We are all going to die! Over-reaction, or politically influenced myopia? A few points about Wu Flu

Good morning, all!

I don't post many threads, as I tend to come to the site to read and monitor UFOs, but I believe I might have some insight into a few things regarding the newest "Wu Flu" (as the kids are calling it), and whether or not we are receiving accurate information from both ours, and the ChiCom government. I am a Disaster and Emergency Management grad student, and have been in the military for the last 17 years- I am not a Dr., I do not work in Epidemiology, nor do I have any secret insight into the United States response. The following is merely a set of observations from an experienced and wary set of eyes.

Points to make:

1) Is China masking the true nature and danger of the virus?
subpoint-Why is this virus particularly deadly, or at least perceived to be such?
subpoint- what makes this disease more dangerous to the general public?
2) What are the true risks to the average American, Brit, or Canadian?
3) Is there an accurate way to track the resiliency and contagious nature of this virus?
and finally-
4) Why should I care?

1) Is China masking the true nature and danger of the virus?

Well, let's be clear; there is no benefit to a totalitarian dictatorship being honest and open about any internal threats to its society and citizens. We can say for sure that the Wuhan province is the center of it's biomedical research, and that there are characteristics of this viral outbreak that do not align with a naturally spread virus. and if this is true, China would react in a way that would limit the fallout, prevent a connection to their military's research of bioweapons, while simultaneously understanding the real risks involved here. So is it an engineered virus?

The deadly animal virus epidemic spreading globally may have originated in a Wuhan laboratory linked to China’s covert biological weapons program, according to an Israeli biological warfare expert.

Washington Times

or...
we can say that this is merely a lie!

That hasn’t stopped an outbreak of nonsense and conspiracy theories. On Sunday, the Washington Times — a paper with a distinct ideological bent — published an article claiming that the virus’ outbreak could be linked to a military lab in Wuhan.

ForeignPolicy.com

So who do we believe? I would say that the belief should be in the reaction to the virus, and containment measures, notwithstanding the fact that ForeignPolicy.com is actually a credible and respected journal. What has China done in response to the virus? The links are too many to post, but we are all aware that they have quarantined over 50M people in the last few weeks. This was, of course, long after the horse got out of the barn. If this virus has an extended incubation period with high RO rates, while also being robust and having a long contagion rate outside the body, then we are seeing an unnatural virus. To put this in perspective, I am sure you have all seen the numbers for the U.S. when it comes to the flu-

In total, the CDC estimates that up to 42.9 million people got sick during the 2018-2019 flu season, 647,000 people were hospitalized and 61,200 died.

Time.com - but what does this mean?

Over a period of 21 weeks, roughly 1/8th of the population was infected, 1.5% of those infected were hospitalized, and 9.5% of those hospitalized died from the virus, or its complications. HOWEVER, this is an actual death rate of 0.0014%, with 99.9996% of people recovering. Spread by populace numbers, and divided by the beds we have in hospitals, which is 2.4/1000 residents, with a high in urban areas or 5.1/1000 vs rural 1.6/1000 Statista.org (as well as the average time for hospitalization- 4 days), this means that the U.S. has 770,000 hospital beds available and we had 20% vacancy, IF all peoples were hospitalized at the same time. (this will come up again) without that occurrence, and if there were averages of 4 day hospitalizations, technically we could have rotated out this many patients over 36 times!

What makes this virus scary, or at least scarier, is the death rate, vs hospitalizations, vs cured. What do we know? Well, if the Chinese are being honest, in less than 6 weeks (or 30% of our flu season) they have had 15% of our annual rate hospitalized (42,667), wherein ALL known cases require hospitalization, in an area with 3-16% of our population (concentrations are difficult to get here). If Wuhan proper matched the U.S. in beds, then the 2.4/1000 number (and if you read the articles, they argue that the area is lacking in public health treatment) can be used, meaning there are 26,400 beds. That's 20K people without care. Here is the tracker that you can use-

This Johns Hopkins tracker

The crazy number is the healed vs. dead- 4,000 to 1,000? That's a 20% death rate, folks, and we know for a fact that many people are at home awaiting treatment. But what else are we missing in these numbers? Again, assuming that these numbers are accurate, it's really about the ability of this virus to spread rapidly, require mass hospitalizations, and overwhelm the medical system. How many people are regularly treated for renal failure? For emergency appendectomies? For heart attacks, strokes, cancer, etc.? NONE of these people are getting treatment, or at least a ridiculously slim amount. So it isn't just about the Wu Flu, it's about the overwhelmed system, isn't it?

