Evidence suggests massive death toll in China

Hello there!

This morning, as I followed my daily routine of checking out news on coronavirus I found a troubling article which suggests a drop in cellphone users (of 21 million fewer users) might be a sign of a massive death toll in China following the Covid outbreak.


I have been following the outbreak since early january, reading articles everyday on its development. ATS has also been one of my main sources in doing this. Unfortunately, once the virus spread in Europe info out of China has been scarce to say the least, though there were some hints things weren't looking up in China, despite the official claims made by the CCP news outlets. For instance, there still seems to be a lockdown in Wuhan according the the gps traffic tracker.

And today, I found this article which seems to fit the thesis that Covid has been far worse than what we've been told.
According to the article,

The number of Chinese cellphone users dropped by 21 million in the past three months, Beijing authorities announced on March 19. Deaths due to the CCP virus may have contributed to the high number of account closings.

Cellphones are an indispensable part of life in China.

“The digitization level is very high in China. People can’t survive without a cellphone,” Tang Jingyuan, a U.S.-based China affairs commentator, told The Epoch Times on March 21. “Dealing with the government for pensions and social security, buying train tickets, shopping … no matter what people want to do, they are required to use cellphones.

Of course, this is no hard evidence on the death toll Covid might have had, but it is a clear hint things may have gottten out of control over there. A hint, which is at this point, the best we can hope for to really know what going on over there.
I think this thread might be a good opportunity to put together whatever info we have about China's situation, in order to connect the dots and test the credibility of the claim made by the newspaper.


PS: The Epoch Times is a hard-line antichina newspaper form Singapore, which hurts the credibility of any article they published (They refer to Covid as the "CCP Virus"). In spite of this, facts are facts, and the data they offer may very well be accurate on this matter.

PS2: Sorry for any grammar mistakes, I'm not a native, I hope I managed to get the message across.


Link to the article, it's worth reading:
21 Million Fewer Cellphone Users in China May Suggest a High CCP Virus Death Tol

Could it perhaps be because many businesses are shut down? No way in hell can you cover up 21 million deaths, not even in China. How about foreigners who were evacuated from China after the outbreak? They too had phones

originally posted by: payta
PS2: Sorry for any grammar mistakes, I'm not a native, I hope I managed to get the message across.

Good enough for me!! I'm glad I don't have to translate my rotten English into your language.

I've been waiting to hear these kinds of stories from some of my old friends who remained in the Intel World. The silence is actually deafening. I don't know what that means. Maybe I don't have friends anymore.

Good reporting.

S&F

Could be the troll farms being shut down

a reply to: payta

This is the CCP we are talking about, as well as a pandemic, so the reasons for that could be numerous.

I wouldnt be surprised if things are looking grim there though..

I think they are going to have some real trouble on their hands with people that might have passed away inside buildings, etc.

The Epoch Times really is that the news source we are relying upon now.

originally posted by: putnam6
The Epoch Times really is that the news source we are relying upon now.

Apparently, I knew even before I clicked on this thread it would be some obscure observation which links invisibly to fatalities caused by covid-19

Evidence suggests massive death toll in China

A theory, which is shaky at best, does not constitute evidence

Could be deaths or maybe just censorship.

a reply to: putnam6

I know, I know. But reallu to have to look through the bias at some point, speacilly when it comes from China, And in the article they've done a good job at looking at the data. Let me quote some of it for those who skipped it.

On migrant workers:

The big question is whether the dramatic drop in cellphone accounts reflects the account closings of those who have died due to the CCP virus.
“It’s possible that some migrant workers had two cellphone numbers before. One is from their hometown, and the other is from the city they work in. In February, they might close the number in the city they work in because they couldn’t go there,”

On people having more than a cellphone:

China allows each adult to apply for at most five cellphone numbers. Since Feb. 10, the majority of Chinese students have taken online classes with a cellphone number due to their schools being ordered to stay closed. These students’ accounts are under their parents’ names, which means some parents needed to open a new cellphone account in February.

On the economic consequences of the lockdown on the number of users:

The economic dislocation caused by shutdowns in China may have also led some people who have an extra cellphone to cancel it. With business poor or stopped, they may not want to carry the extra expense.


