TA-ANALYSIS: Has Osama Surrendered?

New analysis from Dr. Jack Wheeler seems to point to an admission from Osama bin Laden that he is no longer able to carry on his jihad against America. His determination is based on the intercepted communication between bin Laden and Abu Musab Al Zarqawi. The fact that bin Laden has asked Zarqawi to strike the US, to him, points to Osama's own admission that his is no longer able to direct an effective global jihad.



Dr. Wheeler's analysis in this article is made somewhat tongue in cheek at one point. It even includes this parady of the letter.

"Dear Abu. I'm afraid I must announce to the world that, as a pitiful schmuck hiding in a mountain cave, I am powerless to organize or conduct any more terrorist attacks on the Great Satan of America. Can you do anything? I know you're being hunted down in every mud-hole in Iraq right now, and it might be a little difficult for you to make your way undetected to the U.S., create your own terrorist network since mine obviously no longer functions, and start your own terrorist war there – but do your best, OK? I am depending on you, since our Islamofascist brothers can no longer depend on me. Yours, Osama."

Joking aside, this could be a deperate manuever by bin Laden to lash out at America as he has not been able to launch any strikes on the US in 3 1/2 years.

Related AboveTopSecret.com Discussion Threads:
NEWS: Officials: Bin Laden Urges Zarqawi to Hit U.S.

[edit on 3/10/2005 by phreak_of_nature]

Beyond your contention, I find it odd that even low-level attacks have not been carried out on U.S. soil since 9/11/01. Any kid with a chemistry set can make a reasonable boom that could hurt and maim. Guns are easy to get ahold of in the U.S. and yet no suicide-style mass killings ala Columbine. Any jacka$$ could drive a car into a gas pump and blow it up. None of these things have happened.

I'd say that either the terrorists suck at their jobs, or they aren't really trying. If these folks are so dedicated to killing infidels, why no small scale attacks? You could easily achieve a 10:1 killing ratio for each suicide attacker which means that 200 loyal jihadists could kill at least 2000 infidels. Nothing.

I really want someone to explain to me how, if Osama has been kept from organizing large scale attacks, he hasn't ordered small scale ones? It only takes one call from a satphone to say, go to the U.S., get a gun, shoot as many as you can before you are killed.

If you can't tell, I doubt the legitimacy of the whole Al Qaeda thing. I suspect that we made up the "non-fictional SPECTRE" to try to put more fear behind what is, ultimately, the work of small, decentralized extremist groups. Americans would soil themselves if they thought that terrorism was the work of small, unconnected, determined groups because that would mean that we'd probably never stop the threat.

I don't know why there haven't been any attacks since 9/11, but there may be some good reasons why. Among them are:

1. Increased vigilance
   
2. Iraq has taken the attention away from the homeland, for the time being.
   
3. al Qaeda is biding their time for a spectacular display of strength.
   
4. al Qaeda is impotent
   

Remember how many years went by between the first and second WTC attacks? Now is not the time to let our guard down.


[edit on 05/3/10 by GradyPhilpott]

Well maybe that's because there was no real domestic terrorism threat to begin with. Either that or the DOHS is doing one hell of a job. I tend to believe more of the former and less of the latter, given the way 9/11 went down.

Good post chaosrain. This whole "terrorist" thing has been blown so out of proportion.

I too am surprised by the lack of small scale attacks. But if you look at it, any attack that doesn't rival 9-11 would be a defeat for bin Laden. When you are at the top of your game, pity-patting doesn't keep you there.

What I expected was that smaller dis-associate groups, after having been inspired by the success of 9-11, would take the mantle and launch the smaller truck bomb type attacks.

I guess what we don't know is wether or not any attacks of that type has been stopped. The mainstream media doesn't report, Man doesn't bite dog.

I would agree with Grady's points. All of them are excellent reasons for the lack of yet another strike.

Originally posted by chaosrain

I'd say that either the terrorists suck at their jobs, or they aren't really trying.

I doubt the legitimacy of the whole Al Qaeda thing.

Americans would soil themselves if they thought that terrorism was the work of small, unconnected, determined groups because that would mean that we'd probably never stop the threat.

