China Appears to Have an Operational Antisatellite Missile

While the world is a wee bit distracted, a number of events are unfolding. A good number of them are Chinese in origin. We had the laser tag of the US Navy P-8 Poseidon ASW bird by the Chinese. The Chinese have built a new base on Fiery Cross Reef in the South China Sea. These Chinese have also been attempting to interfere with Taiwan working with the World Health Organization for dealing with covid-19. Another potential event is China may have made their antisatellite missile system operational.

An Aviation Week article[1] ran this last week with the claim China's ASAT program had put into operation the first missile system. The missiles are intended to down low earth orbit sats, not higher (MEO or GEO[2]). They are mounted on mobile TELs, or transporter erector launchers (mega trucks, sorta). It appears there are two missiles per TEL. They can be relocated so as to not be vulnerable to air strike or even nukes. China has demonstrated orbital rockets launched from TELs before and also uses their TELs for their long range ballistic missiles, like the DF-21[3].

This missile is probably the end result, or perhaps the first operational result, of the infamous asat shot the Chinese did back during the Bush administration[4]. This caused an enormous amount of debris and was widely condemned. The Chinese have continued with their testing since then, but have been more careful[5].

The Chinese have outright stated their purpose in developing the weapons have been to deal with the US military. The US style of warfare has treated space as a safe haven and has become dependent on/exploited our overwhelming access to space (depending on your POV) to fight our wars. Imagery and communications are something the warfighters use extensively, whether it be for planning and execution of operations, controlling drones or even calling customer support[6]. Additionally, our KH-11 spysats orbit at approximately 250 km (~155 miles) and would definitely be in range of this new Chinese weapon. While the NRO keeps a couple birds ready to be mounted to fly as emergency measures, it would still take nontrivial amounts of time to recover from the loss of a Keyhole.

This is not the only ASAT weapon the Chinese are working on. There is an ASAT laser expected to go into operation in the next year or two. There are also other missile weapons and possibly coorbital ones like the Russians have[7].

The US doesn't have an as yet officially functional asat weapon. However, the Standard Missile -3 can be modified to down LEO satellites[8]. Additionally, the weapons grade lasers the US is working on for all three major branches, are perfectly capable of destroying satellites. Those lasers are a few years away from initial operational capability though.

Even after the US deploys its own asat capabilities, the highest ground - space - is no longer a safe haven.



1. aviationweek.com...
2. MEO: Medium Earth Orbit, GEO: Geo synchronous or Geostationary, not the same.
3. en.wikipedia.org...
4. en.wikipedia.org...
5. freebeacon.com...
6. www.businessinsider.com...
7. www.theverge.com...
8. en.wikipedia.org...

a reply to: anzha

Excellent article , very interesting.

It's no wonder trump has been trying to shake nato into life , and no wonder they don't fancy a showdown particularly much ! Just the hypersonic missiles are enough of a deterrent , and given the joint operations of the sco / bricas , the us has met its match.

NDA prevents disclosing our capability. Rest assured they are formidable.

Oh right, but you're privy
a reply to: Plotus

a reply to: anzha

the US had a functional ASAT in the 1980s

anyone who believes that they are not 101% up to speed in 2020 - pleease U2U me - i have a bridge to sell you

caveat - i am not claiming there are deployed US units - with ready ASATs - but the knowledge base - testing and specs - are all there and ready

originally posted by: hombero
Oh right, but you're privy
a reply to: Plotus

No, beyond a wink and a nod in conversation with....... have a good day
Lets not also forget our Buddy India, just a missile's throw away.

a reply to: ignorant_ape

The knowledge base is there, but it's a non trivial challenge to go from knowledge base to operational. Especially since the company that built our one aircraft mounted missile no longer exists.

TheseOP's have us defeated or falling behind. Remember Trump saying he was not going to 'telegraph' out strategies and abilities...!

Knowing several people in the defense trade, once in a while you know when their up to something. Demeanor and such. You never discuss 'stuff' # 1 rule.

Lol get em out you big pansies a reply to: Plotus

a reply to: Plotus

Because in multiple areas we ARE playing catch up. They hamstrung multiple fields, including ASAT systems in the 80s. That's not something you fix overnight.

There's a big difference between being up to something and having existing systems in place and ready to go. We lost a lot of ground between the 90s cuts, and sequestration. Again, that's not something you fix overnight. I'll almost guarantee we have systems in the works, possibly even as far as testing, or very limited operational capacity. That doesn't mean we're ahead of everyone else, or even on par.

The Star link satellite system will make anti-satellite weapons a thing of the past . It’s kind a hard to shoot down 42,000 satellites. They could also take some other satellite with the independent maneuverability .

China’s working on yesterday‘s game the US is looking to the future .

The satellites cost $1 million each and will except any electronics package designed for it .

Tomorrow

a reply to: anzha

I hope they can launch under a solar flare type EM effect.

a reply to: Fallingdown

Remind me again: how much does a single shot for a laser cost?

China blows up a sattalight years ago.
people got mad over the shrapnel flying all over.

We have a mini drone space shuttle up in space for years at a time doing God knows what. I would imagine it is capable of taking out satellites.

To destroy another nation's satellites is to invite a preemptive nuclear strike. The only reason for doing so would be to blind your enemies sight and having done that one could expect they would figure you intend to attack. They would attack first and WWW III would be on. My best,

a reply to: anzha

Good point. Now let me ask you a question. What would the lifespan of that laser be after its first few shots .?

Zap can you give the number of our military satellites I’m sure.

A wild guess on my part would be 20 . China might be able to knock those out of the sky .

But do you think the Chinese would be able to shoot down 42,000 satellites that I read were about the size of the steamer trunk ? Think Sherman tank or T-34

Same concept

So that object that went past the space station in feb 2020

Was never the Cygnus 11 or that other but of junk they claimed it was

wouldn't any ICBM be considered an Anti-satellite missile ? Just strap an EMP to an ICBM and boom you could knock out massive chunks of anyones Sattelite grid including ours

You can't seriously expect a missile to be capable of hitting a Moving Satellite or maybe it could I'm not sure , but aren't sattelites moving like 1000's of mph hitting any one single satellite would be very difficult but sending an EMP into the Same orbit as the satellite now that I can see working

a reply to: asabuvsobelow

Hitting a satellite is actually comparatively easy. It's fast, yes, but it can't maneuver and is on a predictable path. It's just a matter of putting a KV in the right place at the right time.