DOW down 2000 pts.

originally posted by: eitea
Demand is strong for bond...

That's all you needed to post. Demand is strong and is expected to remain so for a very long time moving forward.

3.10.2020

DJIA recovered more than half of yesterday's record loss. Up 1,167 points today.

Source: www.foxbusiness.com...

originally posted by: carewemust
3.10.2020

DJIA recovered more than half of yesterday's record loss. Up 1,167 points today.

Source: www.foxbusiness.com...

originally posted by: eitea
a reply to: AugustusMasonicus

If you issue new bonds, that's value is calculated in dollars, then at it's substance it's like issuing more dollars, just in different form. These dollars will still be injected in the market as "virtual money", the representation of that dollar is the only thing that is different.

Right. Buy gold.

a reply to: Blue Shift

got to make this landing soft or else ya know.

Get DDT'ed.

a reply to: Blue Shift

You're on the money.... But it' not going to be BTC, it's going to be XRP. Bitcoin was the test bed. XRP will be the main player. Xrp have been kissing up to the regulators and banksters all over the world. Satoshi is the CIA.
BTC miners use enough electricity to power a town. That is not acceptable these days.
Is this the black swan event that will usher in a totally new global financial system???
.... We shall see..... I sold my BTC years ago, and I'm long on XRP.
I bought BTC at $200 but only because I couldn't find the money to throw at it when it was $40.
BTC's fundamentals were great at the time, but it's a dinosaur now.
I'm hoping I'm right about XRP like I was about BTC.

How much it will drop and when is always hard to predict. If it was easy we would all be billionaires.

I was expecting a drop before covid-19 hit. The virus scare just made it easier. I sold everything I had at the beginning of the slide. I lost very little as a result. Under more normal circumstances with all the indicators being what they are I would be looking for a slide from 28,500 to around 23,000, or, roughly 20%. That is a pretty significant drop.

However, this year there are several factors that make it much more difficult to predict. First, the virus has not done its worst yet, to mankind or the market. That will take time to realize its full potential. Now add the pissing match between Saudi and Russia, both determined to undermine the US shale market. Also, mid summer is historically not the greatest time for the market. I would typically be looking for a dip mid year and hope for a good Santa Claus rally at year end. That too is hard to predict this year because this is an election year. If democrats win the market will sh!t itself. All bets are off at that point.

So all the indicators I would usually look for are either linked to other less familiar unpredictable conditions, and/or, any combination of these characteristics could be significantly worse than the sum total of their individual affects.

My best case scenario is covid-19 is fairly well contained by mid summer and the saudi/russia contest stabilizes and leaves the market in the 23,000 range.

My worst case scenario is covid-19 steadily increases through summer and the saudi/russia contest drags on. That would weigh the market down more and make a buy-in less attractive pushing it to the fourth quarter. Of course, unless the election is clearly a foregone conclusion, I would wait until after to make my move. If democrats win I will be on the sidelines for a while. If all those things are at their worst I can see the market in the 16,000-18,000 range. Considering how overpriced the market has been for several years now I don't think a 30% correction with momentum from covid-19 and the oil price war is impossible.

Considering the nature of this set of circumstances, for me at least, this will not be a year of hit and hope investing. I would rather miss some of the run back in exchange for a little bit of confidence.

a reply to: Vroomfondel

Dow will channel sideways and take one last dip down to 23,000 and then turn upward at summer solstice. Actually just after summer solstice and the solar eclipse. That will be Week 23. It will be heroic.

I still standby my first forecast that had the DOW at 22K at Christmas/winter Solstice

I also guessed the DOW down to 24k in the Easter timeframe


so, expect a window of DOW at 24k-22k for the rest of year-2020 (from that 29k tops prior to the CV outbreak/crisis)
the S&P will follow suit … the N ASDAQ is less damaged from Pandemic issues but the QE Billions from Fed dry up
the Russell will become ghost stocks as thy will do poorly with pandemic issues & available customers/buyers/users

the Fed ((new utterance)) will soon reverse the lowering of fed-funds-rate...to pump up the 10 year Bonds to pre-CV interest rates to try to attract foreign capital from big global entities

a reply to: AugustusMasonicus

What goes up, that goes down. Yeah, but only keep your eye on the 1M chart and deny everything else. Feed your greed and enjoy the illusion until it last. In the end, pigs will still get slaughtered anyway.

a reply to: Alien Abduct

Gold is not the best precious metal for my taste. If I would buy precious metals, then I would probably look more into palladium. But currently is no time to put your wealth in any speculative market. Rather fund projects that have potential on producing something or offering a service, that would solve an actual problem.
Currently there is no reason to think that the speculative markets should bounce anytime soon, only pigs think of that because they are blind to the bigger picture. Players with experience and weight are currently using the pigs to soften their fall and there will be plenty of dead cat bounces where the pigs will celebrate that it is starting to go up again, and they bought in very cheap. Market pigs are short sighted creatures, and short game TA charts help them live in their illusions of greed and they are totally blind to common sense, to look at the bigger picture, if the financial chart movement is organic and natural to the way that the fundamentals of economy show.

originally posted by: eitea
What goes up, that goes down. Yeah, but only keep your eye on the 1M chart and deny everything else. Feed your greed and enjoy the illusion until it last. In the end, pigs will still get slaughtered anyway.

Call me when it's not going up and the rest of the world isn't buying our Treasury Bonds.

Oh, and it's the M1.

a reply to: AugustusMasonicus

I bet that there will be a plenty of captain hindsights flying around in around 6-18months, telling how they knew it all along that the markets had overreached to catastrophic levels. I wouldn't be surprised to find you among them, possibly with a newly imagined self-image.

originally posted by: eitea
I bet that there will be a plenty of captain hindsights flying around in around 6-18months, telling how they knew it all along that the markets had overreached to catastrophic levels. I wouldn't be surprised to find you among them, possibly with a newly imagined self-image.

Not sure what any of this has to do with bonds, currency or the M1. You just trying to shift the goalposts or something?

a reply to: AugustusMasonicus

I'm not surprised that you are not sure about it and actually don't see when the subject came into conversation. When you're shortsighted, then you are shortsighted.

a reply to: eitea

You claiming what I may or may not say in 18 months has zero to do with the topic despite you wanting it to be so. Try again.

a reply to: AugustusMasonicus

It was a personal remark on your character regarding the ongoing subject. English is my 3rd language, but if you are further way from it, then I understand all the confusion. Being positive, I must note that you can quote latin phrases in the internet, that must count for something.

originally posted by: eitea
It was a personal remark on your character regarding the ongoing subject.

That's nice, I'm not the topic.

If you want to address your inability to grasp what's being discussed, that is the topic.

a reply to: AugustusMasonicus

Irony is that you haven't contributed to the ongoing subject. I see some sarcasm that could also possibly be a sincere delusion, and then nothing. Then we're having this little dialogue here where you're the pig and I'm pointing it out.

But if the topic creator wants me to stop having this dialogue, then I'll stop. But I like this conversation with you because I don't like you.

originally posted by: eitea
Irony is that you haven't contributed to the ongoing subject.

I most certainly did, you wouldn't have bothered looking up what the M1 actually was and what it indicated. It's a shame you don't understand it fully but at least you're now aware of the metric.