Corona Virus Updates

originally posted by: ARM1968
I completely agree. The Chinese, though, must KNOW it’s potential to be reacting so vigorously. I believe it is bad enough as is. But I have a bad feeling it’s worse. a reply to: DaRAGE

With 23 Million on lockdown, it's way worse then they tell us,

originally posted by: DiddyC
a reply to: ARM1968

New black death, get ready for one world government, come get your shots, not vaccinated.. into the "Re-education" camp with you!!

Maybe not THAT bad

originally posted by: Hellas

originally posted by: ARM1968
I completely agree. The Chinese, though, must KNOW it’s potential to be reacting so vigorously. I believe it is bad enough as is. But I have a bad feeling it’s worse. a reply to: DaRAGE

With 23 Million on lockdown, it's way worse then they tell us,

More like 60-100 million now. Plans to seal off Beijing.

originally posted by: ARM1968

originally posted by: Hellas

originally posted by: ARM1968
I completely agree. The Chinese, though, must KNOW it’s potential to be reacting so vigorously. I believe it is bad enough as is. But I have a bad feeling it’s worse. a reply to: DaRAGE

With 23 Million on lockdown, it's way worse then they tell us,

More like 60-100 million now. Plans to seal off Beijing.

Nobody even gives out travel instructions for those regions. Like everything is good.

I also read that the virus needs 14 days to incubate and does NOT always come with fever. So those temperature readings on airports are useless

a reply to: Agit8dChop

Put 1 case in Berlin on your list, too

I think what happens in Shanghai is going to be a good barometer of how much to worry. As the economic centre for trade and finance locking that place down would be a huge hit for them, and something they wouldn't do unless things were bad IMHO.

The Chinese Communist Party has a track record of ONLY lying about this kind of stuff. Generally casualties in any situation are under-reported by at least 10x. Why would any of you think they are being truthful now? Why are they continually taking down internal social media posts about it that totally contradict their position?

Pro tip: They are lying -- while at the same time publicly threatening lying with harsh punishment. It's what they do.

Panic does nothing for anyone, but dismissing this as a nothing burger is pretty naive. It doesn' t take tea leaves to see something has them rattled.

WeChat just went crazy with rumors that Shenzhen will quarantine within 24 hours.

Many friends in China are scared as all get out. Some I talked to are going to refuse going to work until the crisis is over.

Why the hell haven’t any countries refused flights from China?

I understand their citizens need to get back so give a Warning first.

Ok I see that Singapore refused one.

originally posted by: blackrabbit1
I think what happens in Shanghai is going to be a good barometer of how much to worry. As the economic centre for trade and finance locking that place down would be a huge hit for them, and something they wouldn't do unless things were bad IMHO.

The high ranking members of the CCP are likely holed up figuring if they lock down everything, they can ride it out far away. I think in a normal situation, you would be right, but I think if the SHTF to the point where Shanghai is hit hard, there won't be much point in locking it down. The next couple of weeks will be very telling.

Was just reading earlier in this thread how the OC now has a confirmed case which isn't what I want to read since I'm flying into there today for a week at work.

Overall I'm still not worried as this is a fraction of the damage the annual flu does but still it's interesting watching it play out in real time.

abc7.com...

a reply to: DaRAGE

My bad, I misread this chart. 6% of all deaths are flu related. Link

But hey, the spanish flu killed 15-25% of those infected.

a reply to: Dfairlite

Remember CCP lies their ass off. Nothing we are hearing is the truth. Their govt system is incapable of producing the truth.

My recommendation from living there is to multiple any bad number by 2 or 3 at a minimum. Look at the response scale, we all know it.

Th nurse video is quite scary if 90k infected. The CCP loves their info silos. My assumption would be either 90k in one district* or city.

*District is lowest level of governance in a Chinese city. Population can be 25k to 1-2 million in a single district.

This is absolutely insane and fascinating, if we can grab valid data from this initial outbreak it will save lives in the future. It appears like a legitimate concern, it came out of one of the 3 predicted causes of a pandemic, a densely populated nation with a significant disparity of public health programs combined with close proximity of numerous species. The others being a combat zone with people being in close proximity to animals like what happened with the Spanish Flu. H1N1 was brought by Chinese migrant workers to Europe, it mutated across species and then was carried back the US from Europe by Soldiers and outbreaks occurred in Kansas and Mass, the rest is history. The only other predicted cause is Disease "X" that could come out of a deforestation zone in a rain-forest.

The Chinese are freaked out by something, any nation would do the same to prevent panic and facilitate containment, 50,000 alleged troops against a city of millions is nothing and chaos would occur if they attempted to break through the quarantine. Many militaries prepare for this type of scenario, it is present in numerous professional development courses across many nations focusing on protecting civilians, containing the outbreak and dealing with insurgent activity stemming from the anarchy created. Sifting through the numerous disinformation campaigns is a nightmare and it seems to be occurring on all sides.

