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What's Up With This Asteroid Stuff

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posted on Apr, 1 2020 @ 05:44 PM
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a reply to: nerbot

You might notice that I wasn't replying to you.



posted on Apr, 1 2020 @ 05:44 PM
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originally posted by: Phage
a reply to: Murgatroid

Tom Horn is wrong.
But that's not the asteroid we're talking about. We're talking about this one.
ssd.jpl.nasa.gov...


How big is that one? and what kind of impact would it have if it hit?



posted on Apr, 1 2020 @ 05:50 PM
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a reply to: SailorJerry

2-4 km.
It would be bad. Really bad.



posted on Apr, 1 2020 @ 05:51 PM
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originally posted by: Phage
a reply to: SailorJerry

2-4 km.
It would be bad. Really bad.


ooo were talking kilometers, yeah, well in that case, we prob wouldnt have to think about it for very long if it did.



posted on Apr, 1 2020 @ 05:54 PM
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a reply to: SailorJerry

The end scene from the film "Knowing" comes to mind...



Images from "Killer Asteroids" blast radius simulator (www.killerasteroids.org...)



posted on Apr, 1 2020 @ 05:56 PM
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originally posted by: Phage
a reply to: nerbot

You might notice that I wasn't replying to you.


I did notice.

Your ridicule also applied to my own comment.

Did you notice?

Let's move on.



posted on Apr, 1 2020 @ 05:56 PM
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a reply to: SailorJerry

The size makes it pretty easy for astronomers to spot. That's the good thing about the big ones.



posted on Apr, 1 2020 @ 06:01 PM
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a reply to: Phage

That's what I've been thinking.
I'd be more worried about the tiny fast ones.



posted on Apr, 1 2020 @ 06:12 PM
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For about 25 of the 35 years I worked for NASA, asteroid defense was one of the topics I worked on. Here is a brief summary of our understanding of the asteroid threat as it has evolved over the last 20 years or so:

Standard models of the Solar System indicate that collisions between planets and smaller bodies were very frequent in the early days of the Solar System. All that is supposed to have ended about 4 Billion years ago. But by the mid 1990s, many astronomers who study these things figured out that the Solar System is actually continually sending asteroids inward from the asteroid belt toward the inner planets. This is caused by small but persistent gravity forces between Mars and Jupiter, which straddle the asteroid belt. The rate at which these objects are flung into the inner Solar System is very low, but it is not zero. When this realization dawned, astronomers figured out that we could not just assume Earth was safe from all asteroid collisions, just because the big ones happened 4 billion years ago.

By 1998, enough of these astronomers had persuaded Congress that we should take the threat seriously and do something about it. Congress directed NASA to initiate project Safeguard, to first of all try to figure out how big the threat was. Asteroids come in all sizes, from the size of a pea to 100s of km in diameter. However, the bigger an asteroid is, the rarer it is. The calculation was that asteroids 1 km in diameter or larger were big enough to cause global scale catastrophes if they hit. So Congress directed NASA to execute Safeguard to detect and track at least 90% of the objects 1 km in diameter and bigger that were on trajectories near enough to Earth to be potentially hazardous. These are Near Earth Objects, or NEOs. Detecting and tracking 1 km diameter NEOs is easily done from ground based telescopes. In fact, many amateur astronomers worked on Safeguard as a hobby and discovered many NEOs. Observatories from all over the planet also contributed telescope time. By 2011, Safeguard had achieved its goal and found no hazardous NEOs of 1 km diameter and larger.

At that point, the survey was extended to NEOs of 100 m diameter and above. NEOs in that size range would not create global catastrophe if they hit, but they certainly could cause regional havoc. Massive tsunamis if they hit in the ocean and massive shock waves and fires if they hit on land. NEOs in that size range are much more numerous and much dimmer. Only very large Earth based telescopes have any chance of detecting and tracking NEOs in that size range, so backyard astronomers are no longer useful for that purpose. There are proposals to fly space-based Infrared telescopes to detect these small NEOs by looking for their heat signature against the cold background of space, and I think we will probably end up doing that. That should increase the detection rate by quite a bit and speed up the process.

Whenever a new NEO is detected, its orbital track is determined and JPL runs the computer model to extend its trajectory out a hundred years into the future to see if there is any chance it could hit Earth any time soon. So far, none have been detected on a collision course.

However, we still have only detected a small fraction of the 1 km diameter NEOs, and almost none of the ones smaller than that, which is why we still get surprised every now and then. The Chelyabinsk meteor of 2013 was one of those surprises. It was about 20 meters in diameter and resulted in an airburst of around 1/2 Megaton.

So yes, they can definitely come out of the woodwork, but probably none that are big enough to kill us dinosaurs.



a reply to: Crosswinds



posted on Apr, 1 2020 @ 06:13 PM
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a reply to: Phage




The size makes it pretty easy for astronomers to spot. That's the good thing about the big ones.


