GOOD NEWS - Oxford University estimates that 50 percent of the UK has already been infected

No rambling essay here, just optimistic estimates, stats, and the increasing likelihood that we will NOT all perish in an economic apocalypse via unending lock-downs beyond late-Spring/Summer.

We're not being told how many people have been infected and/or recovered, because nobody knows, except that the figure is much, MUCH higher than scattered test results allow. And test results are currently almost as useless as a tissue-paper ashtray in the grand scheme of assessing the overall danger of this particular pandemic. But there is another way.

Estimates from various sources in the UK range from 50% to 80% of the population having already been infected, but let's go conservative with this week's estimate from Oxford University of 50%.

nymag.com...

Deaths of people 'who have the virus' (important wording) have today topped 1000 in the UK since the outbreak began. The average UK mortality rate before the outbreak was up to 2000 people DAILY.

If (and it's a vital "if") these infected estimates for the UK are accurate, this is obviously very good news considering the pure mathematics and logic at play here if we just take time to think about it.


No more to add, just welcome food for thought that you won't find on any shop shelves.

Optimistic OP over. Normality can now resume...

a reply to: ConfusedBrit

We will see if its good news in a matter of weeks depending on how many die.

a reply to: ConfusedBrit

That is good news... As long as you cant get it twice. Also how long the antibodies last.

a reply to: ConfusedBrit

Shh! Don't say good news.

a reply to: ConfusedBrit


I just do not believe that 50% of the population "have" had it. I know a fair few people in the UK (but not everyone) and not one has had any symptoms that are exactly as the COVID-19 appears as discussed, many have had mild colds as is the case for most of western Europe in Jan,Feb but none thankfully have had the breathing issues and fever.

My biggest concern was I watched their news conference earlier where the gentleman stated " we knew this was coming since January and have been planning" (Ref NHS staff). So why the hell have masks and PPE ran out and you are just ordering them now??, also why have they not got Millions of home test kits ready to roll?.

Granted anyone that has worked in Government will tell you they cannot get people drunk in a Pub but the whole thing feels to be odd, my real concern is care homes and the cry for help ref kit and supplies.

I really hope this is the case and the UK does not start down the road as Italy but with Data from China seemingly completey false my guess would be they are learning the "facts" as they go?...

Was it not pointed out if herd immunity was to be rushed the death toll could as high as 250k?,.


...

I understand the need for these feel good threads based on assumptions.

Here's what I see.
The NHS is failing, they were unprepared, underfunded and broken
The government hasn't got a clue, honestly Boris was still shaking hands until they realised the reality of the virus.
The media is trying to regain its relevance by whipping up hysteria.

Every institution is rattled by this because its going to.impact everyone. They're all terrified of going broke or being found to be irrelevant. The whole system is in shock and they're all going in different directions.

Well not know the truth about this, if ever, until it's over. I don't have ANY faith anyone is telling the truth because they're all biased or thinking wishfully.

originally posted by: Petra137
a reply to: ConfusedBrit


I just do not believe that 50% of the population "have" had it. I know a fair few people in the UK (but not everyone) and not one has had any symptoms that are exactly as the COVID-19 appears as discussed, many have had mild colds as is the case for most of western Europe in Jan,Feb but none thankfully have had the breathing issues and fever.

Those symptoms only happen in a small percentage of people who get COVID-19. Most people will have no symptoms or just feel like they have a cold. Your anecdote doesn't really contradict the OP at all.

originally posted by: face23785
[Most people will have no symptoms or just feel like they have a cold.

There's zero proof of that. Just 4chan type forum speculation.

originally posted by: LordAhriman

originally posted by: face23785
[Most people will have no symptoms or just feel like they have a cold.

There's zero proof of that. Just 4chan type forum speculation.

Don't post lies.

Most studies have shown between 60 and 86 percent of cases are asymptomatic or mild.

a reply to: ConfusedBrit

Me, after all people have died from this crow disease in two months.

originally posted by: ConfusedBrit
No rambling essay here, just optimistic estimates, stats, and the increasing likelihood that we will NOT all perish in an economic apocalypse via unending lock-downs beyond late-Spring/Summer.

We're not being told how many people have been infected and/or recovered, because nobody knows, except that the figure is much, MUCH higher than scattered test results allow. And test results are currently almost as useless as a tissue-paper ashtray in the grand scheme of assessing the overall danger of this particular pandemic. But there is another way.

Estimates from various sources in the UK range from 50% to 80% of the population having already been infected, but let's go conservative with this week's estimate from Oxford University of 50%.

nymag.com...

Deaths of people 'who have the virus' (important wording) have today topped 1000 in the UK since the outbreak began. The average UK mortality rate before the outbreak was up to 2000 people DAILY.