It would also mean that bombing two countries to heck and back again was militarily pointless.

Good post phreak.

Chaosrain, very good point also, after the initial scare of 9/11 I felt that the attacks were all it was to be.

9/11 happened for a purpose after the mission was accomplished it was enough for what it came next.

Is so obvious that anybody with a fair amount of reasoning can see. I imagine that if another attack is to happen it will be to finish what it was started on the 9/11 but for what I can see around, it may no be any need to sacrifice any more Americans.

O occurs is just my Conspiracy theory at work after all we are in a conspiracy site.

don't count osama out, an animal is always most dangeous when its threatened, when it looks like he is almost dead, he was strike back. It's far too early, especially with the insurgency and alqeda growing outside of the middle east (new estimates in britain say that there are hundreds of alqaeida members living in britain), to count osama out

I read somewhere the islamic terrorists view the conflict in terms of lifetimes, where we view it in 4 year presidential terms......it was mentioned earlier, they waited a long time to try again to bring down the WTC......

Samll scale atacks, or vandalisem, or what ever else you want to call it, have happened, just just have not been played up by the media.
Because it has been smaller scale I doubt Al Queda was directly invalved, small scale does not seem to be there style.

Originally posted by phreak_of_nature
Joking aside, this could be a deperate manuever by bin Laden to lash out at America as he has not been able to launch any strikes on the US in 3 1/2 years.

No joking here either, his most devasting assault to date was his successful psy-op on the America people in November of last year when he threw the election to George Bush with that video. If influencing an election of that magnitude against the best long term interests of America isn't terrorism, I don't know what is.

The failure of terrorist groups to have any success against us speaks volumes about something- I just dont know what about. I see basically three possibilities, although there could be others, or many variations on these basic themes:
1. It's nearly impossible to get past our law enforcement and intelligence, meaning that 9/11 was either an act of God or else was allowed to happen for political reasons.
2. There aren't really that many people out to get us. 9/11, wherever it came from, was the exception to the rule- there just aren't very many "lone gunman" types out there willing to bring the fight to us the way they do to Russia and Israel. (or maybe there are, but the lone-gunman types just give priority to the nations it's easier for them to get to.)
3. The War on Terror has been INCREDIBLY successful- God only knows how or why.


Long story short- lighting people and things on fire, shooting them, or blowing them up just isn't that difficult. I sit around thinking up ways to do it just because I'm bored. Either the means or the motive must be lacking for some reason not readily apparent to us.

Originally posted by Kriz_4
Good post chaosrain. This whole "terrorist" thing has been blown so out of proportion.

Yes it has, hasn't it?:shk:

MOSUL, Iraq — A homicide bomber blew himself up at a Shiite mosque during a funeral Thursday, killing 47 people, an attack that came as Iraq's main Shiite party and a Kurdish bloc said they reached a deal that sets the stage for a new government to be formed.

Al Qaeda relies on big, visible acts of terror to intimidate people. The US, on the other hand, has been slowly but effectively destroying the Al Qaeda organization bit by bit, piece, by piece, sometimes one terrorist at a time. It is working; we are winning. Now that muslims are turning against Osama, as in Spain, the end is surely near for their violent lives. The few remnants, the smart ones, will have to put their Quran's down and deal politically with the rest of the world if they want to survive.

Originally posted by RANT
No joking here either, his most devasting assault to date was his successful psy-op on the America people in November of last year when he threw the election to George Bush with that video. If influencing an election of that magnitude against the best long term interests of America isn't terrorism, I don't know what is.

Oh RANT! I really don't want to touch this. This seems to me to be better suited to Politics@ATS. But let's just agree to disagree on what the best solution for the long term interests of the country are. K?

In the inital reporting on this communique, linked above, I metioned that I believed it was a sign that Osama was now ineffuctual at attacking the US, and that he had annonted Zarqawi to do so for him.

I still think that's the case. I wouldn't say that the War On Terror is over and won, I just think that one generation of Mujahadeen has passed the mantle to the next.

Don't be fooled by thinking that we are too prepared for another attack. They can do it at any time. They are already here and have whatever is needed. It can be done at any time and is foolish to think that it won't again.

