What % population decrease would cause collapse of civilisation?

a reply to: CrastneyJPR

Nuke and other power generation is mostly automated at this point, the bodies are there for when stuff breaks and maintenance. So at least in that regard, most utilities would still be operational for a good bit. Distribution networks such as trucking and trains would be the most impacted. I think the main concern is food on shelves, once the capacity for restocking is impacted enough, that's when it hits the fan. Not enough people have food stored or are capable of growing a percentage of their food, as soon as that happens you would have a collapse event.

You're assuming we'd still need the same amount of resources if we had less people? I think the level of sophistication of supply chains is probably advanced enough at this point to adapt to reduced demand rather quickly.

I am sure civilisation would flourish if 99.9% of the population expired tomorrow, leaving several millions to carry on.

Of course, I would like to be a survivor and it would help if everyone spoke English!

a reply to: Raggedyman


Money won't vanish, it will change who owns what and that's about it. Fragile people dies, yes it's sad but they are the one contributing the less for the group, so no big deal. Remove all the money going to the care and the pension of retired people and the economy would trive a lot (not suggesting we actually do this, I really hope I can retire soon) The only thing dangerous would be catastrophic events like atomic winter or large scale emp maybe

Less people = less demand for resources.
After those in more desperate situations kill each other off those left over would be just fine

a reply to: CrastneyJPR
Civilisation would collapse wherever there was shortage of, and competition for, food supplies. In the modern world, a severe breakdown of transportation would be enough.

a reply to: olaru12

It would be an interesting situation, but we are a lot more resilient than some may believe.

Though we may be accustomed to a certain lifestyle, within about a month, most will start to develop a new norm.

We functioned just fine, better in a lot of cases, before computers. We would adjust.

After Hurricane Wilma I was without electricity for "3" months. In the beginning it took a bit of getting used to, but I soon began to enjoy not having the distractions. Waking with the sun and sleeping after it set. Enjoyed sleeping outside on the porch, the sounds, the socialization with neighbors and community.

We would do just fine.

I think it would take a huge culling of the population have a total collapse.

The black death killed off 30-60% of Europe's population and yes it took 20 years to rebound but Im betting we could lose 50% of our population and still be okay. Some countries would collapse and economies would be significantly dampened.

That being said the rate of death would also dictate the collapse. If its drug out you have an ability to respond. If you lose 10% of the population rapidly, then things would break down quickly

Georgia Guidestones say 500million....don't know much about them but that figure sounds about right.

a reply to: Vasa Croe

That number is for a “utopia” not for a collapse of civilization...

There will be no number of deaths possible to collapse civilization...
In today’s age such things will only be tolerated while they are profitable for fellows like Rothschild...
When it threatens profitability the solution to any problem will be swiftly implemented...

Collapse of civilization? Wipeout of aged 40 and under females. Doesn’t matter after that. Sure things could be just peachy economically, but no new births ends it all.

Massaging the numbers down from there. A 40% reduction in birth rate would have a serious impact especially under a continuing hazard such a environmental (nuclear winter, asteroid/comet impact causing a toxic condition, incurable pathogens, pollinators going extinct, etc.), unending economic disaster (energy production eliminated, loss of raw materials, inability to transport finished goods effectively and efficiently, etc) or unending warfare due to factioning among populations (mental instability, extreme tribalism, etc.)

An Ebola like disease with a Spanish Flu level of spread and duration would be complex and felt for a long time. But humans as a species would bounce back eventually. It would change long-standing traditions though to diversify genetics otherwise we would eventually mutate into sterility.

originally posted by: 5StarOracle
There will be no number of deaths possible to collapse civilization...
In today’s age such things will only be tolerated while they are profitable for fellows like Rothschild...
When it threatens profitability the solution to any problem will be swiftly implemented...

