything to do with this, so its a moot point, but as you asked...

Strongly disagree. In both situations the government stepped in and enacted policies, taxes, eroding of rights all without any plan to return them.

2,977 people died on 9/11. The USA undertook two armed conflicts in response, which had massive public backing and changed its laws by introducing a whole slew of legislation.

What did this cost? What has it still cost in terms of dollars, rights and has any of it made economical sense?

Over 5k deaths have occurred in New York alone due to Coronavirus, and people here are saying that's nothing in "real" terms and everything should go back to normal.

Normal is subjective and it's my opinion that we will never be back to where we were before the pandemic. Much like the war on drugs and the war on terror.

I find reconciling those two figures and the response really difficult.

The 'patriotic' response to 9/11 was to back the action and support the troops.

The 'patriotic' reaction to Covid19 is screw the experts and let people die.

The patriotic response, like the request for normalcy if fairly subjective as well. Being a patriot doesn't involve relinquishing rights and wealth for security.

a reply to: KKLOCO

That sucks. I'm sorry to hear this. Must be hell for you and your family. I pray that they're not suffering.

a reply to: Xtrozero

The measures taken are all state and local, but the models are put out at the top, take 'em or leave 'em.

The economy is shut down because of those models, people are out of work because of those models, people are getting arrested for paddleboarding by themselves out in the middle of an empty ocean because of those models ...

And those models are based on incomplete information and may be horribly wrong.