Modeling a possible peak for the COVID-19 pandemic in the US

I have been following a friend's blog for a long time. It has been related to space topics mostly, but not exclusively. Other topics wander in and out. A recent post by a guest poster wanted to do a basic, even simplistic analysis of when the peak infections would be for the US when the pandemic inevitably washes across the country.



The whole thing is a 'toy model' and the author admits it. However, it tracks really well with the Spanish Flu peaks and, as such, it is interesting. We could see a couple months of really bad times if he's right. And the peak in September. If he's right. We'll see.

Enjoy:

selenianboondocks.com...

hacking the chart....it looks like everybody croaks.....

originally posted by: GBP/JPY
hacking the chart....it looks like everybody croaks.....

Hacking anything it shows what you want it to.

originally posted by: GBP/JPY
hacking the chart....it looks like everybody croaks.....

I don't think so....trump appointed VP Pence to oversee this coronavirus pandemic. He know what he's doing!!

www.wsj.com...

a reply to: anzha

Wow it peaks at 10 million infected per day. That's a helluva fast spread!

a reply to: anzha

What is the accuracy history of the person making this prediction? That will tell us how much faith, or non-faith, we should have in his/her prediction.

Flu season generally ends in mid to late spring, is corona expected to keep thriving throughout the summer months?

originally posted by: olaru12
I don't think so....trump appointed VP Pence to oversee this coronavirus pandemic. He know what he's doing!!

Exactly! Put the guy in charge who, as Governor of Indiana, turned Indiana's opioid epidemic into an opioid + HIV epidemic because he refused to accept the recommendations of medical professionals and science!

Nothing beats putting an anti-science guy in charge of a medical threat! You just sit back and relax while Mikey tells medical professionals to back off so he can pray the corona away! I'm sure he's busy on the phone right now expediting the southern border wall so no more of those Corona semi trailers make it across the southern border. It's so easy! The semi trailers even say "Corona" in big letters right on their sides!

originally posted by: olaru12

originally posted by: GBP/JPY
hacking the chart....it looks like everybody croaks.....

I don't think so....trump appointed VP Pence to oversee this coronavirus pandemic. He know what he's doing!!

www.wsj.com...

He only uses the best people.

Pence is in charge because he is pro american and wont stab trump in the back.

a reply to: agenda51

Yes, because here in 2020 being able to convince Dear Leader just how magnificent you think his invisible robes look is the MOST important qualification when dealing with scientific and medical issues of public health and safety.

Only the BEST partisan brown-noser will do! I feel safer already!

originally posted by: redmage
a reply to: agenda51

Yes, because here in 2020 being able to convince Dear Leader just how magnificent you think his invisible robes look is the MOST important qualification when dealing with scientific and medical issues of public health and safety.

Only the BEST partisan brown-noser will do! I feel safer already!

Why are you putting your partisan BS in this thread?
Maybe he should put one of the do nothing Dems in charge?
Give it a damn rest.

How is the Spanish flu a baseline? that was a whole different time with different healthcare and hygiene in the US. Deaths in China are staying at 3.4 percent, the recovery rate is ticking upward. Not saying we aren't gonna get hit but Spanish flu come on its not likely to even hit Swine flu levels.

If your bored

covid19info.live...

a reply to: carewemust

The people involved with the website are very intelligent. They have been right and wrong about several things in the past. This is a /toy mode/. Think a guessimate rather than a rock solid model.

I'd speculate that this is within an order of magnitude of reality, but suffers from being a purely math model.

So, take with a grain of salt.

It's still interesting and worth considering.

a reply to: RazorV66

Better yet, maybe Trump should forget about the partisan BS and put someone with scientific and medical credentials in charge of the situation.

I would be just as disgusted if some Democrat chose a partisan boot-licker with a history of ignoring medical and scientific professionals, and an HIV outbreak under his belt because of it. I have no allegiance to either of these two corrupt political parties, and America needs a qualified professional to lead this charge.

originally posted by: mikell
If your bored

covid19info.live...

Already got it bookmarked LOL, a little bit obsessed with it actually. But yea that's the numbers it's all there to see. I expect numbers to rise in the US but how much who knows?

I even like the live stream of the new hospital in Wuhan, as long as there are people buzzing around there daily.

originally posted by: putnam6
How is the Spanish flu a baseline? that was a whole different time with different healthcare and hygiene in the US. Deaths in China are staying at 3.4 percent, the recovery rate is ticking upward. Not saying we aren't gonna get hit but Spanish flu come on its not likely to even hit Swine flu levels.

Spanish is a baseline because the disease are tracking similar in statistics.

It has the same infectious potential to strike and infect and create a wave of illness where the worst effects will be its capacity to overwhelm critical systems like health care more than its ability to outright kill.

a reply to: ketsuko

Are comparisons between Spanish flu and COVID-19's ability to survive in water and on hard surfaces (away from a warm bodied host) really that comparable for modeling purposes?

It's my understanding that COVID-19 has an uncanny ability to linger around much longer than the usual "comparable" illnesses and flu strains. Up to 200 days away from a host was the number being tossed about earlier for COVID-19.

Carelessly rubbing your face after touching a contaminated surface 6 months after initial contamination, then having a possibility of contracting the illness seems like it would skew modeling numbers quite a bit.

originally posted by: agenda51
Pence is in charge because he is pro american and wont stab trump in the back.

Putting a politician in charge instead of a microbiologist or a medical professional, is stabbing Americans in the back.