Worldnutdaily can't even report facts correctly, I'd think that they aren't a place to look for speculation.


There have been no attacks recently because there isn't any use in having lots of small attacks in the US, and because some plots have been stopped, indeed, the gov has admitted to stopping some, and possibly stopped others that were a little bit too disturbing to talk about or too secretive to reveal. Bin ladin isn't going to work on car bombs after completely destroying the twin towers and nearly destroying the pentagon itself. He might have figured on some ancilliary groups stepping up the general terrorism, and is focusing his limited resources on 'spectacular' attacks, the sort of stuff that bends your brains, like waking up to global warfare.

NOt to mention that al qaida does not have a state to operate in. Before 911 they were based in Taliban run afghanistan, guests of the state, heck, they were collaborating with them. Now they are permanently on the run. We don't see bin ladin broadcasting from non wastelands. It doesn't mean the database is inoperative, indeed, much of it success is simply from coordinating information. But it can't be too easy to operate a global network to begin with, let alone when on the run, let alone when you might not be able to even use cell phones. You can't radio or telephone operatives on teh other side of the globe covertly.

How about we throw a monkey wrench into this discussion and simply say that OBL is a "dead man walking" and that those Al-Qaeda leaders left are disorganized and seeking some semblance of unity. Propaganda works on both sides. As such, the propaganda being issued from both sides is that OBL is still alive and still in some sort of control of the whole outfit.

This would be called playing the 'Devil's Advocate'?




seekerof

Originally posted by Nygdan
because some plots have been stopped, indeed, the gov has admitted to stopping some, and possibly stopped others that were a little bit too disturbing to talk about or too secretive to reveal.

Can you provide some additional information on these? Has this been reported anywhere? I am refering specifically to attacks in the US. I think I can vagely remember some talk of attacks in other countries being thwarted, but I don't remember the US gov. and the FBI providing any details of attacks in the US being stopped.

The only ones that come to mind for me is Jose Padilla, and Richard Reid. Padilla's plot was really nothing more then a plot, and there is wide speculation that he had little more then an idea. Richard Reid's planned attack would not have been anything to rival 9-11, or even the "sort of stuff that bends your brains" as you put it.

Can you give us your information on these unimaginable attacks?

All these people who are writing seem to be unaware of may things.

I know there are alot of Americans, but Al-Quaeda has not been dormant and impotent since 9/11.

Australians will tell you about Bali, Spaniards will tell you about the Madrid train bombing of 3/11.

Al-Quaeda has a specific modus operandi. It is not Hamas, Islamic Jihad, Fatah or the Al-Asqa brigades or Hizbollah who are concerned with killing as many people as they can and murdering their own people from safe havens provided by Syria and Iran. Al Quaeda specialises (I don't like to apply these terms to murderous terrorists) in large scale co-ordinated terrorist acts involving multiple explosives in a very public setting with trapped innocents.

Lets face it the one thing that these guys are are cowards. They are suicide attackers which means that they do not have to face any consequences of their actions, their leaders hide while they send women and children out to kill and give their lives up once they have first been convinced that they are worth more to their families, friends and country dead than alive.

Al Quaeda is now targeting less alert countries such as Europe where their freedom of movement and the security measures are greatly reduced.

The reason why 9/11 happened was the appalling state of security on US domestic flights prior to the attacks.

I took a flight from Ft lauderdale to Newark the Wednesday before the attacks and the security was a joke, i would have had no problem getting any weapon on board as no-one even looked at my bag as it was passing through the x-ray machines, i walked through metal detectors without having to empty my pockets. I had a ticket that i did not have to show to get my boarding pass, just declare my name, and i didn't have to produce my UK passport either.

I was slightly shocked by this lack of security especially as i have often flown El-al and the security they have is first rate.

Having said that the 9/11 attack was amazingly well planned, to the extent that i still have suspicions that it was an old KGB contingency plan for destabilisation before a first strike.

Lets look at the evidence.