2) What are the true risks to the average American, Brit, or Canadian?
Can this happen in the U.S.? I don't know- But I can say that if the incubation rate is as long as they say it is, we can have hundreds of people infected in the U.S. right now (as well as Canada and the UK), all of them spreading the disease ( a high RO is not required with Super Spreaders) as we sit here now. It is just as feasible that the Health care systems can be overwhelmed, but also possible that the outsized impact will be on those who are NOT sick with the flu, but are victims of standard illnesses. It is also possible that due to the ability of peoples to cheat or bribe their way out of areas that are quarantined, the horse was let out a month ago. What we do know is that rural and urban poor are more likely to continue to work, seek OTC medicines, and avoid the Dr. in first world nations- meaning that once this flu starts spreading, look for exponential growth.

3) Is there an accurate way to track the resiliency and contagious nature of this virus?
Beyond the link I gave you, there is one test case that best answers the questions of how a semi-contained outbreak will be handled in a first world country- the Sick Boat. (Wu, an Exciting new Flu, Stay aboard, in a room with noooo view...! The Siiiiiiiiick Boaaaaaat! Soon you'll be hacking out both your lungs... The Siiiiiiiiick Boaaaaaat... hope you gave all of your loved ones hugs!)
NK Japan News
and finally-

4) Why should I care?

Beyond being human, we should care because this virus shows exactly why engineered viruses are the greatest danger to our collective societies. We would be crazy to think that there isn't a MAD equivalent in this release if it is as bad as people think that it might be in China. (that's mutually assured destruction) And even if it isn't this virus, a slow burn is incredibly dangerous as viruses go, as the amount of people that can or will be infected due to the lack of symptoms can be the key (curse?) to such a worldwide epidemic.

Also, one side note as to the claims regarding the immolation of the dead, and whether it is possible. Again, using NYC as an example, there are over 1,800 funeral homes in the boroughs. That means over 6 people can be burned daily, to full cremation, assuming that they each are limited to one oven. That's 14,800 bodies per day, if necessary. Just saying....

Edit to add this link to The Guardian article regarding RO Rates

Thanks, to everyone who makes it through the OP! Replenish your emergency supplies, or hope you are one of the first people infected so that you get proper care!

a reply to: ThouArtGod


Think about it. Dr. Paul Craig Roberts also wrote on it again on his web site

The U.S. Army Medical Research Institute of Infectious Diseases (USAMRIID) facility with Duke University in Wuhan

Link

The Pentagon in Wuhan? Beyond the U.S. military’s recent expenditures on, and interest in, the use of bats as bioweapons, it is also worth examining the recent studies the military has funded regarding bats and “novel coronaviruses,” such as that behind the recent outbreak, that have taken place within or in close proximity to China.

'NO ONE ASKED QUESTIONS'

Even more troubling to some scientists was the Army's policy of recruiting foreign researchers to work in some of USAMRIID's most secure labs. A steady stream of researchers from China, the former Soviet bloc and other nations passed through the lab in the 1980s and 1990s to work alongside U.S. scientists, according to Army documents and interviews. "It blew me away," said one microbiologist who worked at the lab in the 1980s and early 1990s. "I could have lifted vials of anything and they never would have been missed. There was nothing to stop me." USAMRIID strongly defends its security policies and says there is no evidence that any hazardous microbes in its care were stolen or misused. Security has been sharply tightened since the mid-1990s -- and still further in the past four months, Army officials say.

a reply to: Waterglass

Well, If you are asking me my opinion, then I would say that not only is this an engineered virus, it was released to cull the herd worldwide and to allow China the opportunity to level the playing field. That country (due to the one cild policy of old) has a 300M+ population of men that will soon be a massive drain on their economy.

[shrugs]

Just saying...

When a country makes a biological weapon, which is what we are assuming here, it would surely have developed an antidote....no? And started using it.....

Unfortunatelty, communist countries hide the bad stuff, until they cant. Think Chernobyl.

Something to think about logically and consider when you see the numbers.

China has admitted they only have a limited number of test kits and only do a limited number of tests per day. It controls the numbers they release to the rest of the world.

What it also does is limit who gets tested. Likely they are patients sick enough to need the hospital, meaning they are quite sick already. So that will skew your numbers of death to be a worse ratio than it might otherwise be if you could actually test everyone.

a reply to: lakenheath24

Have you ever read Stephen King's "The Stand"?

The truth is, you need antibodies in order to develop cures and vaccines. Therefore, if it was a newly engineered virus, if it has mutated (the REAL scary part), or if there weren't enough studies done in lab, then there probably isn't[/I] a cure. And there is always the fact that this might be the result of an escaped animal.