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Los Alamos National Laboratory - Highly Contagious and More Infectious Than Initially Estimated

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posted on Feb, 16 2020 @ 02:03 PM
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The novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) is a recently emerged human pathogen that has spread widely since January 2020. Initially, the basic reproductive number, R0, was estimated to be 2.2 to 2.7. Here we provide a new estimate of this quantity. We collected extensive individual case reports and estimated key epidemiology parameters, including the incubation period.

Integrating these estimates and high-resolution real-time human travel and infection data with mathematical models, we estimated that the number of infected individuals during early epidemic double every 2.4 days, and the R0 value is likely to be between 4.7 and 6.6.

We further show that quarantine and contact tracing of symptomatic individuals alone may not be effective and early, strong control measures are needed to stop transmission of the virus.


The Novel Coronavirus, 2019-nCoV, is Highly Contagious and More Infectious Than Initially Estimated



PDF

Have gag orders been issued to hide the cases of the 2019-nCoV in the US?

Does anyone doubt that the government and media would lie to us about this?

What else could they be hiding about this virus?

New York Issued Gag order to Police over Corona Virus



None of this is good.

I hope and pray that they are wrong.

Things will never be the same if this is all true.

If this is really happening, it will soon be to late to stock up on food and water.

One more trip to the store today and I will be as ready for this virus, as I reasonably can be.

This new info confirms that self isolation will be your best hope not to catch this virus. It will buy you time for a cure or treatment to come available to you.



posted on Feb, 16 2020 @ 02:18 PM
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a reply to: LookingAtMars

If that's the case we are screwed already..besides if it was that communicable there would be significant signs here in the US as well, its not good but it is likely still manageable. LOL still ordering stuff just in case



posted on Feb, 16 2020 @ 02:22 PM
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Remember, around 1-2% lethal, and it is likely the weakest/older/already ill people. It's a big number if it makes it around the ball: yes! Extinction or zombie apocalypse: nay!



posted on Feb, 16 2020 @ 02:24 PM
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If you actually get the coronavirus, do you get lifetime immunity against it like some of the Flu viruses? Some of the original strains of flu when gotten by kids at a young age actually give the kids immunity to all variations of the virus too, for life. Meaning the kids actually only get a mild version of the flu if they are exposed to it for the rest of their life.



posted on Feb, 16 2020 @ 02:26 PM
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a reply to: putnam6



there would be significant signs here in the US


Not yet, not really. If cases are being hidden and not reported.

There can be up to a 26 day incubation peirod before sympotms show.

It may be weeks before we see it with our own eyes and know the truth.

I think the best early indicators my be the financial markets and reports from developed countries near China, like Japan.



posted on Feb, 16 2020 @ 02:26 PM
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I was a police officer when the sras hit and guess what...we were issued masks then too. Chill a bit friend we will get through



posted on Feb, 16 2020 @ 02:27 PM
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a reply to: rickymouse


If you actually get the coronavirus, do you get lifetime immunity against it like some of the Flu viruses?


Not from what I have been reading. In fact it looks to be worst the second time you catch it.



posted on Feb, 16 2020 @ 02:29 PM
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a reply to: LoveSolMoonDeath



we were issued masks then too


Where you under a gag order not to talk about new cases too?




edit on 16-2-2020 by LookingAtMars because: (no reason given)



posted on Feb, 16 2020 @ 02:35 PM
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a reply to: LoveSolMoonDeath



Remember, around 1-2% lethal


That is not a hard number I would trust.

Lets say it is though. If 1-2% of 60% of the US died from it. There would be chaos IMO.



posted on Feb, 16 2020 @ 02:38 PM
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The Los Alamos paper was all based on various computer models. Looking at the track records of computer modeling and predicting the effects of things like climate change, I don't have to tell you how skeptical I am of the accuracy of all of this paper's claims, do I?



posted on Feb, 16 2020 @ 02:41 PM
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a reply to: ketsuko


Looking at the track records of computer modeling and predicting the effects of things like climate change


Garbage in, garbage out. A lot of the data used for climate change models was garbage.



posted on Feb, 16 2020 @ 02:51 PM
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originally posted by: LookingAtMars
a reply to: LoveSolMoonDeath



we were issued masks then too


Where you under a gag order not to talk about new cases too?