I agree and I would add that I kind of doubt this is anything to really worry about anyway because TPTB would already know if it were and Keeping people alive and living in a state of constant fear and desperation is usually almost always more profitable for them.

having thought about this overnight

the answer is not - how many people do we need to maintain civilisation

the more important question is - will the survivors work to maintain civilisation ?

in 1900 - the world population was just 1.6 billion

a world today - that awoke to find 6 billion " gone " would - if the survivors work - progress far faster than the 1.6 billion of 1900

a reply to: CrastneyJPR

you could wipe out most of africa and India as well as places like Pakistan and Indonesia and the stock market would freak out and crash the world economy, but civilization itself would barely notice.

Wipe out 5% of the EU or US population and we could see destabilization leading to war.

If one randomly chosen extra person were to die each second somewhere on Earth, what impact would it have on the world population?

—Guy Petzall

what-if.xkcd.com: What If?

Just a bit of fun with the question (because if you can't laugh about life, or death, what is there?).

And c'mon xkcd! What about Stu Suttcliffe?? And if you believe the CT, original Paul also died... which puts it at 33%

I'm gonna say that what if the Wu Flu contaminated the hospital and the doctors and staff started dying off.
No one to take care of the sick.
Then the dominos will fall

originally posted by: NightSkyeB4Dawn
a reply to: CrastneyJPR

I agree the number of affected people required to shift the tipping point, is much lower than we think.

In the average home, one person taking ill affects the entire household, so it is not just one person that is removed from their normal schedule.

I agree. Just think about how many single Mom households there are in the U.S. alone. If the Mom dies, who will care for the children? In a household with Dad, Mom and kids, if the main breadwinner dies, what becomes of the rest of the family? How long does it take for a business to collapse when the owner dies? I'm guessing not long.

The Domino Effect could be quite great. with other side-effects.....more people becoming homeless, joblessness, even suicides. If this gets out of control the side-effects could be unimaginable. But let's hope that doesn't happen! I think most first world countries could have a different outcome than China just because we are less crowded, eat food differently and have better sanitation.

Sorry I have to admit I love doom-porn!! Best to ALL of the World!!

One person being severely ill or dying, can impact quite a large number of people and factors.

I just got a text message asking for volunteers to change their schedule because the spouse of one of my co-workers is headed to hospital after a freak accident.

On the surface it seems like a small problem but we are already 3 people short. We have 4 brand new employees that are not ready to fly on their own without adequate support, and a new inexperienced Director. This may cause a operational shut down for a brief spell.

That is just because of one person and a situation that was not expected. Make that 10 people and you can see how things can expotenially go haywire.

originally posted by: FreeFalling
I'm gonna say that what if the Wu Flu contaminated the hospital and the doctors and staff started dying off.
No one to take care of the sick.
Then the dominos will fall

Your post and the comment from NightSkyeB4Dawn that I agreed with earlier could be taken together. In Night's case, a single person off work due to an unforeseen accident caused chaos. In my case the business I work for lost a couple of people in my department and are stretched thin over their region. If just a few people get sick, the stress on the remaining workers would cause a few (like myself) who aren't married to the job, to up an quit. This could cause a chain reaction that could lose some accounts, cause more cuts and extreme measures along with the added stress, etc.

Imagine such a scenario in the health industry when you consider there is a limited pool of health professionals to take up the extra work of those who are absent due to a pandemic. In a pandemic, it is likely that more health professionals will be infected by taking care of the sick than average Joe workers, but it seems like every industry is already optimizing the productivity of their workers to the max already. So I wonder how many people out sick would start bankrupting a bunch of major businesses? How many businesses have to fail to be considered a collapse? Would a collapse be when the essential institutions like hospitals fail?

anyone like another guess at this, now that more cases are appearing across the world?
If any of my family get flu like symptoms I'm putting us all in isolated quarrantine, and working from home, and getting any meds dropped at our drive by friends. zero contact till we're all over it. If we all die, at least we've not knowingly infected anyone else.
If I don't turn up to work, the knock on effect is negligible, in the grand scheme of things.
I'm a local govt worker issuing fines to utility companies when they make mistakes on streetworks permits. not an essential job for civilisation.

Hopefully in a few months time this website will still be up and running, and accessible, and we'll mostly all still be posting here.