4 planes hijacked on a single day (the timing originally meant that all of the planes would have crashed into their targets at the same time but you can never trust airline timetables that much)

The hijackers were legally allowed to carry a 4 inch bowie knife onto the flight but avoided the risk of objections and detection by using box cutters which while being razor sharp were never thought of as a problem because they are a tool not a weapon. The entire plan was concieved for 4 simultaneous attacks, any discovery would increase security at other airports and they needed to wait until all the aircraft were in the air before taking over.

All the aircraft were coast to coast flights so that the size of the "bombs" would be the greatest.

This thing was meticulously planned with greater expertise than previously been shown by arab terrorists.

As a side point, this is my take on the whole situation. Arab leaders view conflict as a long term thing, something that enabled Saddam Hussein to actually claim victory in 1991. He was still in power therefore he had not been defeated, he said it was the mother of all battles, he did not say that it was the mother of all wars.

There was a meeting of terrorists in Baghdad in 1997 (I think, i saw one or two reports about it and it may have been 1996) all of whom had been funded by Saddam and assisted worldwide by the Iraqi secret service, Al Mukharabat.

Osama Bin Laden is essentially a schoolmaster for terrorists, a quirky older guy who provides all the money, gets the cudos and the blame for his pupils actions.

Saddam ordered the attack, Osama provided the willing killers and some ex-KGB guys (Al Mukharabat was a KGB trained organisation) provided the plan.

Now there are significant problems with Al-Quaeda conducting attacks in CONUS, they have (as someone else pointed out) lost their safe haven now that the Taliban have been ousted.

Pakistans rejection of terrorists (which have inspired a large number of al-quaeda attacks on the Pakistani Prime minister and army members) has squeezed Osama and the remnants of the al-quaeda leadership into a very remote and inhospitable area of the world where there only method of communication is to send someone out with a message and get them to somewhere where it can be transmitted without interception. This takes time and a great deal of effort. It has also prevented them from using Pakistan as a gateway to other countries whose borders are less well observed.

Their finances are severely impinged. The Saudis have been bullied into stopping some of the financing of terrorists, Osama can't get access to any of the family funds and many of the other financial routes have been blocked off. One possible reason for the UK having avoided any al-quaeda attacks is that much of their financial manipulations are based there and it is always a good idea to keep a calm zone around your base of operations. It is also possible that the UK was marked out for activities by the IRA and it's splinters (representatives of the IRA were present at the Baghdad meeting)

So they now have no base, safe houses that are limited to a few european and middle eastern countries (stand up Syria) Finances which are certainly not as free as before (terrorists need a great deal of money for housing, food and in the case of the 9/11 terrorists, alcohol and strip joints. These violations of Islam are allowed by the same mullahs as allow suicide)

NB read the Koran, [2:195] You shall spend in the cause of GOD; do not throw yourselves with your own hands into destruction.

[ 4:29] O you who believe, do not consume each others' properties illicitly - only mutually acceptable transactions are permitted. You shall not kill yourselves. GOD is Merciful towards you.

[ 4:30] Anyone who commits these transgressions, maliciously and deliberately, we will condemn him to Hell. This is easy for GOD to do.

To be honest, al-quaeda is doing pretty well considering they have been smashed as no other terrorist organisation has in the past. They are setting up francises and getting people to commit acts in the name of al-quaeda, they have also committed 2 of the worse terrorist acts ever since 9/11 and i would expect them to carry out another attack in the western world (USA, Europe or Australia) within the next 12 months

I hope that i am wrong, but in the mean time, lets reflect on a differnce in societies. In the west we have organisations which, when a teenager is depressed about his sexuality, abuse in the home, his sex life, money, ambition or exams, they are there to provide advice, help and comfort for them. In the Palestinian territories, Saudi arabia, Syria and throughout the muslim world they also have organisations who tell teenagers (a group with high rates of suicide anyway) that they are right, they are useless, they will never get a girlfriend, they are gay and should kill themselves, because then they will be able to have sex and drink, which is more than they can ever expect while alive. These organisations not only psycologically screw with these poor kids but give them help and the resources to kill themselves and make sure that they have extra reasons to kill themselves so they don't back out.

It is like staffing an orphanage with pedophiles or making John wayne gacy the head of a teenage runaways employment agency.