Corona Virus Updates Part 2

originally posted by: Knotachance
Hey new here . My head hurts because this thing doesn’t make sense .i need things to make sense ! Just wondering if anyone has thought maybe China is actually quarantining itself from the world. Maybe they have a time released bioweapon.is that possible? I know we can have time release medicine/vitamins.
I’ve read other articles in which they have far more deaths and infections from other things but don’t shut down. (I don’t know how to add them )
It’s just my tin foil theory .

Not a bad theory...

a reply to: AgelessOne

Isn’t that the same?

Posted a few hours ago:

The early outbreak data largely follows the exponential growth. We estimated that the meanR ranges from 2.24 (95%CI: 1.96-2.55) to 3.58 (95%CI: 2.89-4.39) associated with 8-fold to 2-fold increase in the reporting rate. We demonstrated that changes in reporting rate substantially affect estimates of R CONCLUSION: The mean estimate ofR for the 2019-nCoV ranges from 2.24 to 3.58, and significantly larger than 1. Our findings indicate the potential of 2019-nCoV to cause outbreaks.

Preliminary estimation of the basic reproduction number of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in China, from 2019 to 2020: A data-driven analysis in the early phase of the outbreak. - Physicians Weekly

Will continue to look for reputable and reliable information to post as it is located.

a reply to: Pommer89

re Paddington station closure the other day
www.google.co.uk...
I did see the same on tv as well but no link for that one

a reply to: toysforadults

1. Be careful what you wish for.
And 2. This is pretty close to what WOULD happen near where I live....FLINT Mi ...no I don't live in Flint but too close for my comfort. Perhaps you'd like to come visit downtown in the event even a small panic broke out? No?

a reply to: jadedANDcynical

Translation?

a reply to: jadedANDcynical

thanks for posting - exactly something I said a few pages back about the R0 value fluctuating based on limited data and that experts so far agree this thing is highly contagious and we will likely see major growth in # of confirmed cases over the next few months

originally posted by: muzzleflash
It's the Cold!

tell that to the Chinese. especially families of those that died from it. heck, tell them that in person. you're so certain "it's the cold" there's nothing to be afraid of, right?

there are no "decades of research" behind THIS particular virus. instead, there's this:


watch it, then tell us what's your scientific background. you may share your own research as well. repeating what WHO says and what governments say isn't good enough here.

originally posted by: pasiphae
a reply to: muzzleflash

If you listen to the WHO briefing that just happened a little while ago you would know that even THEY don't know what we're dealing with. They are JUST NOW sending a team of experts to China and they clearly say they don't have enough data. Even with the cases outside of China they only have 38% of the reports back so even outside of China they don't have enough information. It's on YouTube and was just live streamed a short time ago. I don't know the correct way to post links since I haven't been on here in a really long time. The first 15 minutes is just them getting seated. He does say not to panic but it's reasonable to be worried.

www.youtube.com...

Correct we don't have all the answers yet, but we can anticipate a lot of things accurately based on basic info we already know. That's how the early estimates held with decent accuracy, because there's only a few aspects of this that are currently unknown.

My point wasn't really about people worrying *per se*, but instead it was that we have all these people providing all of these inaccurate graphs and charts and assuming that it's legit info. The data is being skewed purposely to make this virus look worse than it is, so yes it's frustrating to see so many ppl here at ATS believe in it unquestioningly.

I think we have a huge problem with faulty data and automatic assumption/belief and I'll be damned if I read in silence as everyone goes crazy without even bringing up the fact all the data is flawed, some of it on purpose even. Why would someone skew the data on purpose to make it look worse than it is?

a reply to: toysforadults

Each infected person will go on to infect 2.24 to 3.58 others. This number will change as more data is provided.

a reply to: jadedANDcynical

thank you

originally posted by: FamCore
a reply to: jadedANDcynical

thanks for posting - exactly something I said a few pages back about the R0 value fluctuating based on limited data and that experts so far agree this thing is highly contagious and we will likely see major growth in # of confirmed cases over the next few months

so this leads me back to my question about how 1 person on a 737 or 747 for 12 hours or more can only infect 1 or 2 more people??

originally posted by: muzzleflash

originally posted by: pasiphae
a reply to: muzzleflash

If you listen to the WHO briefing that just happened a little while ago you would know that even THEY don't know what we're dealing with. They are JUST NOW sending a team of experts to China and they clearly say they don't have enough data. Even with the cases outside of China they only have 38% of the reports back so even outside of China they don't have enough information. It's on YouTube and was just live streamed a short time ago. I don't know the correct way to post links since I haven't been on here in a really long time. The first 15 minutes is just them getting seated. He does say not to panic but it's reasonable to be worried.

www.youtube.com...

Correct we don't have all the answers yet, but we can anticipate a lot of things accurately based on basic info we already know. That's how the early estimates held with decent accuracy, because there's only a few aspects of this that are currently unknown.

My point wasn't really about people worrying *per se*, but instead it was that we have all these people providing all of these inaccurate graphs and charts and assuming that it's legit info. The data is being skewed purposely to make this virus look worse than it is, so yes it's frustrating to see so many ppl here at ATS believe in it unquestioningly.

I think we have a huge problem with faulty data and automatic assumption/belief and I'll be damned if I read in silence as everyone goes crazy without even bringing up the fact all the data is flawed, some of it on purpose even. Why would someone skew the data on purpose to make it look worse than it is?

