What makes COVID-19 worse than Seasona Influenza in one pic

originally posted by: FredT
While at this point the total numbers make seasonal influenza more deadly that's not bearing per infection. This chart by the CDC and WHO really sums things up. The incubation period, the spread and need to hospitalize are simply way way greater and at some point the number of case will jump as we start ramping up testing. This is why we need to flatten the curve to allow the healthcare system to deal with it.

First, when looking at the numbers, it is important to remember that this is a 'novel' virus. Assuming (and yes, this is still up in the air) that we do actually develop a level of immunity once our immune systems have been exposed and it is no longer 'novel', the next time it hits will likely be more in line with other seasonal viruses 'like the flu' (sorry, couldn't resist).

Second, ramping up testing will actually - if I'm correct - show a much lower CFR - even considering this is a novel virus - more like Germany (currently @ 0.2%), or SK (currently @ 0.8-0.9%), because I believe, as many apparently do, that this thing has been here for a lot longer than just a few weeks, and there are a whole lot more cases of people who are or have been infected but had no or only minor symptoms and already recovered, but aren't, and will likely never be included in any stats.

a reply to: FredT

Where do they pull the 19% hospitalization rate from? It's less than 1% in the US based on the stats publicly available. Do they count you if you just walk into a hospital to get checked or something? That 19% figure seems highly questionable to me, there's no way 1/5th of all those infected are sent to hospital.

Also we don't have any reliable methods of determining the fatality rate for the flu because the number of cases isn't properly recorded in the US. People really like to throw around this number of 50k or 60k flu deaths each year in the US, but that's really just a rough estimation. The CDC even states they don't record flu death numbers because people who have the flu and die often have other underlying illnesses which allow them to get the flu easier, along with a range of other reasons.

It's very disingenuous to say there is a 1-3.4% fatality rate for CV19 but it's a .1% or less fatality rate for the flu because most people who die while they have the flu aren't recorded as having died from the flu because the underlying condition is actually what killed them. It has been widely reported that the vast majority of people who died in Italy while infected with Covid-19 were already sick with other conditions like heart disease and cancer, yet every single one of those people are recorded as part of the Covid-19 death statistics.

CDC does not know exactly how many people die from seasonal flu each year. There are several reasons for this. First, states are not required to report individual flu illnesses or deaths among people older than 18 years of age to CDC. Second, influenza is infrequently listed on death certificates of people who die from flu-related complications. Third, many flu-related deaths occur one or two weeks after a person’s initial infection, either because the person may develop a secondary bacterial co-infection (such as bacterial pneumonia) or because influenza can aggravate an existing chronic illness (such as congestive heart failure or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease). Also, most people who die from flu-related complications are not tested for flu, or they seek medical care later in their illness when influenza can no longer be detected from respiratory samples. Sensitive influenza tests are only likely to detect influenza if performed within a week after onset of illness. In addition, some commonly used tests to diagnose influenza in clinical settings are not highly sensitive and can provide false negative results (i.e. they misdiagnose flu illness as not being flu.) For these reasons, many flu-related deaths may not be recorded on death certificates.

Frequently Asked Questions about Estimated Flu Burden

originally posted by: carewemust
a reply to: nugget1

If you go to Italy and ask around, I bet almost everyone knows someone who knows someone who knows someone who is in the hospital, or has died from the virus.

In America you would have to ask a whole lot of people before finding someone who knows someone who knows someone who is hospitalized, or who has died from Coronavirus.

You really think 60 million people probably all just know each other....

Let's see information in the chart was compiled by VOX..... garbage

a reply to: FredT

Case fatality rate is much higher than 3.4% on covid19info.live. It shows 4.1 and rising.

He’s the rub. Vox is Usually 💩

Why would you trust Vox with your life?

I am sure you can find a blue checked mark Vox Employee who thinks calling it kung Flu will kill hundreds

Italy and France are now reporting that 40% of adults who developed serious illness needing hospitalization were between 25 and 50.
This is not the flu and its not an illness only the elderly need to worry about.

originally posted by: carewemust
a reply to: nugget1

If you go to Italy and ask around, I bet almost everyone knows someone who knows someone who knows someone who is in the hospital, or has died from the virus.

In America you would have to ask a whole lot of people before finding someone who knows someone who knows someone who is hospitalized, or who has died from Coronavirus.

That WILL change in a few weeks..

a reply to: FredT

I think the hospitalisation and case fatality rates will be lower than stated in that graphic. They are dependant on diagnosed and confirmed cases when the reality is there’s far more undiagnosed.

New C.D.C. data shows that nearly 40 percent of patients sick enough to be hospitalized were age 20 to 54. But the risk of dying was significantly higher in older people.
www.nytimes.com...

Guess that might explain the extreme measures being taken.
I couldn't find the number of peopled currently hospitalized, but I imagine it's rapidly growing.

originally posted by: BadRandy
Let's see information in the chart was compiled by VOX..... garbage

Let see the data came from the CDC and the WHO. So what your take then?

We may be a bit late to flatten the curve but we must keep trying.

First: I am all for flattening the curve. And I applaud the efforts to rush out a vaccine.

