Corona Virus Updates

originally posted by: SaddledMummy
a reply to: MrRCflying

True death toll IS 40%, all other outcomings may change in the future... Use math.

May I ask you to use your math.

I am curious of how you came up with a 40% death toll.

50% of 17,498 is 8,749.

I just used 50% because it is half of the total people. Obviously 40% is only 10% less.

If you are saying the true death toll is 40%, then that means that almost half of the people that get infected die.

Did I math wrong?

I truly hope this thread won't evolve to/for updates by those of us who will be infected

a reply to: Tempussolo

That's why I said current, as in at the moment per the numbers published. Just simple math using two numbers. I didn't speculate on more dying or infected. Just where it stands when I posted on those numbers. Obviously those numbers are changing daily, hourly. Do I think any of those numbers are correct? Nope. Do I think more of those 17000+ will die? Yes. Will more be infected? Of course.

I challenge you to find any reputable paper quoting the mortality rate is 40%.
Common sense and simple math logic states Not even close. Could it end up being that high? It's possible, but extremely doubtful. Spanish flu was 20% at the highest estimate with estimated 500 million infected.

Yes, we could speculate all day long. Yes, obviously the mortality rate would rise if xx number of the 17,000+ end up dying but nobody knows where the number of cases /recovered/dead will peak or end.

So, the mortality rate is anyone's guess right now. Once the virus infection is believed to have peaked then will have better estimate. But, will we ever know close to true numbers coming out of China? Probably not anytime soon.

I have my opinion, you have yours, lets move on and see what happens with the virus outbreak/cases.

a reply to: all2human
I’d have my doubts on being allowed a mobile device while quarantined ( if whoever is well enough to even use it!) if that were the case surely there would be posts on social media from the guys brought back and in quarantine atm?

a reply to: Adphil28
Check this video out... CNS agent? Seems odd many videos if arms uo and seizure

twitter.com...

Seems to be between Germany and USA atm, looks like Germany went up another 1 today?, maybe someone knows about that one?

Maybe it is two different problems.
A coronavirus that is not that deadly, and another pathogen that acts on the central nervous system.
Outside of China, we have seen the coronavirus and from inside China, the videos of prostrate twitching victims are those that have been hit by something else.

a reply to: Diamondgeezur

That video jumps from 6.50 to 7.00 at the end. What happened in the missing 10 minutes? Why would it jump like that?

a reply to: Pommer89
That is epilepsy attack, and very typical one.

a reply to: liejunkie01

"My math" adds up confirmed deaths + confirmed healed patients and then i take a %. That is a current mortality rate, it excludes infected peoples.

a reply to: SaddledMummy

A bit to high of a % for a pandemic. The virus will not spread with a mortality rate like that. First I have heard of it being so high. 🤷‍♂️ Maybe your right, no one really knows.

Tried to look up if a virus can cause seizures like in the videos posted earlier. It is out of my expertise but it seems like it is possible that a virus interacts in such a way with our immune system that you get a seizure. This study for example is the one that I found (not related to coronavirus). Does anyone here have the knowledge to explain in layman terms how the coronavirus can cause seizures? They do not look like high fever shaking to me with the patient's hands going up.

Several neurotropic DNA viruses, including Herpes and cytomegalovirus also commonly cause seizures in infected patients. In the clinical setting, the cause of seizures seen during viral encephalitis is usually attributed to acute febrile responses. However, it has become apparent that the mechanisms behind seizure generation during viral encephalitis are likely to be much more complicated. For example, CD4+ and CD8+ T cells possibly through their secretion of interferon‐γ, appear to play an important role in determining neuronal responses when challenged with kainic acid. In addition, the ability of the human immunodeficiency virus, transactivating protein to modulate NMDA signaling possibly triggering seizures, highlights the fact that elements of the antiviral response and even virally derived proteins are capable of directly manipulating neuronal function. Understanding the complex relationships between the CNS, the immune system, and invading pathogens is a critical step in understanding the pathogenesis of seizures seen during viral infections and informing the development of novel therapies.

onlinelibrary.wiley.com... .x

a reply to: dollukka
Ok thanks for clarifying I didnt know that why i did say at end it may be misinformation

Also I just found this on twitter
Bromley, london

twitter.com...

Again may be misinformation

A death rate of 40% would sure explain China’s reaction a bit more clearly. I for one understand your figure perfectly. It makes sense and is a simple function of known cured vs know deceased.

However I also understand those who question it because it seems highly unlikely that of the 17,000 infected 40% will die. The trouble is we don’t know. China is not being transparent. There could be thousands dead in their Wuhan homes, there might not be.

Something is going on out there and it’s bad - but in reality we don’t know what. Is it just Coronavirus? Is there and additional component. Did several things escape the lab? We may never know.

Treatment with HIV drugs is interesting, especially when you think of those genetically altered twin girls who were not who are immune to HIV. Would they therefore be immune to this virus? Makes you wonder.

a reply to: Bicent

Heh, im not read off this number somewhere, i add deaths+heals/deaths*100 because noticing all people and organisations taking % from infected people. So if tomorrow we have millions of infected, but still not enough deaths, then mortality % drops 0,0+

That math is not real, this is more like authorities tuning statistics.

Well Ive got my Peking Opera mask and Groucho Marx sunglasses Im right to roll....hint keep looking at the stats Outside of China

originally posted by: SaddledMummy
a reply to: Bicent

Heh, im not read off this number somewhere, i add deaths+heals/deaths*100 because noticing all people and organisations taking % from infected people. So if tomorrow we have millions of infected, but still not enough deaths, then mortality % drops 0,0+

That math is not real, this is more like authorities tuning statistics.

Wrong math application though. So we can rest easier!
You used percent diff

That formula you shared is a percent difference calculation of dead people to cured withou covering the those NOT DEAD.

That calculation you are using is the one used to verify equipment is working of how much error is in the system.

We need the 440 reported deaths to be divided by 17000 to get the current mortality rate.

2.6%

Still bad but not 40%.

el dublo posto

Japan Quarantines Cruise Ship After Passenger Infected With Coronavirus

www.theepochtimes.com...

Japan’s health ministry confirmed it quarantined a cruise ship that arrived in Yokohama on Monday night after a male passenger was found to have been infected with coronavirus, which has triggered quarantines around China and global health fears. The Japanese Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare said that dozens of quarantine officers are checking the health of around 2,500 passengers on the ship, Kyodo News reported.

Princess Cruises, which is a subsidiary of Carnival Cruises, told Bloomberg that the passenger embarked on the Diamond Princess ship in Yokohama on Jan. 20 and disembarked on Jan. 25. The ship then continued its trip to take other passengers to Yokohama. On Saturday, that passenger tested positive for coronavirus. The firm said that 2,666 passengers and 1,045 crew are on board the quarantined vessel. The delay will last 24 hours.

5 days the guy has been on this ship... thats 5 days with all those passengers!