CDC Director: Coronavirus Death Toll Will Be ‘Much, Much, Much Lower’ than Projected

originally posted by: AndyFromMichigan

originally posted by: Phage
a reply to: shawmanfromny


And it doesn't occur to anyone that the new numbers are lower because the measures are working?

But don't worry folks, you will always be able to say that the measures weren't necessary.

By the CDC guy's own admission, their models were way, way off. So, it's not even a question of whether the quarantining has done any good of not. It is apparently an established fact that the CDC models were built out of pure bullsh!t.

Don't worry, Phage takes climate change models at face value too...

originally posted by: Phage
a reply to: AndyFromMichigan

By the CDC guy's own admission, their models were way, way off.

Yes.

From the article in the OP. You didn't read it?

As you pointed out, those models that were done, they assume only about 50 percent of the American public would pay attention to the recommendations. In fact, what we’re seeing is a large majority of the American public are taking the social distancing recommendations to heart.

We cant all judge from our keyboards pal.

Chris Cuomo caught a cold and...

I ain't been to work in 2 weeks....

Lolz

originally posted by: AugustusMasonicus
a reply to: XCrycek

I was saying this was overblown last month, long before it was cool for those sites to do it.

It is hard to say. It IS much more transmittable than the typical flu and it is much more dangerous to older people/preexisting conditions than the flu that we still do not know yet just how bad it is to these vulnerable groups. The kicker is when you reach a point of needing a ventilator you have an extremely high chance you are going to die, period.

EVERYONE is social distancing like crazy, so how much is that playing into lowering the lethality numbers? Its kind of damn if you do and damn if you don't situation. Everyone does what is expected and we have lets say 40k deaths then many will scream WTH!!

To be honest I do think the next two weeks will tell us one way or the other.... Hopefully we end up at less than 50k...

Im ashamed to see how many on ats fell for this and unquestioningly demanded government take away our rights

a reply to: shawmanfromny

Did I miss something- is all this magically over now?

No... no it isn't.

While I genuinely hope you are right (and I do, so that life can go back to normal) the old phrase of "don't count your chickens before they hatch" comes to mind.

You just happened to be right, that's all. It could have easily gone the other way. You're not an expert or in a position to claim to be an authority for making such predictions.


a reply to: AugustusMasonicus

Use your imagination and imagine had it been as bad as it could have been what the result would have been. The thought of not making adjustments during a potential pandemic is absolutely asinine.

a reply to: Grambler

originally posted by: Grambler
Im ashamed to see how many on ats fell for this and unquestioningly demanded government take away our rights

What rights have been taken away?
The right to eat at Applebee's?

All I see are temporary restrictions

originally posted by: Grambler
Im ashamed to see how many on ats fell for this and unquestioningly demanded government take away our rights

And they paid for it with their tax dollars....Where do they think that stimulus money came from.

Taking money from taxpayers and giving it to bail out big business to prop up the market.

There will never be a normal, to much damage has been done.

originally posted by: AndyFromMichigan

originally posted by: Phage
a reply to: shawmanfromny


And it doesn't occur to anyone that the new numbers are lower because the measures are working?

But don't worry folks, you will always be able to say that the measures weren't necessary.

By the CDC guy's own admission, their models were way, way off. So, it's not even a question of whether the quarantining has done any good of not. It is apparently an established fact that the CDC models were built out of pure bullsh!t.

What is hilarious is that all of us simpletons knew this from the start by applying some basic common sense and asking more thorough questions. However, we get shouted down by the academic eggheads who are so caught up in their models they can't see the assumptions were garbage or the results it was spewing out. Garbage in, Garbage Out.

While I don't have a Ph.D, I did quite a bit of complex modeling in a business environment. Companies literally making hundreds of million and billion dollar decisions based on models I was working on. I know the kind of questions that get asked when people want to make sure the model is reasonably accurate. I didn't see those questions being asked about any of these models or situation.

originally posted by: neformore
a reply to: shawmanfromny

Did I miss something- is all this magically over now?

No... no it isn't.

While I genuinely hope you are right (and I do, so that life can go back to normal) the old phrase of "don't count your chickens before they hatch" comes to mind.

I don't think anybody thinks this one is over.
Honestly I think it will hit real hard in October or November...

But it does appear that the chance of death was greatly exaggerated.

originally posted by: neformore
a reply to: shawmanfromny

Did I miss something- is all this magically over now?

No... no it isn't.

While I genuinely hope you are right (and I do, so that life can go back to normal) the old phrase of "don't count your chickens before they hatch" comes to mind.

One could also point out that defaulting to Chicken Little is pretty damn close to Crying Wolf, also.

If people aren't supposed to listen to admitted poor numbers work, and a downturn in cases & admittance, you need to own up to the overreacting EOTWAWKI hysteria to be taken seriously from here out.

a reply to: Grambler

A meaningful percentage of the population have been primed to do just that, for years.

You can see the marks.. Many are examining all this solely through the lens of SARS-CoV-2. But, we can still see plenty of effects of the previous focal points: Trump, even "racism," etc. Many terms and concepts that saw a massive increase in use at roughly the same time.

When all this started, and folks saw the news/videos coming out of China, they had certain expectations. Based on distrust, the immediate assumption by many (myself included), was that this was substantially worse than authorities let on. Very few stopped to think "hey, maybe its the other way 'round."

Still serious, mind you, but Im the type to think that we really should have examined our response to such things years ago, alongside a few other topics.

But.. what if certain controlling interests piggybacked on a novel virus (something that bites at our deepest fears) in order to further cement their position, at the same time as disrupting social cohesion?

Thats.. a very different discussion.

a reply to: Grambler

I'm more ashamed to see how many armchair experts doubt the medical professionals who are fighting this worldwide, and how many people jump to negative conclusions about measures that actually do save lives.

Its those kind of #ty attitudes hat could ultimately do considerably more damage in the long term.

This thing doesn't have to kill millions (but has the potential to) to choke up the healthcare systems, which then may see rises in collateral deaths. It seems people are too thick to understand that and would rather put money over people.

originally posted by: Grambler
Im ashamed to see how many on ats fell for this and unquestioningly demanded government take away our rights

Well hell man..its all over..lets go back to normal.... Sushi at 8 O'clock?

originally posted by: olaru12

Taking money from taxpayers and giving it to bail out big business to prop up the market.

This statement sure gets old....

originally posted by: neformore
a reply to: Grambler

I'm more ashamed to see how many armchair experts doubt the medical professionals who are fighting this worldwide, and how many people jump to negative conclusions about measures that actually do save lives.

Its those kind of #ty attitudes hat could ultimately do considerably more damage in the long term.

This thing doesn't have to kill millions (but has the potential to) to choke up the healthcare systems, which then may see rises in collateral deaths. It seems people are too thick to understand that and would rather put money over people.

What's your opinion on the war on drugs? On terror?

a reply to: Nyiah

I've been saying from Day 1 it is mass hysteria brought on by social media, bias mainstream media, and politicians looking to hype up situation to hurt Trump.

originally posted by: Xtrozero
It IS much more transmittable than the typical flu...

Is it? Or is it the same as other strains with the exception that this is a new one?