Major red flags that I see are stable fomite transmission, stable airborne transmission and shedding of the virus during the incubation period. Transmission from host to 1-4 additional people is not good, with super spreaders hitting up to 18. Once this thing gets in the wild, chances of mutation increase and it could get worse. I doubt a vaccine could be developed in time, most programs rely on herd immunity and it may mutate too quickly to be viable, vaccines against viruses are not 100% due to mutation potential and medication development is difficult because they often have the same proteins we do in our body. The virus does not care, it just wants to reproduce its genetic material. What interests me are reports of Chinese doctors “curing” the disease in one patient.

Twitter seems to be exploding with reports of patients dropping from what appears to be septic shock/hypersensitivity reaction/cytokine storm type effects that look very bloody and cause a huge fluid shift across membranes and vessels. I include the 3 together because if they are testing new drugs on these patients to block the virus from binding to cells across ace-ii receptors or signaling the body to produce immune cells targeting the proteins in nCoV-2019 in lung tissue we could see similar impacts.

Not blocking ACE specifically enough for viral binding across cells could crash blood pressure in the host and cause a multitude of problems across already leaky vessels, especially as pH drops in the host. Developing a monoclonal antibody (mAbs) treatment delivered via nebulized aerosol or the intravenous could also cause a significant immune response in the host if the response is exaggerated and they miss their mark. mAbs are amazing, they are created from combining a cancer cell with a B-cell from an animal host and they produce antibodies that target a specific protein or antigen. Antibodies are helpful because they group pathogens together for easy removal, block pathogen binding and signal the immune system to target a pathogen. So in theory, a mAb can be developed for pretty much anything.

Who knows, it could be a combination of the disease, desperately trying out new drugs, plus its influenza season. Viral pneumonia can cause septic shock, so can novel treatment protocols. I saw reports of death certificates blaming all kinds of aspects I don’t know how lenient treatment protocols are in China but they seem to be very liberal with cause of death and vague in their statements.

link

From the link

It is first time for China since 1949 to shut down the outbound channels of such a large provincial capital. Wuhan is also known as a thoroughfare to nine provinces and the largest transportation hub in Central China. Therefore, it is undoubtedly difficult to make the decision to close the city down. It needs much courage and rationality to take this step.

As a media organization, we want to pay tribute to the city of Wuhan and its over 10 million citizens. We also believe that the entire Chinese nation will pay tribute to Wuhan citizens who think of the big picture at this critical moment.

The Chinese people will be with the citizens of Wuhan. Only when China wins the battle of defending Wuhan can there be a national victory of fighting against the new pneumonia. Chinese society will pay close attention to the progress of Wuhan's epidemic control.

I'm putting it down to a poor grasp of english but if that was worded the same way in an english speaking country i would read that as ' we've abandoned wuhan to its fate to try and protect the rest of our population'

a reply to: SpartanStoic

While I agree as a rule of thumb, if the WHO is in there then the count is probably pretty accurate.

a reply to: SpartanStoic

Just watched some videos from china in regards to this.

This is worse than what is being let on. By a far margin.

I'm glad the Chinese are being so proactive.

I would absolutely hate to see how India handles this if it ever catches it.

originally posted by: Dfairlite
a reply to: SpartanStoic

While I agree as a rule of thumb, if the WHO is in there then the count is probably pretty accurate.

Do you have any source that says the WHO is there besides their local Wuhan (read CCP or native citizen) office personnel? I was not able to find any any. I would expect they are relying on those people to report -- they are only going to report what the CCP says is ok.

This is the latest WHO update I could find on their site. This seems to confirm that they are relying on the local/Chinese health offices.

Novel Coronavirus - China

On 11 and 12 January 2020, WHO received further detailed information from the National Health Commission about the outbreak.

WHO is reassured of the quality of the ongoing investigations and the response measures implemented in Wuhan, and the commitment to share information regularly.

Even if WHO is on ground in Wuhan (they are not, we would know) the numbers would be wrong.

You don’t understand China like people who have lived there do. Their system is not capable of delivering the truth. The lowest people will always lie to the higher ups to save their necks. The higher ups will always lie to save their necks. The numbers will always get reported to save face. That’s the way it is in China. It will be that way until 50 or 60 years after CCP fails.

Plus you’re assuming WHO is honest. That’s a mighty big assumption.

Reading on WeChat now;

Shanghai quarantine imminent
Shenzhen quarantine imminent
Roads between Tianjin and Beijing are blocked
Many villages and towns voluntarily sealing roads in
Many people scared to leave their homes
Massive traffic accidents as people flee via highway

There’s also some videos on Twitter of a lot of this stuff. I’ve verified much of what I e read that way.

originally posted by: SpartanStoic
WeChat just went crazy with rumors that Shenzhen will quarantine within 24 hours.

Did you read that yourself on WeChat? I can't find anything about this rumor....

if it is true, then that's beyond insane!
Doesn't Shenzhen have the 3rd largest harbor in the world?