We have "all of these inaccurate grpahs and charts" which are created using the numbers that are out there and we should ignore them and replace them with - what you think based on the fluff between your ears.

Think I'll go with the charts and numbers thanks.

a reply to: muzzleflash

 Why would someone skew the data on purpose to make it look worse than it is?

It's good for business when people panic buy, the same happens in the US when people think a gun grab is coming.

a reply to: Joeshiloh

Joe, I actually skim the thread looking for your latest update before I catch up with the other thread comments so please keep posting. I won't click on links to be cautious, so your updates keep me informed.

www.dublinlive.ie...
First suspected case in ireland

originally posted by: ARM1968

originally posted by: muzzleflash

originally posted by: Power_Semi

originally posted by: muzzleflash

originally posted by: Adphil28
a reply to: muzzleflash

Pure speculation here( should change my nick😉) but if China was given a s# trade deal by trump would shutting down all manufacture not cripple America too? In a no win scenario do you think that might be the goal of this? - pure conjecture and speculation on that one though🤷🏽‍♂️

It will affect the entire world's economy dramatically if it keeps going for a few more weeks.
We could enter a recession far deeper than the 2008 fiasco.

We simply need to lift the quarantine and have everyone go back to their normal lives. That's the only viable solution.

A few thousand deaths is a small price to pay for saving the economy, because that economy keeps the 7 billion of us fed and alive. Without it (a good economy) most of us will not survive. They gotta end the quarantine asap.

Theoretically however, it is plausible that Europe and the US can survive the loss of China's manufacturing and cheap labor. We will need to change our habits and alter our economic policies however to mitigate all of the problems. It would be very difficult and challenging, and we would have to claw our way out of a very deep recession, but it is doable and we could survive without them. Our population can't keep exploding though, and we can't keep borrowing money to pay for everything either.

So yes we can overcome the worst case scenario (complete economic collapse), but it will be a very difficult and challenging road. China's predicament is far worse than ours however, they could go into revolution and end up in complete chaos.

That's why I am baffled by their decision to call the biggest quarantine in history after the (mild) virus was already global. Why would they shoot themselves in both feet?

Wow President Xi is an idiot.

I bet it hasn't even occured to him that quarantining practically the entire country will effect the economy.

I'm going to ring him up right now and tell him muzzle flash says he's a big dumb ass and muzzle flash says he needs to end the quarantine right now because muzzle flash says it's no worse than a cold and muzzle flash says hardly anyone dies and muzzle flash clearly knows far better than the actual people on the ground in China.

Thanks muzzle flash, you've just saved the world with your amazing insight and knowledge.

Hip hip hussar.

My posts are getting through, I won an ad hominem reply!

To respond so condescendingly to me without being able to combat the points I'm making is sort of an admission that I gotcha. You just dislike me for challenging your preconceived notions and paranoia.

That's ok though, I'm not posting in here challenging you guys "to be the cool guy". That's lame anyways. I'm willing to be the guy none of you can stand if that's the price I gotta pay to tell you the TRUTH. I will always choose the TRUTH over any persons opinion of me.

Shoot the messenger all you want, I'm feeling bullet proof today.
Don't care what anyone thinks of me, I only care about the TRUTH.

You’re simply trying to dominate, stifle and derail this thread. Very transparent. My last reply to you and I would advise others to allow you to chat to yourself from now on.

I accept your surrender.

You clearly cannot handle a fair debate and so after levying your personal attack, you now bow out and will ignore the person questioning your belief system?

God why are you guys so damn offended when you're proven wrong? Are you not human beings? Can't ever admit to being wrong?

I advise you and others to learn the basics of ATS and debate.

a reply to: toysforadults

Sample seating chart for a 2019-nCoV aircraft contact investigation showing risk levels based on distance from the infected traveler.

...

High Risk

Living in the same household as, being an intimate partner of, or providing care in a nonhealthcare setting (such as a home) for a person with symptomatic laboratory-confirmed 2019-nCoV infection without using recommended precautions for home care and home isolation
The same risk assessment applies for the above-listed exposures to a person diagnosed clinically with 2019-nCoV infection outside of the United States who did not have laboratory testing.
Travel from Hubei Province, China

Medium Risk

Close contact with a person with symptomatic laboratory-confirmed 2019-nCoV infection, and not having any exposures that meet a high-risk definition.
The same risk assessment applies for close contact with a person diagnosed clinically with 2019-nCoV infection outside of the United States who did not have laboratory testing.
On an aircraft, being seated within 6 feet (two meters) of a traveler with symptomatic laboratory-confirmed 2019-nCoV infection; this distance correlates approximately with 2 seats in each direction (refer to graphic above)
Living in the same household as, an intimate partner of, or caring for a person in a nonhealthcare setting (such as a home) to a person with symptomatic laboratory-confirmed 2019-nCoV infection while consistently using recommended precautions for home care and home isolation
Travel from mainland China outside Hubei Province AND not having any exposures that meet a high-risk definition

Interim US Guidance for Risk Assessment and Public Health Management of Persons with Potential 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) Exposure in Travel-associated or Community Settings - CDC

a reply to: jadedANDcynical

perfect thanks

a reply to: Pommer89

There were other suspected cases in Dublin already (both were apparently "cleared"), so it isn't the first suspected case there

www.breakingnews.ie...

www.irishtimes.com...