What are your thoughts on NASA's initial calculations Phage respectfully?
I mean the incompetence of the initial calculations being released and
then releasing recalculated findings seems at least suspicious to most
people and in my own mind rightfully so. How did NASA get it wrong
right out of the gate? And then even release those findings? I can't
believe that could happen

And do you just expect people not to think?



posted on Apr, 1 2020 @ 06:16 PM
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a reply to: carsforkids

I have no idea what "wrong calculations" you are talking about.



posted on Apr, 1 2020 @ 06:27 PM
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a reply to: Phage




I have no idea what "wrong calculations" you are talking about.

Sorry aren't we discussing Apophis? And I was referring to NASA's initial
calculations that Apophis would impact earth? You didn't know that or
is my information wrong?

Oh and it's fly by date is a Friday the 13th lol.



posted on Apr, 1 2020 @ 06:33 PM
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a reply to: Murgatroid
I put Tom Horn in the same category as the blood moon prophets.



posted on Apr, 1 2020 @ 06:34 PM
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a reply to: carsforkids




You didn't know that or is my information wrong?

Apparently your information is wrong.



posted on Apr, 1 2020 @ 06:48 PM
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a reply to: Crosswinds

I'm just going to leave this right here.....

Epic Ion Engine Will Power NASA's Test Mission to Redirect an Asteroid



NASA's DART (Double Asteroid Redirection Test) mission is scheduled to launch on 22 July 2021. It's a demonstration mission to study the use of kinetic impact to deflect an asteroid. It'll head for the tiny binary asteroid system called Didymos, (or 65803 Didymos.) This double asteroid system poses no threat to Earth.

The larger of the pair, named Didymos A, is about 780 meters (2560 ft.) in diameter, while the smaller one, Didymos B, is only about 160 meters (535 feet) DART will crash itself into the Didymos B. It's close to the typical size of an asteroid that threatens Earth.



posted on Apr, 1 2020 @ 06:57 PM
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a reply to: Phage

Well then it's by no fault of my own.




99942 Apophis /ˈæpəfɪs/ is a near-Earth asteroid with a diameter of 370 metres that caused a brief period of concern in December 2004 because initial observations indicated a probability of up to 2.7% that it would hit Earth on April 13, 2029.

Apophis

There are other sources as well. Or are you just avoiding my question?



posted on Apr, 1 2020 @ 06:58 PM
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The COVID19 is a real threat, that is why we are on lockdown. We are trying to flatten the curve to prevent hospitals from being overcrowded worldwide - it could even happen where you are from. I doubt anyone in government is aware of an incoming asteroid impact. There is an asteroid passing by Earth in April, and lots of people have been having asteroid impact dreams, however.



posted on Apr, 1 2020 @ 07:00 PM
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originally posted by: carsforkids
a reply to: Phage




The size makes it pretty easy for astronomers to spot. That's the good thing about the big ones.


What are your thoughts on NASA's initial calculations Phage respectfully?
I mean the incompetence of the initial calculations being released and
then releasing recalculated findings seems at least suspicious to most
people and in my own mind rightfully so. How did NASA get it wrong
right out of the gate? And then even release those findings? I can't
believe that could happen

And do you just expect people not to think?


I'm guessing that they found a mistake and redid their calculations, or double-checked their work because of its significance. And I think that conspiracy theorists are picking and choosing interesting stories they hear and painting them together into a larger conspiracy, kind of like science-fiction writing.
edit on 01pmWed, 01 Apr 2020 19:01:25 -0500kbpmkAmerica/Chicago by darkbake because: (no reason given)



posted on Apr, 1 2020 @ 07:02 PM
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a reply to: carsforkids

I see. In your mind a 2.7% chance of it hitting means "that Apophis would impact earth."

It doesn't mean that. It means there was a small chance with a much greater chance that it would miss.

And yes with a few early observations calculations showed that there was a small chance, within a wide margin of error. With more observations the orbital elements were refined, the margin of error got smaller.

That's the way it always works. Here on ATS, some people even think that means the orbit changed. It didn't.

edit on 4/1/2020 by Phage because: (no reason given)



posted on Apr, 1 2020 @ 07:04 PM
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originally posted by: carsforkids
a reply to: Phage

Well then it's by no fault of my own.




99942 Apophis /ˈæpəfɪs/ is a near-Earth asteroid with a diameter of 370 metres that caused a brief period of concern in December 2004 because initial observations indicated a probability of up to 2.7% that it would hit Earth on April 13, 2029.

Apophis

There are other sources as well. Or are you just avoiding my question?


That doesn't say it would hit the Earth. It says they initially thought it had a 2.7% chance of hitting Earth, about 1:37 odds. If they were saying it will hit earth, the odds would be 1:1 or 100%. As they got better and better measurements, those chances continued to go down. The odds are so low now that they can effectively say it's not gonna happen.

ETA: Sorry Phage already got to this.
edit on 1 4 20 by face23785 because: (no reason given)



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