WAR: US will accept disarmed Hizbollah

The Bush administration has indicated that it would accept a political role in Lebanon for Hizbollah, provided that the group was disarmed. Officials insist that this is not a change in policy. However, it is a recognition of the political clout of the group. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice was noted to use the standard "terrorist" label when discussing Hizbollah in recent remarks to reporters. However she did say that the U.S. stance on the group was unchanged.



I find it hard to believe that the recent rally has turned around thinking within the administration. Its more likely another move to try to isolate Syria. If the can get a disarmed Hizbollah (Not likely IMHO) is further marginalizes Syria. But I doubt that Iran will allow the group to disarm as it remains one of the few remaining leverage items it has int he region. I actually think the administration is playing this one quite well and hopefully some positive change comes out of it.

US view of Hezbollah 'unchanged'

US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice has said Washington still regards Hezbollah a "terrorist" group, despite its recent show of support in Lebanon.
"The American view of Hezbollah has not changed," Ms Rice was quoted as telling journalists, after a newspaper reported a change in Washington's policy.

European legislators have accused Hezbollah of "terrorist activities" and urged steps against it.
news.bbc.co.uk...

...so it looks like we are heading for some stale-mate in lebanon ?

Actually if so, that wouldn't be necessarely the worst case scenario, because if Hizbollah start shooting at israel, US mightl hold syria accountable ---> attack, assad jr. not your friendliest neighbour, but will bend a little under pressure, I think he will forbid Hizbollah to make fancy moves to protect himself.

Likewise, if america pre-emptively invades syria, Hizbollah will hold Israel accountable ---> attacks

Reads like a deadlock to me? and well maybe it is best the lebanese situation keeps deadlocked until the Israeli and the Palestine Authority has been given the time to truely solidify their peace attempts and I would think that Bush would want the root of the problem solved first ???


[edit on 10-3-2005 by Countermeasures]

as posted by Countermeasures
...so it looks like we are heading for some stale-mate in lebanon ?

Countermeasures, though you make some valid points/observations, I do not see Lebanon turning into a stalemate.

Syria will exit Lebanon.
Hezbollah will either dismantle or shift its base of operations to Syria, while maintaining the semblance of the Hezbollah Party in Lebanon. I do believe that the people of Lebanon will seek peace and co-existence with Israel. The situation for Lebanon will be as Palestine: the people want and end to the cycle of violence (seemingly trending that way for now anyhow) while Hamas will continue to operate in Palestine and Hezbollah will operate out of either Lebanon or Syria.





seekerof

[edit on 10-3-2005 by Seekerof]

If it were to go via that route, also good, as long the main objective of a lasting peace between israeli an palestine people will be achieved, that's more than ok for me...

Originally posted by Seekerof
Syria will exit Lebanon.
Hezbollah will either dismantle or shift its base of operations to Syria, while maintaining the semblance of the Hezbollah Party in Lebanon. I do believe that the people of Lebanon will seek peace and co-existence with Israel.

seekerof

This will allow Hezbollah to follow the letter of the agreement (should they accept) while keeping their arms in Syria.

How could we enforce a disarmament of Hezbollah anyhow?

If they shifted arm to Syrai and then carried out operations, the link to Syria would guarrantee that they woul dbe held directly responable. Syria woul have to act out of self preservation.

as posted by jsobecky
How could we enforce a disarmament of Hezbollah anyhow?

"We" can not. It will either be up to Iran (the main backer of Hezbollah) or Syria, or perhaps the Lebanese or UN. I'm not seeing this happen any time in the future, expecially since France seems to believe that Hezbollah is not a terrorist organization.

Maybe Hezbollah will simply evolve from terrorist organization into a full-fledged political opposition party: Hezbollah Party of Lebanon, more so than they are now. Dunno to be honest.



seekerof

Hezbollah is not going anywhere soon, and they will never disarmed that is a fact. They are now more than just a “terrorist” anti Israel group, they are a very influential political party.

All your have to see is the recall of the Pro-Syrian PM, Syria may pull its troops buy still will keeps its political influence.

Seems to me that the whole incident in Syria instead of weakening the Hezbollah it just has make it stronger.

Occurs Israel was hopeful of a weakening.

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The Bush administration would accept a political role for the Lebanese group Hizbollah if it disarmed, U.S. officials said on Thursday.

But the officials denied a New York Times report that the administration had made a sharp policy shift and was grudgingly going along with efforts by France and the United Nations to steer the party into the Lebanese political mainstream.

"The report suggests that our view has changed on Hizbollah. It has not," White House spokesman Scott McClellan told reporters traveling with President Bush to Louisville, Kentucky.
U.S. Denies Major Shift on Hizbollah

Originally posted by Seekerof
Maybe Hezbollah will simply evolve from terrorist organization into a full-fledged political opposition party: Hezbollah Party of Lebanon, more so than they are now.

haha! hezbollah party of lebanon = 'party of god' party of lebanon

i can see it now....Hizb'allah al jumhuriyah al lubnaniyah (party of god of the republic of lebanon)

[edit on 11-3-2005 by General Zapata]

Right, an unarmed Hesbollah is like an unarmed IRA, still the biggest criminal gang in Ireland...

This is a joke, and in the light of the recent IRA atrocities, would be unacceptable.