If (and it's a vital "if") these infected estimates for the UK are accurate, this is obviously very good news considering the pure mathematics and logic at play here if we just take time to think about it.


No more to add, just welcome food for thought that you won't find on any shop shelves.

Optimistic OP over. Normality can now resume...

Here's the problem I see with that analysis.

The trajectory of any infection that occurs due to a novel virus (one that hasn't appeared in the human population before) will follow a bell shaped curve. At the beginning, it will grow exponentially, because everyone it encounters has no immunity. As time goes by, however, an increasing fraction of the population will have recovered and developed immunity, so the virus has fewer and fewer hosts available to infect. When the outbreak has worked its way through half the number of people it is going to infect in that first wave, there will be just as many immune people as there are susceptible people. After that point, the immune population becomes larger than the susceptible population and the outbreak starts declining exponentially. The absolute maximum fraction that could possibly be infected is 100%. That means that if 50% of the population has been infected already, the epidemic curve should have already reached its peak and started back down. But Worldometers shows that the UK outbreak is very definitely still on the exponential rise, with no slowing in sight. The UK couldn't possibly have 50% of its population already infected.

a reply to: solve

a reply to: ConfusedBrit
This is why we need those antibody tests which they're trying to work towards, so that we can find out for sure instead of having estimates.

originally posted by: DISRAELI
a reply to: ConfusedBrit
This is why we need those antibody tests which they're trying to work towards, so that we can find out for sure instead of having estimates.

I can't wait til they get those out. The disappointment among some folks around here and in the media when they find out millions of people have already had the damn virus and didn't die is gonna be palpable.

If I told you there were a deadly species of wood louse on the loose, for instance, and we needed to find as many as possible so we knew exactly how much danger we were in going forward, you might find a couple of these lice under rocks today if you looked. Tomorrow you might find a couple more. On Monday you may find four more. Should we then state that the number of these deadly wood lice have increased exponentially and if they continue to grow at that rate, we will be totally overrun by April and the planet will be saturated by summertime?
Or maybe, you could realise that you can’t find something if you don’t look for it. Finding multiple instances of something that was already there doesn’t necessarily mean exponential growth, it suggests that testing reveals widespread infections. How long they’ve been in existence is debatable, but there was a death in my area reported in the last week - The patient had passed away on March 3rd, suggesting they contracted the infection back in February at least. It’s a matter of perspective. With that in mind, the study could indeed be accurate.
a reply to: 1947boomer

originally posted by: Petra137
a reply to: ConfusedBrit


I just do not believe that 50% of the population "have" had it. I know a fair few people in the UK (but not everyone) and not one has had any symptoms that are exactly as the COVID-19 appears as discussed, many have had mild colds as is the case for most of western Europe in Jan,Feb but none thankfully have had the breathing issues and fever.

My biggest concern was I watched their news conference earlier where the gentleman stated " we knew this was coming since January and have been planning" (Ref NHS staff). So why the hell have masks and PPE ran out and you are just ordering them now??, also why have they not got Millions of home test kits ready to roll?.

Granted anyone that has worked in Government will tell you they cannot get people drunk in a Pub but the whole thing feels to be odd, my real concern is care homes and the cry for help ref kit and supplies.

I really hope this is the case and the UK does not start down the road as Italy but with Data from China seemingly completey false my guess would be they are learning the "facts" as they go?...

Was it not pointed out if herd immunity was to be rushed the death toll could as high as 250k?,.


...

I think it's already been reported that the figure is not based in reality, but a projected figure of assumed infected based on an unknown, and indeed God knows how much digital Lego brickbuilding went on...a bit like GISS and their carry on really, no matter how much you don't really know...some model has to be right, at any given time.
Sometimes I think conspiracy theories actually do much better, just based on any coincidental event that pops up and happens to be like a bus route with event bus stops that actually happened.
Of course the FT, now a sub-division of The Sun, had to be the drama queen..regardless of what the actual outcome might be.

There is no good news to be had as yet, not for the plebs...and we just now are hearing that the NHS failed a pandemic style practice operation in 2016...and that it was kept secret...eeewww! A pandemic/epidemic if you like scenario, just after a mad Max international collaborative experiment in 2015 involving BAT virus/s. Hmmm!

originally posted by: face23785

originally posted by: LordAhriman

originally posted by: face23785
[Most people will have no symptoms or just feel like they have a cold.

There's zero proof of that. Just 4chan type forum speculation.

Don't post lies.

Most studies have shown between 60 and 86 percent of cases are asymptomatic or mild.

Don't interrupt the fear mongering with facts and numbers.
It is not good manners.

a reply to: ConfusedBrit

Well there are doing pretty good if that's the case.

That’s completely false and I believe you know it a reply to: LordAhriman

They’ve only just started testing, so the curve will be on the rise....a reply to: 1947boomer