“At present, we don’t know the details of the data. If only 10 percent of the cellphone accounts were closed because the users died because of the CCP virus, the death toll would be 2 million,” Tang said.

a reply to: payta

There has been quite an economic toll there as well, lots of people without jobs not ablento pay the cell phone bill. China's corporations aren't known for their altruism.

a reply to: XCrycek

That seems reasonable.

a reply to: Edumakated

Also reasonable.

a reply to: Edumakated

I don't trust the numbers China is reporting. I don't trust the numbers that we are reporting. But I too would think censorship before deaths at that number.

a reply to: XCrycek

This is addressed in the article, they look into migrant workers and people having to cancel their cellphone lines due to the economic distress.

This tidbits from the article are quite revealing on this matter

China Mobile is the largest carrier, holding about 60 percent of the Chinese cellphone market. It reported that it gained 3.732 million more accounts in December 2019, but lost 0.862 million in January 2020 and 7.254 million in February 2020.

China Mobile’s performance in the same months in 2019 was markedly different; it gained 2.411 million more accounts in January 2019 and 1.091 million more in February 2019

That's a loss of more than 8.000 users in 60 days, against a gain of 3.5 for the same period of time a year earlier. Taking these numbers, it account for a real drop of about -300%.
These are all official statistics.
Finally, even if the loss of 11.500 million cellphones contracts is not a direct consequence of covid fatality, what if only 1% of these lines have been canceled because of death?

If it is fake I think it is still a very interesting approach to suggest they had mass deaths. Its like saying there has been a reduction in 20% toilet paper usage...

originally posted by: [post=25048914]Zcustosmorum[/post
A theory, which is shaky at best, does not constitute evidence

The theory is the fatality rate has been higher than the one officially reported.
The evidence is there's 21 millions fewer lines. That's a statistic provided by the CCP.

The theory may be shaky, but the evidence still stands.

I'm not claming the death toll in China is 21 millions. Far from it. I'm hoping we can look into the statistics and try to figure out what it all means.
I believe other information or data from China might be useful in order to clear the air on the matter.

Let's keep in mind China has reported 3,500 deaths.

originally posted by: payta
a reply to: XCrycek

This is addressed in the article, they look into migrant workers and people having to cancel their cellphone lines due to the economic distress.

This tidbits from the article are quite revealing on this matter

China Mobile is the largest carrier, holding about 60 percent of the Chinese cellphone market. It reported that it gained 3.732 million more accounts in December 2019, but lost 0.862 million in January 2020 and 7.254 million in February 2020.

China Mobile’s performance in the same months in 2019 was markedly different; it gained 2.411 million more accounts in January 2019 and 1.091 million more in February 2019

That's a loss of more than 8.000 users in 60 days, against a gain of 3.5 for the same period of time a year earlier. Taking these numbers, it account for a real drop of about -300%.
These are all official statistics.
Finally, even if the loss of 11.500 million cellphones contracts is not a direct consequence of covid fatality, what if only 1% of these lines have been canceled because of death?

1 % of that would be 210, 000 deaths in whole of China. Btw. People in China aren't only dying of CoVid. How many of those who cancelled their subscription died of some other diseases?
You mention a gain of 3.5 users the same time last year. Well that's logical. People won't buy a new phone during a pandemic period when they lost their job and the economy is as it is.

originally posted by: payta

originally posted by: [post=25048914]Zcustosmorum[/post
A theory, which is shaky at best, does not constitute evidence

The theory is the fatality rate has been higher than the one officially reported.
The evidence is there's 21 millions fewer lines. That's a statistic provided by the CCP.

The theory may be shaky, but the evidence still stands.

I'm not claming the death toll in China is 21 millions. Far from it. I'm hoping we can look into the statistics and try to figure out what it all means.
I believe other information or data from China might be useful in order to clear the air on the matter.

Let's keep in mind China has reported 3,500 deaths.

You can't refer to that data as evidence related to CoVid mortality. It's evidence of drop in cellphone usage, not of CoVid mortality.

a reply to: XCrycek


Could it be their government turned them off to control the flow of information?

a reply to: payta

I've seen that report. Troubling if true, no explanation for the decline given.

One would think there is NO Way of hiding 11M deaths, there would be idicators of massive upticks in caskets of creamations. At the very least, we'd see evidence of mass graves from satellite imagery.