But I do not agree with the numbers that Italy and other countries are pushing out: Most people are refused the test because they do not have severe symptoms. But Tom Hanks is one famous example of someone who DOES have the virus but nothing dangerous happens. Can anybody prove that there are not millions like him who did not get a test? If you only test people with severe cases you get a higher mortality rate.
I understand that the tests are limited, but then please communicate the numbers carefully.

THE important question for which I can't find an answer at the moment:
How many people have died in the first week of March 2020 in, say, Italy from ANY cause (including Corona, but also accidents, heart attacks, what have you ....)?
And then: How many people have died in the same week in 2019, 2018, etc.?
THIS is the only honest number that will tell us how dangerous this virus really is before everybody can be tested.

Does anybody have access to these numbers for one of the affected countries?

Another question: Is there a test for the antibodies, i.e. can a healthy person test whether he already has successfully overcome the disease?

originally posted by: SacredLore
First: I am all for flattening the curve. And I applaud the efforts to rush out a vaccine.

But I do not agree with the numbers that Italy and other countries are pushing out: Most people are refused the test because they do not have severe symptoms. But Tom Hanks is one famous example of someone who DOES have the virus but nothing dangerous happens. Can anybody prove that there are not millions like him who did not get a test? If you only test people with severe cases you get a higher mortality rate.
I understand that the tests are limited, but then please communicate the numbers carefully.

THE important question for which I can't find an answer at the moment:
How many people have died in the first week of March 2020 in, say, Italy from ANY cause (including Corona, but also accidents, heart attacks, what have you ....)?
And then: How many people have died in the same week in 2019, 2018, etc.?
THIS is the only honest number that will tell us how dangerous this virus really is before everybody can be tested.

Does anybody have access to these numbers for one of the affected countries?

Another question: Is there a test for the antibodies, i.e. can a healthy person test whether he already has successfully overcome the disease?

That is exactly the data we need. People are being given data points without any context.

Saying 300 people died in Italy on one day doesn't mean anything without knowing how many people typically die in Italy on any given day. How many 75+ year olds died in Italy last March 16th, 2019?

How many of these people would have died anyway? Maybe Covid is worse than flu, but do we know that even the regular flu would not have killed these old folks?

Another issue I see is they are saying the hospitals are being over run. Ok, but is it because of the virus or because of panic? Would many of these people just stayed in their homes for the regular flu but now everyone is running to the hospital even when they may not need to?

I do think Covid is deadlier, but I don't think it warrants the reaction we are seeing. It would have been far easier to focus on the most vulnerable populations. Nursing homes and elderly and have the practice social distancing and extreme cleaning.

My local whole foods instituted elderly shopping hours. So no one under like 65 is allowed in the store.

The "Vulnerable" that are at risk every year, we are told, are the elderly,the young and people with underlying illnesses. Until I hear about the rise in fatalities of alcoholics and junkies, then I'll treat it the same as any other seasonal cold. If a virus doesn't particularly effect the low immune system of those 2 groups, then I honestly don't see why relatively normal-health people should panic too much.

originally posted by: Middleoftheroad
How did they determine the hospitalization rate? Seems they just pulled that number out of their a**.

Like I just posted in another thread. If we calculated the death rate of the flu the same way they calculate the death rate for the coronavirus, the flu would have a mortality rate of 7.7%.

exactly. WHo says 250000 to 600000 a year die of flu, yet we dont see 1/100th of the draconian measures placed to fight coronavirus for it

Yeah, except those flu statistics are inaccurate the opposite way. All pneumonia deaths are counted as flu deaths. So, when you look at statistics it always reads “deaths due to flu and pneumonia “. And I assure you that all pneumonia deaths are not caused by the flu. At any rate, my hospital is full of people with unconfirmed covid, and it looks nothing like a flu season. Where are the deaths? Just look at the numbers. The patients are doubling every four days. Yesterday we had 9k. Today it’s 14k. This is just day 11 for us. By Monday it will be 28k. By next Friday it will be 58k, and so on. We’re at day 11 which means we’re still dealing with the first batch of infected, and only a couple hundred cases have resolved in death or recovery. The rest are still working their way through it. Follow the timeline.

So again, we still can't get accurate data about death rates for the flu. So any time you see the media comparing the worldwide death rate for this virus to the 0.1% death rate for flu in the US they are either being dangerously ignorant or willfully misleading.

originally posted by: lostgirl
a reply to: Aallanon

But you are not an ATS moderator who is also a healthcare professional!!!

I seriously doubt it's a fake picture!!!

What better person to hide behind a curtain...without needing a curtain.

Don't be gullible, trust nobody, this is THE conspiracy website and our motto hasn't changed.

I'm sure FredT is respected but FredT must respect scrutiny too.

BTW, nobody should doubt it is a genuine picture, but perhaps some may doubt it's contents.

STATISTICS.

And we should all know that a statistic depends on what information is used and how it is interpreted.

a reply to: Edumakated

Guys, the NIH estimated that each person catches a form of cold 2 to 6 times a year. I linked it a few days ago somewhere.

That means there are maybe 20 billion + cases a year.

I still can't find a good way to estimate the actual deaths from this, but it's gotta be much higher than the flu.

Yet this didn't alarm the govt or medical community the way they did over this.

I know it's BS and I'm overjoyed to see you guys questioning this and using rational logical thought processes rather than allowing fear and false virtue to control you into conformity with a mountain of lies and ill will.