No never, it actually was exactly like today: media were spinning and the world would just go, on except where it actually began and around the sick people. We has a specie are quite strong and we adapt.



posted on Feb, 16 2020 @ 02:57 PM
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originally posted by: LoveSolMoonDeath
Remember, around 1-2% lethal, and it is likely the weakest/older/already ill people. It's a big number if it makes it around the ball: yes! Extinction or zombie apocalypse: nay!


Lethality levels can mutate too. Remember that the bird flu is 70%+ lethal, but it hasn't mutated to a point of human to human transfer, but boy if it does, or if this virus increases its Lethality through mutations... It is looking at being closer to a 3% Lethality I think while being more contagious than the typical flu.



posted on Feb, 16 2020 @ 02:58 PM
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a reply to: LoveSolMoonDeath



it actually was exactly like today: media were spinning and the world would just go


I remember the media spinning it the other way then. Saying it was going to be BAD and look out.

Now the media is saying don't worry it is just the flu.



We has a specie are quite strong and we adapt.


I agree with that. Wu-flu will not wipe us out. It may change the world as we know it though. Like 911.




edit on 16-2-2020 by LookingAtMars because: (no reason given)



posted on Feb, 16 2020 @ 03:00 PM
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a reply to: LookingAtMars

Ok you are right, it would be huge. It would be all over the news, the hospitals would be full, people would die at home...yes. But if the 1% of elder and weakest of our society goes, even if it sounds heartless, we would go on. If you think about it, it's less than the summer vacation ratio on most essential services. And as I said, most sick people will be the older/already sick... We will see the end of this without major chaos I assure you.




posted on Feb, 16 2020 @ 03:00 PM
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The thing is in China you have a significant portion of people who rightfully so want to make the communist government look bad no matter what. Nothing wrong with that but is the truth and you have to take "news" you get from both sides with a healthy dose of salt.

Here in the US it's not gonna be as easy to hide people dying, not that they wouldn't try. It's just not going to be as easy.



posted on Feb, 16 2020 @ 03:02 PM
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The CDC is hiding real numbers and/or because of the normal flu mistakenly CV infections are being batched into flu numbers. Probably combo of both.

Media is is hiding it and one only has to recall the meeting WHO had with the big power players at Silicone Valley to realize the Google's, Twitters, and FB's are modifying their algorithms to that affect.

Just google cdc flu and corona virus and you will see almost all results are downplaying CV and stating the typical flu is deadlier.

They are trying to minimize panic. In my state the State Health Dept isnt even reporting possible cases using Hipa laws as their excuse.

We are 1-3 months from SHTF in America when the truth comes out. Maybe sooner if the R naught is actually 5-6% and especially if the mortality rate is well over 2%... just my opinion based on info I have read.

Lastly if you check Flight aware though the number of flights is way down from China there is still tons of flights from area's of China to the US and other major hubs! 14-24 day incu period and infectious with no symptoms is the perfect petri dish for major pandemic.

Prepare now...



posted on Feb, 16 2020 @ 03:02 PM
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a reply to: LookingAtMars

And what exact data are they using for this? Where was it sourced from? China?

As you say ... garbage in, garbage out.



posted on Feb, 16 2020 @ 03:04 PM
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a reply to: sirlancelot

If that were the case, there would be places where people would be dropping in the streets. There would be no hiding that. They couldn't hide it even in China.

Please, go find that evidence because it should already be happening here. There has been plenty of time for it.



posted on Feb, 16 2020 @ 03:05 PM
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originally posted by: LookingAtMars
a reply to: rickymouse


If you actually get the coronavirus, do you get lifetime immunity against it like some of the Flu viruses?


Not from what I have been reading. In fact it looks to be worst the second time you catch it.



So then they cannot make an effective vaccine against it if that is true.



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